There hasn't been much attention paid to the Kurds, becasue as far as rebuilding Iraq, they have been our best ally. But the Iranians and Turks hate the Kurds, and if they were to attack/invade Northern Iraq it would be a disaster. We are in a pretty dangerous situation, and are really standing alone.
If they decimated our army on the ground there and maybe knocked out I dunno, NYC and DC, I don't know if we have the political will to bring about conscription to rebuild and respond on a global level. That's probably their gambit, that we will fold and go home.
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We screwed the pooch in Iraq. We did not fight the war theright way, now it may be too late to get it done for good. Israel rolled over in Lebanon. They quit too soon and are giving up too much.
The muslims in the region see a US and Israel free ME within their reach. If any real alliances form there then the chance of a full-scale, region-wide land war happening this decade is increased exponentially. And, it would be the US and Israel against Syria, Egypt, Iran, Turkey, Iraq factions, Hamas, Hezbollah, PA, Jordan...with fifth column terrorist active within the borders of both our countries. It is more dangerous than you suggest.