Posted on 08/17/2006 11:38:15 AM PDT by John Carey
Just suppose the United States and Israel agreed to withdraw gracefully from Lebanon, limit the destruction and bloodshed, and put this chapter behind them.
Now, conceivably, the big task can be tackled.
On September 1, unless Iran desists in its pursuit of nuclear weapons, it will be time for a confrontation between the US and Iran.
We can expect some sanctions against Iran then in two weeks or so. These are warranted by the UN.
"They will be well-deserved," Under-Secretary of State Nicholas Burns told reporters Thursday. "It's not a mystery to the Iranians what is going to happen."
For his part, Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has vowed not to give an inch.
“The Iranian people stand by their rights with solidarity. They cannot deprive Iran of its undeniable rights with these sessions and paper-shuffling," Ahmadinejad said in remarks aimed at UN Security Council members on Thursday.
(Excerpt) Read more at johnib.wordpress.com ...
Accountability Time In Israel
By John E. Carey
August 17, 2006
1445 EDT
There are some simple rules of accountability in the U.S. military and in other places in the world. These can be rather ruthless as they enforce strict guidelines of ethics, personal performance and professional achievement.
The people of Israel must make their own assessment of their leaders in this war. But if the tenants of personal accountability followed by the U.S. military are enforced, there will be some changes at the top of Israel’s leadership team in the weeks ahead.
We therefore briefly review some of the players during the last two months or so in Israel.
Foreign Minister
“There can no longer be militias and terrorist organizations such as Hezbollah.”
These words were spoken by Israel’s Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni to der SPIEGEL on July 25, 2006.
This promise (or assertion?) was not fulfilled.
Moreover, Ms. Livni was absent from the United Nations in New York while that august body crafted the terms of the cease fire agreement. When she prepared to leave Israel, less than 24 hours before the cease fire was finalized in New York, the Prime Minister sent Mr. Shimon Peres instead of his Foreign Minister.
Ms. Livni will most probably be asked to leave the government.
Defense Minister
Israeli Defense Minister Amir Peretz should retire.
Israel lost 118 Israeli soldiers and 39 civilians in the conflict that began July 12, when Hezbollah captured two Israeli soldiers in a cross-border raid. Reservists also complained of lack of essential equipment.
There were three key objectives of the war:
--Elimination of Hezbollah’s rockets.
--Disruption or annihilation of Hezbollah.
--Return of captured Israeli soldiers.
None of these objectives were met.
The people of Israel now have a diminished confidence in the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF). Israel’s enemies are surely emboldened that the IDF is now no longer seen as invincible.
Mr. Peretz is already trying to implicate defense chiefs in his downfall. As public criticism of the war's handling mounted in Israel, the Haaretz daily quoted Defense Minister Amir Peretz Wednesday as saying top military officers did not relay all relevant information about Hezbollah's arsenal after he took office in May.
There are other controversies involving Israeli Defense Minister Amir Peretz but they are of no consequence. The fact that Israel waged a war so unsuccessfully, and flattened much of southern Lebanon in the process, is a responsibility that clearly rests upon his doorstep.
Prime Minister
Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, already under fire for his handling of the Lebanon war, is facing a possible probe over a Jerusalem property deal.
Olmert and his wife are to be summoned for questioning over the deal by the government's top watchdog, the left-leaning Haaretz newspaper reported on Thursday.
But this could all be window dressing.
Mister Olmert led his nation into war and then lost the war.
Mr. Olmert’s “on again, off again” handling of the IDF manacled generals in the field. His famous 48 hour air assault cease fire was a terrific failure. By withholding the main thrust of the ground offensive to the Litani River while diplomats dithered in New York, Mr. Olmert handcuffed his generals and needlessly put lives at risk.
As Shmuel Rosner reminded Israeli readers in the Haaretz newspaper on Thursday, “This is not a Presidency - it's the constant coalition of the willing, and the weaker the Prime Minister gets, the faster he will be abandoned by his partners.”
Or, as observer Noah Pollak wrote, “To most Israelis, supporters of Israel, and especially to the IDF soldiers I spoke to on the border over the past few days, the cessation of hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah that recently went into effect is viewed as a cruel indignity, a dangerous projection of Israeli weakness and equivocation, and a plucking of defeat from the jaws of victory.”
The people of Israel, we expect, will come to their own conclusions on Mr. Olmert.
On The Rise?
So who may be on the rise in Israel? Perhaps Bibi Netanyahu.
Former Prime Minister and hard liner Mr. Binyamin (Bibi) Netanyahu, currently the Opposition Leader, said this week the government needed unity but also needed a careful self-examination concerning the war against Hizbullah terrorists. He criticized the Olmert administration for not declaring an emergency situation at the outset of the war. The former prime minister also attacked Prime Minister Olmert for not accomplishing the return of two kidnapped IDF soldiers and the dis-arming of Hizbullah.
During a May 2006 visit to Israel I asked a civilian working as a consultant to the Ministry of Defense (ex IDF) what will they do to resolve the Iran problem?
He answered that Israel was hoping that the US resolves this one without involving them.
As I replied to you earlier today while the US takes care of Iran, Israel is freed up to take care of Syria!
Voila, two cancers are removed, in the same timeline, from the region. What will Hezbollah do then?
Peace and Freedom…ah dream on monsieur Carey!
Unfortunately, our State Department has cobbled together a package of bribes and carrots for Iran that includes giving them nuclear reactors, fuel, etc. along with all sorts of promised help on international trade, development of their communications networks, et al. I guess they figure it worked so well with North Korea, let's do it again. On the other hand, the mullahs and Ahmanutjob are probably so confident they can get everything they want without even appearing to play ball that they'll most likely reject it.
Jocko: I think the two of us have this figured, mon ami!
John
Argus: I think we just have to wait and see on this...
John
The United States isn't IN Lebanon. And why should Israel withdraw 1 foot while terrorists are at the doorway, firing and threatening to fire into Israel? Let the terrorists withdraw first. They started this battle...
The only reason for withdrawal I could get behind is because Bush wants to have a freer hand on August the 21st.
The US was giving Israel plenty of cover to smash Hezbollah, dealing Iran and Syria a big blow by destroying their proxy force in Lebanon. Iran’s goal to be the dominant Islamic power in the region would’ve been pushed back. Other groups in the region would be less likely to look to Iran as a protector/provider, after seeing Hezbollah destroyed. The US would be in a stronger position in any future nuclear sanctions/discussions/talks with Iran.
Seems like the opposite was accomplished when Israel stopped short and the US supported the ceasefire.
Enjoyed reading the articles. Thanks for posting them.
Bush needed Israel out of whatever happens with Iran o as not to make the issue over Israel.....
sawoody:
Appreciate your feedback.
John
Agreed, although I am not sure this really works, to allow the Hezzies to rush back without finishing the job.
Sept. 1st is obviously too late, August 22nd is the Hitlerian Wack-Job's time-line to create "great joy in the Islamic world" as you alluded to...
What was his actual promise again. I have looked for it and can't find it.
You are a good analyst
"For his part, Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has vowed not to give an inch."
Tell me something I don't know.
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