MSN: Could rising gas prices kill the suburbs?

MSN ^ | August 16, 2006 | Marilyn Lewis

[quesney]

When a high-cost commute reaches the point of no-return, home buyers will start finding houses closer to work. In fact, some already are.

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Rising fuel costs are being blamed for everything from soaring utility costs to lower retail sales and higher airline tickets. And now, experts say high gas prices could reshape U.S. cities.

"Most analysts believe that crude oil prices in the $50s and $60s will be with us for some time," says Stuart Gabriel, director of the Lusk Center, a think tank at the University of Southern California devoted to studying real estate forces and trends. There's even talk of crude hitting $100 per barrel -- or 10 times what it sold for in the summer of 2005.

Once the realization soaks into the American consciousness that high-cost gas is here to stay, Gabriel predicts, those high commute prices will pull more homeowners -- even young families -- to live in central cities and create a push for more public transportation.

Gabriel already sees change in car-centric Los Angeles, where the commuter culture has for years pushed mile upon mile of city sprawl into neighboring towns and farmland. But now Gabriel says KB Home is leading the way to a new type of neighborhood.

Once thought of as a first-home builder, KB in June launched KB Urban to develop high-density, mixed-use projects. The first such project will be a 2-million-square-foot complex of luxury hotels and private residences built in partnership with hotelier Marriott International and sports-and-entertainment company AEG, owner of L.A.'s Staples Center. This kind of development, Gabriel believes, will help make L.A. a denser, European-type central city. It is celebrated in a 2004 film called "The End of Suburbia."

[MinorityRepublican]

Nonsense. I won't be surprised to see an oil glut in 3 to 5 years from now.

[jimtorr]

Sounds like "California Dreamin'" to me.

[mo]

Some people seem pre-occupied with dense cities and public transportation..all the while seemingly NOT to understand that the Megalopolis is an industrial age phenomenon. In the information age, it may well not matter where you live relative to how you earn a living..I suspect in the end they're captivated by the idea of control of others ...

[toddlintown]

Media over-hype. Who needs the cities? We're doing fine out here, thank you.

[Blueflag]

Yep. Work is what you do, not where you are. I haven't worked in an "office" for over 7 years.

High gas prices might actually kill the concept of office towers ... along with a different style of working.

This guy may have it 180 degrees wrong.

At any rate, the use and future of both home "offices" and cities is going to be markedly differrent.

[DustyMoment]

I am so sick of these MSM "The-sky-is-falling" stories. People have been moving back to the inner city for years. People have been moving out of the inner city for years. And, in neither event, were gas prices part of the decision.

[commonguymd]

You see the actual opposite is true. The more expensive the inner cities become, the more likely the "good folk" will return. Once the riff raff gets pushed out, then things will change. It won't be because of gas.

This whole article is nothing but assumptions and hopes based on shaping and molding informal internet poll data to their liking. Was this put together by the DU crowd? Sorry, wishful thinking by liberal dung flingers imo. People want OUT of the rat infested, crime ridden, drug induced cities under the control of liberal do-gooders.

[Sprite518]

This is so stupid.... Why even address it.... Yeah their going to run back to the city where they are overtaxed, and not represented...

[mewzilla]

I have two words: mass transit.

[Wyatt's Torch]

There's even talk of crude hitting $100 per barrel -- or 10 times what it sold for in the summer of 2005.

Huh? Oil was not $10 bbl in 2005. 1998, yes but not 2005. Oh, and they need to ask "why" oil prices are so high. Couldn't have anything to do with the monumental monetary errors alan Greenspan made in the 90's leading to golbal deflation driving down the price of oil to the point where it was cheaper to leave it in the ground and for evil oil companies to not want to invest in refining capacity leading to the refinery capacity shortage we have in todays inflationary cycle as a result of Greenspan taking too long to raise rates now could it? The article is worthless if they can't even get the nature of the problem right...

[GeorgefromGeorgia]

I lived in the Washington, DC area for 13 years, and of course lived in the burbs (N.Va.). If you have children and want them in good schools where they won't be gang banged, you don't live in DC. Commuting was awful. Your life revolved around the daily commute. Even on weekends, traffic on I-95 could gridlock.

The farther from the Pentagon (where we worked) the cheaper the house. We could afford a house 30 miles from the Pentagon (two kids in college). Regardless of what gas prices were, we were going to the burbs. We carpooled, sometimes took rapid transit, and I became a "slug" or daily hitchhiker for a couple of years.

People will buy homes in more concentrated housing, on the condition that the schools are good, crime is not a problem, and either rapid transit or some means of commuting are available. Having a half acre lot is not necessary, but it is nice.

At what point will the price of gas stop people from driving? That depends on income. Frankly, the current run up on prices has added about $600 per year to our budget. This is not a major factor for a family income exceeding 100K.

[Leisler]

Gas Prices vs. Corrupt, union, Democrat, crime, NEA schools, high tax, shakedown cities?

I'll take the price of gas.

[mewzilla]

I'll take the price of gas.

I remember queuing for gas in the 70s. So will I :)

[Gorzaloon]

Thank heavens.

By all means, go back and huddle in the cities from whence you came, leave me alone, and stop driving up my taxes. :-)

[mcg2000]

IF gas prices remained at the $3 p/barrel mark or higher ... AND if more tram or trains lines are built ... then I would agree with the basic premise of the article.

[elli1]

My oldest son just started auto/ diesel school--at the orientation, I asked a question about hybrids...one of the instructors told me that Toyota expects 25% of their market to be in hybrids within the next six years.

[PeteB570]

No.

If gas prices go up just eat out less.

Better for you also.

[Koblenz]

I live in a distant suburb of NYC, Ridgefield, CT. Almost everyone I know works in another suburb. How would moving into the city be an option?

[stuartcr]

People eat-out a lot?