Posted on 08/14/2006 10:51:25 AM PDT by Natty Bumppo@frontier.net
With Johnny Depp buckling his swash again this summer in the Disney franchise Pirates of the Caribbean, many critics yearn for the 2003 Gore Verbinski innovative original. But as new as Depp’s fey pirate portrayal may have been, a significant creation in that film was the concept that bloodthirsty pirates on a rampage could be stopped cold by the mere invocation of the word “Parlay” (from the French, parler, to talk). But, while we may be willing to suspend our disbelief in such an idea for a rousing movie, we should think twice about such devices in the real world.
Condaleeza Rice is on her way to the Middle East to carry a message to some of the many heads of state who may have influence on events. While the rest of the global diplomatic community is braying for parlay, it is hoped that Ms Rice will be delivering something more substantive: a warning.
One does not fix a leaky pipe by talking to it -- one must take up tools and make repairs through the careful application of force and materials. Similarly, it will take the judicious application of force to plug this leak before it becomes a torrent. Nonetheless, as long as we are merely satisfied with patches, we are condemned to repeatedly pick up the tools.
Israel has learned this the hard way. Withdrawing from southern Lebanon and the Gaza Strip did not buy them peace, goodwill, or even respect from their Islamic neighbors, it merely gave their enemies new areas in which to stage more attacks. Once again, they find themselves fighting over patches of ground they once won by force of arms, and must now cleanse once more by force.
But, for as much as Hezbollah and Hamas have sworn to destroy Israel, for as much as these new incursions have only made plain their undying enmity towards Israel, and for as much as the rest of the Middle East is now coming to appreciate the geopolitical liability these groups represent, this is not about Hezbollah or Hamas. It should come as no surprise that land-trades will not purchase peace with these people. It is a predictable outcome, just like the swing of a hammer onto a nail.
The hand swinging the deadly hammer here is Iran, which should also come as no surprise, given that the current Iranian President is an admirer of jihad, a hater of Jews, an ambitious hegemon, and a man convinced that his term in office will be ended by the coming of the Twelfth Imam, the Islamic Apocalypse. Lacking (as yet) the ability to simply turn Israel into a radioactive wasteland, Ahmadinejad is hedging his bet, using proxies to distract the West while continuing to stiff-arm the rest of the world on the subject of his nuclear program.
Facts: (1) Iran sees itself as the rising MidEast hegemon; (2) Iran does not want a democracy next door; (3) Iran’s president believes a cataclysmic confrontation is inevitable; and (4) Iran needs more time.
More facts: (1) The U. S. is currently the go-to superpower; (2) we have committed to planting democracy in the Middle East; (3) we are committed to protecting Israel from annihilation; and (4) we need more time.
Political theorists Strauss and Howe, in their 1997 book The Fourth Turning, predicted that the new millennium would open with an inexorable slide into a global and existential conflict. Iran is certainly bucking for top billing in that event, putting themselves at cross-purposes to almost everything we are attempting to achieve in the Middle East.
Now, some conclusions: (1) There will be a fight, eventually; (2) it will start over one of those fledgling democracies; (3) the real target will be Israel, and it will spread; and (4) we are running out of time.
The West can no longer afford to pay obscene profits on every barrel of oil, only to see that money converted into weapons aimed right back at the West. The United States can no longer afford to pay diplomatic tribute to these new Barbary pirates by respecting the national prerogatives these same nations would deny to their neighbors. Condi Rice may be traveling under a flag of parlay, but she needs to deliver this message: Stop now.
The tools the United States has used in the past have worked: deterrence (as in, “try it and die”) and massive retaliation (as in, “tried it and died”). There is no such thing as proportionality when it is a fight for existence, such as Israel faces. It’s time we told these pirates that we are willing and able to pick up our own tools and go to work.
David J. Aland is a retired Naval Officer with a graduate degree in National Security Affairs from the U. S. Naval War College.
While true enough, I don't recommend holding your breath. The US acquiescence and participation in the 21st Century's Munich is not only shameful, but it is a policy disaster of monumental proportions. The Iranians and Hezzies are screaming "VICTORY!" from the rooftops and they are, for once, correct - they won, and Israel and the West lost. What is particularly stunning is that Israel's moronic government in particular, and the West in general, haven't even begun to understand this. Just as Munich was hailed as a positive breakthrough, so is this abortion of a UN resolution.
I pray that I'm wrong, but I think that Israel and the West are well and truly screwed. We have invited a barbaric enemy armed with modern weapons to attack us (not that they needed an invitation), and they will surely oblige - next time, though, it'll be at a time and place of their choosing.
I used to wonder what it was like to live in the late 1930's, to see the slide into war and not be able to do anything about it...but I no longer wonder about it. Now I worry that we're all about to experience the first half of the 1940's again, this time with nuclear weapons and a far larger percentage of the world's population on the side of naked aggression.
"Well, the Pirate's Code is really more like guidelines....."
dang it you beat me.....
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