Posted on 08/12/2006 6:13:06 PM PDT by La Enchiladita
JERUSALEM -- For Israel, the U.N. cease-fire deal is far from perfect. A U.N. force deploying in south Lebanon as part of the truce will have trouble keeping Hezbollah at bay for long or prevent the Iranian-supplied guerrillas from rearming, critics said, pointing to past failures of international peacekeepers.
The U.N. terms will buy temporary calm, but make the next war between Israel and Tehran's proxy army inevitable, former Israeli Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom and some military analysts warned.
"It begs the question, `What was it all for?'" Shalom said, reflecting a growing chorus of criticism.
Israel had little choice but to go along with the U.S.-backed compromise, after its vaunted army failed to subdue Hezbollah in more than a month of fighting. The guerrillas took heavy blows and suffered scores of casualties, but kept raining rockets on northern Israel throughout the war and clung to positions near Israel's border.
In a race against a looming cease-fire, Israeli troops moved deeper into Lebanon on Saturday to try to capture all territory south of the Litani River, the area that is to be free of Hezbollah. Helicopters ferried hundreds of soldiers into the war zone, in the biggest military airlift in 33 years.
Israeli officials explained that the troops were trying to pave the way for the deployment of 15,000 U.N. peacekeepers and 15,000 Lebanese forces between the border and the Litani. However, some said the last-minute push was of questionable military value and unnecessarily endangered soldiers.
At least seven soldiers were killed Saturday, the first day of the wider ground war, and an Israeli helicopter was shot down.
On paper, a combined force of 30,000 patrolling south Lebanon appeared an impressive achievement for Israel, which has long demanded that the Lebanese government take control of that area.
However, the Lebanese army - composed of up to 50 percent of Shiite Muslims, the same faith as Hezbollah's fighters - will at best have a symbolic role, and at worst be sympathetic to the guerrillas, said Shlomo Brom, a former Israeli military chief of planning.
If challenged by Hezbollah gunmen, the army would likely fold, Brom said. "That's why a multinational force is needed," he said.
However, international observers in the area have proven ineffective in the past. The 2,000 U.N. peacekeepers, known as UNIFIL, who have patrolled south Lebanon since 1978 are no match for Hezbollah, which built its state-within-a-state and acquired sophisticated weapons from Iran without interference.
The new beefed-up U.N. force was given a wider mandate, including permission to use "forceful means" if challenged by the guerrillas.
That wording is still vague, Israeli TV commentator Ehud Yaari said. "When you take into account the past record of UN forces ... it's hard to be hopeful," he said.
Alvaro de Soto, a U.N. special envoy to the Middle East, said much of the criticism of UNIFIL was unfair, since its mandate had been limited. Even so, he said the force repeatedly had defused minor confrontations.
The U.N. resolution's language on a weapons embargo also is problematic, analysts said. The truce deal bars the "sales or supply of arms and related material to Lebanon, except as authorized by its government" - of which Hezbollah is a member. An embargo also would be difficult to enforce on the ground, Yaari said.
Hezbollah leader Sheik Hassan Nasrallah said his guerrillas would abide by the cease-fire once Israeli forces leave, but he expressed reservations about the deal.
The Islamic militant group wants a release of Lebanese prisoners in Israel and a return of Chebaa Farms, a disputed border region held by Israel. If progress is not made on those provisions, the guerrillas may be less willing to cooperate with the forces in the south.
Defense analysts warned more fighting was likely in the future.
Iran can easily reactivate Hezbollah for its own political needs, particularly if it were to be attacked by the West over its nuclear weapons ambitions, Israeli counterterrorism expert Boaz Ganor said.
Shalom, of the right-wing Likud Party, agreed that another war is inevitable. "This was just the preview for the main movie," he said of the conflict that began July 12 when Hezbollah crossed the border and captured two Israeli soldiers.
"They (Hezbollah) will now rebuild themselves. We could then see long-range missiles, perhaps with non-conventional warheads," warned Shalom.
Israeli leaders defended the deal against growing skepticism - and got a little help from U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. The deal, she told Israel TV in a telephone interview, "really does enhance Israel's security."
Defense Minister Amir Peretz acknowledged that Israel would have preferred a NATO-led force, rather than U.N. troops, but emphasized the expanded size and mandate of the peacekeepers.
Vice Premier Shimon Peres said Israel couldn't expect to get everything it wanted. "If we opposed the U.N. resolution, the world would have turned against us," he cautioned.
With the destruction of the state of Israel and then the west or the destruction of Islamofascism. Unfortunately, our enemies will use this time to strengthen themselves against Israel while Iran obtains it's nuclear missile technology. All this "peace" accomplishes is an escalation in the severity of the next conflict. We failed, because Israel's politicians flinched and now we both will pay the price. Goodbye 2006, hello 1300. We're letting them drag us back into the stoneage.
So this is how you fight for your life. Worrying about what the neighbors think. - tom
(Go Israel, Go! Slap 'Em Down Hezbullies.)
(Go Israel, Go! Slap 'Em Down Hezbullies.)
This ceasefire is a bad deal for Israel.
Well, at least the Israelis got quite a file on "lessons learned". Given the quality of their staff people, one would expect that these will be analyzed and the solutions found and implemented.
This is just a stage, in which Lebanon is being maneuvered into assuming responsibility for its border, even if it is only on paper. Now, when hostilities break out, Israel can declare war directly on Lebanon and finish the job.
Israel might have to replace some of their military commanders.I don't think that the commanders prepared for this war properly.They shouldn't have had to order advanced rockets from America when the war was already three weeks old.
They need something to shoot down rockets and mortar shells. That sort of thing does exist in at least two forms.
I agree that Olmert's leftist waffling was a problem. When you talk about Israelis being pressured by U.S., I'm not sure if you're responding to the article or ...?
A headline in FOX news today said U.S. is pressuring for Israel to surrender Shabaa Farms. However, Olmert has already stated he is for that.
Thank you for remembering the captured soldiers. It haunts me that they are still missing and, at one time, Israel said their return was the most stringent condition for a cease fire. As of yesterday, they were an afterthought.
Truly, I would have said, "You give them back to us alive and well, we stop firing. We find out they are dead, were tortured, mutilated ... we bomb you out of existence."
I hope that the Kadima will be "analyzed" out of power and the Likud reinstated.
Shalom, of the right-wing Likud Party, agreed that another war is inevitable. "This was just the preview for the main movie," he said of the conflict that began July 12 when Hezbollah crossed the border and captured two Israeli soldiers.
"They (Hezbollah) will now rebuild themselves. We could then see long-range missiles, perhaps with non-conventional warheads," warned Shalom.
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The UN shoots and scores... again.
Israel should have asked for the head of Nazzralla for this deal to be accepted.....
Personally, one of my biggest disappointments is that they did not get Nostrizilla. As in kaBOOM.
No, UN Resolution 1701 does not call for the return of the two Israeli soldiers.
I don't understand all of the criticism of Israel on this thread.
Sure, we'd all like to see Israel finish Hezbullah once and for all. But the truth is, that unless you wipe out their sponsors, Syria and Iran, Israel could kill every Hezi right up to the Syrian border and they would still come back.
Israel has taught Hezi a lesson that even a simple kidnapping will bear a high price. Israel has also taught Lebanon, that they must take responsibility for what happens from within their borders. And they taught Gaza this as well. And this did successfully split the Muslims in a dispute with Israel for the first time that I remember, possible ever.
I think Israel has won all they can reasonably hope to without taking on Syria and Iran. This seems a reasonable exit point.
I think the fact that the U.N. became involved with a resolution, combined with the seeming IRresolution of the Olmert administration and now the bickering within Israel has distracted us from the very real victories and progress of the IDF/IAF.
Now, though, there is the very real possibility that Hizb'allah will take over even more of the Lebanon government.
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