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Dell reflects on 25 years of PCs ~ PC arrived in 1981
CNET ^ | August 7, 2006 4:00 AM PT | By Tom Krazit Staff Writer, CNET News.com

Posted on 08/12/2006 10:06:07 AM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach

The man who founded the world's largest PC company thinks the best is still to come after a quarter-century of the IBM PC.

Twenty-five years have passed since IBM launched its version of the personal computer. Apple Computer may have captured the attention of early computer hobbyists with its first products, but IBM's PC made the business world sit up and realize that personal computers could be much more than toys.

Michael Dell started off using PCs to create homework shortcuts, the way many young people at the time discovered the new devices. Few people, including Dell's parents, realized exactly how large the potential was for the personal computer. More than 20 years after he founded PC's Limited, he admits his parents never quite embraced his decision to leave the University of Texas at Austin to start the company that would eventually bear his name and record $56 billion in revenue during its last fiscal year.

Michael Dell
Michael Dell

As the PC industry looks back on 25 years of growth and success, CNET News.com spoke to Dell about his early experiences with the PC, the factors that led to its rapid acceptance among home and business users, and the future of the device. Here are excerpts from that conversation, and videos can be found on the right side of the page.

Can you start off by telling me a little bit about what your first-ever PC was?

When I was in junior high school, I started playing around with--at the time they were RadioShack PCs--so they were the first PCs that I was able to play around with.

Do you remember how much that cost or what the specifications were?

They were probably $800 or something like that, not super expensive and not very powerful either. They had cassette drives instead of hard-disk drives. It was even before the floppy disks. (I'd) largely do programming with Basic. I was kind of fascinated with the computing power and what that could do and what that would mean. It was just an enchanting device for me.

What were you doing with it? Were you playing simple games or...?

Just my math homework, playing around writing programs. (I was) just fascinated with the machine that could do so many computations so quickly. At the beginning of the genesis of the PC industry, it seemed like there was going to be a lot of excitement with the device like this, as it went into medicine and business and education and entertainment. Of course, nobody knew exactly what would happen, but it was a very exciting time.

When do you think you realized that this device was going to go from more of a niche device to something that almost everyone would have at some point?

"That original PC in 1981 was certainly a pivotal moment because it caused this ecosystem to start to flourish and allowed all sorts of companies to participate..."
--Michael Dell
I dropped out of college because that's what I thought would happen. So, that for me was in 1984 and I started a company around that idea, believing that more and more people would know how to use PCs, that they would become easier to use, that even people could buy them without going to a store. We had a sense for it in the early '80s but certainly couldn't say we imagined it. It is just the way it happened.

Do you recall any specific event or anything that dawned on you in back around that time? I mean, you must have had to sell the idea of dropping out of college to your parents.

I didn't really sell them on it. They weren't really in favor of it. So I was, you know, rebellious--an 18, 19-year-old and just did what I wanted to do and all worked out OK.

It seems to have. So to ask you to speculate a little bit, one of the things that helped the rise of the PC 25 years ago was the way that IBM gave up control over certain parts of the PC to other companies, allowing Microsoft to license the operating system. Can you sense what the world might be like if that hadn't happened, if IBM had maintained very tight control of that device?

Yeah, it's kind of interesting. I mean, that was clearly a big factor because what it developed was an ecosystem which became and is still today incredibly important in the evolution of computing, not only in the personal computer sense, but even in the enterprise. Before that time you actually had all sorts of proprietary or semi-proprietary PCs, and the cry out from the community of users was, "Hey, how do we get a standard so that we can develop applications one time and they work on any kind of device?"

I think you could argue that the market would have been much smaller, would have developed much more slowly. Parts would have been much more expensive and computing would have never had the impact that it's had now. You could also say that if IBM and Microsoft hadn't done that, somebody else would have come along and did it, so I would believe that as well.

That original PC in 1981 was certainly a pivotal moment because it caused this ecosystem to start to flourish and allowed all sorts of companies to participate, whether they were developing add-in cards or software applications or chipsets or extending the architecture in new ways and bringing products to market that provided value, provided an alternative.

What kind of changes do you see in store for the PC over the next 20 to 25 years? Are we going to see something radically different or an evolution of the thing that we now know?

I remember about 10 years ago somebody said we were in a post-PC era. I said, "That's kind of interesting. Well, tell me about the post-PC era--what does that all mean?"

We made the whole supply chain in the industry much more efficient; that drives efficiency, drives costs down and certainly that makes the market much larger.
--Michael Dell

It turns out, the unit volumes for PCs have continued to grow, so now this year roughly 240 million PCs are sold all over the world. What you are going to see is that there are all sorts of new devices, but the PC has had an amazing ability to adapt and evolve and it's not really just one PC. You have all these different shapes and forms and sizes and workstations and portables, big ones and small ones and multiple processors and single processors and handheld machines and all sorts of varieties.

The physics that underlie the hardware are not slowing down at all, so the rate of improvement there is tremendous. I think there are still enormous opportunities in the user interface to make it an easier or simpler device.

I still believe the industry is in its early innings in terms of its development and (rate of) change, and certainly the pervasiveness of very high-speed broadband connections, fiber, very high-speed wireless, which will change where and how computing occurs around the world. But the PC is an indispensable part of how productivity and entertainment, education, medicine works today in society.

When you look back now and you see how far the PC has come, can you pick a couple of things that you think were instrumental in getting that device to where it is today?

I think you have a foundational element, which is the semiconductor revolution, which provided enormous improvements in power and integration and scale in being able to combine large numbers of transistors together into increasingly smaller and less-expensive packages, so that the functionality was improving at a very, very rapid rate, across all aspects of the system, whether it was processor performance or graphics performance or IO performance, network, bandwidth, all those things. That's the foundational element that's been absolutely critical.

Then, you have this ecosystem effect, which was kicked off by the famous IBM decision with Intel and Microsoft. So you have this ecosystem of literally tens of thousands of companies that are participating and billions of users. Dell has sold over 200 million PCs worldwide and this year over 40 million of them, so that ecosystem of users and companies contributing makes it much more powerful than what any single company could do themselves.

We certainly, I think, helped make PCs more affordable, (have) driven the technology transitions and reduced the time period from when technology was introduced to when it's actually available. We made the whole supply chain in the industry much more efficient; that drives efficiency, drives costs down and certainly that makes the market much larger.

The one other thing I want to ask you is what you currently use, right now at home, as your home PC.

I am using a Dell Precision 690, which is our high-end workstation. It's a two-socket system and it's got two dual-core Woodcrest (Xeon 5100 processors) in there. It's got a port with 64 (gigabytes) of memory, but I have only got 32 (gigabytes) in there.

Come on.

And I have got two of our 30-inch monitors, so it's 8.2 million pixels of resolution, which is kind of nice. And I have managed to get a fiber connection to my house, so I kind of dig into that speed on the Internet.  


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Culture/Society; Extended News; News/Current Events; Technical
KEYWORDS: 994a; anniversary; dell; ibmpc; ti
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81 posted on 08/12/2006 2:11:51 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach (History is soon Forgotten,)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

I reminisce to my old Burroughs 2500/3500 days...

http://archive.computerhistory.org/resources/text/Burroughs/Burroughs.B2500B3500.1966.102646229.pdf


82 posted on 08/12/2006 2:18:08 PM PDT by dakine
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To: dakine
I was in on the very early days of the IBM/360....now that really dates me....

*******************************

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http://ed-thelen.org/comp-hist/vs-ibm-360-91.html   http://www-db.stanford.edu/pub/voy/museum/pictures/display/3-1.htmBU   http://www.cray-cyber.org/pictures/comprooms.php   

83 posted on 08/12/2006 2:42:10 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach (History is soon Forgotten,)
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To: GoldCountryRedneck
Hmmmm...lookin' at my Fry's Electronics invoice of 11/82, my IBM 8088 with two floppy drives, 128K memory, and a COLOR monitor was $2540.

Guess I misremembered. Eight thousand sticks in my mind, though... maybe the price of the first ATs?

84 posted on 08/12/2006 3:54:52 PM PDT by Grut
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To: LiberationIT

I agree. Dell is getting downhill. The first computer that I really used extensively was a Dell Optiplex made in 1996. Pretty decent machine at the time but not for home users, the hardware components used were already not top quality back then, and the device drivers were a nightmare to work with. But when I bought the second computer I did not hesitate to go for a Compaq Presario and on average it has less software config problems (which had nothing to do with the OS, but rather, drivers, BIOS, etc) than my older Dell.


85 posted on 08/12/2006 6:04:07 PM PDT by NZerFromHK (The languages may be dialects, but America is different from the Anglo world due to US Founding.)
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To: Gabz
"You may be right, I think they now do more with laptops than PCs."

No offense, but you need to talk to your husband about current events in IBM. They sold off the entire PC division a while back to Lenovo. There ARE no IBM PC's any more (or laptops, for that matter).

86 posted on 08/12/2006 7:57:11 PM PDT by RightOnline
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

Bought my first PC in 1984. We were pioneers for sure.


87 posted on 08/12/2006 7:59:09 PM PDT by InterceptPoint (<b>)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

Just passing through tonight. But thanks for the ping. Have a great upcoming day.


88 posted on 08/12/2006 8:00:04 PM PDT by Marine_Uncle (Honor must be earned)
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To: RightOnline

He's not on that end........he just fixes the things or rebuilds them.......and rarely does he even get a call for a laptop, let alone a PC.


89 posted on 08/12/2006 8:54:26 PM PDT by Gabz (Taxaholism, the disease you elect to have (TY xcamel))
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To: Larry Lucido

Yep :)


90 posted on 08/12/2006 9:19:33 PM PDT by Hazcat
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To: Fatuncle
would not bother with tech support, I'd send yours back and tell them there is something seriously wrong with it, and they could refund or replace.

Wonderful idea but I have already tried that. I have afriend that has an update from XP home to XP Pro that is my next try. I HATE XP!! "Turn Off" ?? What is that BS?

91 posted on 08/12/2006 9:23:02 PM PDT by Hazcat
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To: Hazcat
I still run '98. I hate XP with passion. I am thinking seriously (if I can get one that will run programs I need for the business) of going to Linux, or buying a Mac for my next.
92 posted on 08/13/2006 3:20:29 PM PDT by Fatuncle (Of course I'm ignorant. I'm here to learn.)
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