Posted on 08/09/2006 12:42:21 PM PDT by NormsRevenge
Republican Senator Lincoln Chafee, marginally leading his Democratic opponent in previous surveys, is trailing for the second Rasmussen Reports election poll in a row. Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse now leads 44% to 38%. A month ago, Whitehouse was ahead 46% to 41%.
Chafee faces a primary battle with Cranston Mayor Steve Laffey, not the GOP's best hope here. In a match-up with Laffey, Whitehouse leads 55% to 31%.
Chaffee's tribulations are not unique. Our recent polling shows that Democrats are holding their own in Senate contests, including in states where it was thought the GOP had a decent chance to pick up a seat (see commentary on trends). Meanwhile, five incumbent Republican senators, including Chafee, now trail Democrat challengers (that list also includes Senators Santorum, Burns, DeWine, and Talent).
The uncertain fate of Senator Joseph Lieberman, though a Democrat, may be added to the list given how he's been targeted as too simpatico with President Bush by fellow Democrats angry over his support of the war in Iraq.
To succeed in a Democrat-leaning state like Rhode Island, Republicans like Chaffee must hope to lure Democrats as well as unaffiliated voters.
But if the unpopularity of President Bush is weighing down Republicans, this is one state where we'd expect to see the anti-Bush factor play out. Seventy-four percent (74%) of the state's few Republicans approve of the job Bush is doing, but the President's approval rating is low generally. And only 12% of Democrats approve; 88% disapprove, 72% "strongly."
And Chafee's support from Democrats has dropped by half. He now attracts 19% of Democrats, 59% of Republicans, 43% of unaffiliated voters. In late April, when he was leading Whitehouse by a few points, Chafee's appeal to Republicans and unaffiliated voters was about the same. But he then attracted 38% of Democrats.
Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.
This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports August 3, 2006. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
44% of Rhode Island voters support the Whitehouse! A vindication for Bush policies!!
I'm pullin' f'r Chafee! C'm on Chafee!
He he loses, it's no great loss.
No loss. When Linc votes 100% of the time with the Dems we have lost nothing if he gets booted.
ha - you beat me to it.
Any poll taken in August (vacation time for a large part of the country) is mostly BS.
In other words, Chaffee is in a dead heat within the margin of error but more likely to be behind than ahead.
chaffee losing is on step closer for the dems to pick up the 6 seats they need to control the senate and to pick up 100's of millions in campaign contributions/bribes that go to the party in power.
It is also one step closer to having the next scotus nominee, needing approval of the democrats.
If that is what you want, you need to change your name from brilliant to "one dim bulb"
Chaffee's a RINO. Might as well be a demoncracy.
Sorry. That's "democrazy."
"No loss. When Linc votes 100% of the time with the Dems we have lost nothing if he gets booted."
except that he Does caucus with REpublicans meaning his seat would still nominally be Republican
That being said i would shed no tear if this putz goes down
Chafee seems to vote against much of the way I would vote. Check out his ACU rating: 37.
100 is a perfect rating. Jim DeMint of SC has a lifetime rating of 98. Tom Delay 95. Ted Stevens 64, Bill Nelson (FLA) 41, Snowe 50, Collins 55.
Chafee's rating is slightly to the left of Bill Nelson and to the right of Ted Kennedy 3, and John Kerry 5.
That is historical and statistical fact. Also, many people who vote Republican are the ones usually on vacation.
Actually, Bill Nelson has an 18 lifetime rating. Ben Nelson, of Nebraksa, has a 53. However, a more useful comparison would be Jack Reed (D-RI): 7. That's what we'll get with a Dem in Chafee's place. I'll take the extra 30.
Another factor to consider - ACU ratings are not necessarily the best indicators of how conservative a legislator is. You're better of picking the votes that are most important to YOU and seeing how your Senators and Representative vote. I also think that they're sometimes just wrong. Look, for example, at Ken Salazar (D-CO). He has a 2005 rating of 32, and a lifetime rating of 28...except he's only served for one year, so his lifetime rating should be 32. I've found other mistakes like that, or votes that were just recorded wrong. I wouldn't put too much stock into ACU ratings.
It's surprising to me that Snowe and Collins are 50 and 55 - I'd have thought lower.
the writer is oblivious to the disconent in the ranks about Chafee!
Ohio, Montana, Rhode Island, Pennsy, and at least two more states are shaping up to be Republican losses. Goodbye Senate.
Meanwhile, on the house side, the dems already have picked up DeLay's seat by default.
Quote: "That is historical and statistical fact. Also, many people who vote Republican are the ones usually on vacation."
I sincerely hope you are correct. Rasmussen does not appear to be sanguine on the Republicans chances. This poll is usually reliable. The President is going to have to do something drastic in Iraq and to bring down gas prices or I think its curtains.
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