How about this scenario:
Lieberman runs as independent, and splits the dems so that the Repub candidate wins, gaining that seat?
We have a very weak GOP candidate with all sorts of "baggage". I'm worried the CT Republicans and Independents (the majority in CT) will split over Schlesinger (GOP candidate) and Joe Lieberman, and we end up with 'RAT-endorsed Senator Moonbat Lamont...
I like Uncledave's scenario in #2.