Posted on 08/08/2006 11:23:13 AM PDT by 1Old Pro
Here's the referenced House race report: http://www.cookpolitical.com/races/report_pdfs/2006_house_comp_jul19.pdf
We keep hearing that the House is up for grabs and polls show republicasn in trouble.
We hear this from so-called experts like Charles Cooke.
I looked at the Congressional race in the 20th District of New York and I can tell you that Cooke os TOTALLY WRONG AND UNIFORMED.
And, if he is as uniformed about other races he's putting in the toss-up or "lean" column no wonder people are believing his nonsense.
CASE IN POINT: He has my Congressman John Sweeney in the "lean" column. I can tell you multiple polls in the last months show the incumbent republican winning 2-1. AND, that was before his opponent was kicked off the "Independence Party" line in the past few days. That line for people who are unfamiliar is line C and the Congressman also has line A (GOP) and line D (conservative). Historically this gives the lineholder 14% MORE.
Bottom line, If the Cook is being used to as evidenmce of GOP problems I cannot believe it based on a race I am VERY familiar with and suspect Cook knows only what his interns tell him about it.
Other evidence that will make this a "likely" win is that the DCCC has abandoned the Democrat candidate and withdrawn ALL financial support so things will only look better and better for the incumbent.
ahould have used spellcheck, one of many errors uniformed should be UNINFORMED.
I was going to ask what kind of uniform he was wearing. LOL! The content was good though...thanks for the post.
Interesting. Thanks for that information. I do think a lot of this political prognosticating is wishful thinking. I think the GOP will lose a few seats, but retain control. California CD-50 and Ohio CD-02's special congressional elections that were suppose to be real Democratic pick up opportunities remained GOP. That to me indicates mostly a status quo election. The 1994 GOP win was preceded by two GOP pick ups of Dem. House seats in special elections before hand. Nothing like that this time.
Add this to my comments this morning.
Forget about Charlie Cook. His predictions are useless. He is a Democrat butt kisser through and through. He would not know the truth if it looked him straight in the eye.
These "experts" never actually get around to actually, kind of you know,well, naming names :-)so I will:
Bean Ill, Marshall Ga. Barrow Ga. Mollohan WV. Edwards TX. trouble. Brad Miller NC possible the empty Boswell seat maybe. Hey these are all rats! Why who woulda thunk that?
Actually I think we pick up either 2, 3 or 4 seats, net.
As we get closer to E day we will hear more about the real stories on the ground. Remember when someone is talking generic polls, saying Florida is a swing state or only talking about possible GOP loses,you've got either an ash hole or a lying POS on your hands.
Dang it, now that Andrew Wilkow is gone, I'm out of the loop on local NY politics. What did Gillibrand (sp?) do to get in so much trouble with the dems?
You are right. That's why the generic ballot question is such bunk. People might say "Throw the bums out" but then be personally satisfied with their own bum. That's why I pay zero attention to these "Who will you vote for in this year's congressional election, a Republican or Democrat?" questions.
Additionally, I see no evidence there's a representative sampling of congressional districts across the nation with such questions such that you'd get an accurate rea. A disproportionate number of those polled may be in strongly Democratic districts that already have a Democratic congressperson such as in large cities like L.A., Chicago and New York.
She is polling horribly, has an amateur cmpaign staff making rookie mistakes ( even with Howard Wolfson advising) and her platform was written by Nancy Pelosi which doesn't sell at all in the "RED" Congressional district.
I can tell you that cook is 180 degres wrong on this race so for me it makes me wonder about all his other races.
Well, that's good news. She's a disgusting stooge for the 'working families party'. At least some things up here still make sense.
This is a crock. He doesn't have Murtha on even the likely Democrat section of the 'competitive seats'. In other words, he thinks Murtha's reelection is in the bag. I do not agree.
I tend to agree, although the Ney seat now is looking like trouble---I had that one as a hold, but his recent departure from the race might make this one tough to hold.
thanks for the heads-up on the numbers in NY-20.... very helpful. there are environmental factors to be considered, for sure, but things should be better than cook wants us to believe.
What is revealing here is that these national pundits aren't digging into these races. The fact that he is so wrong on this race reveals a problem in his "system" and calls into quetion ALL of his conclusions.
With the current gerrymandered districts, the House is very unlikely to go dem. The dems will pick up seats, but too many districts will require a 20 - 30 point swing to change parties.
Primary elections are today's battleground.
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