Lopez Obrador is Moving Leftist Protestors to HQ of Mexico's Electoral Tribunal (Translation)

eluniversal.com.mx ^ | August 6, 2006 | eluniversal.com.mx ( translated by self )

[StJacques]

AMLO is moving informative assembly¹ to the TEPJF

The candidate of the For the Good of All coalition² called on his sympathizers to come together tomorrow at 7:00 p.m. at the offices of the Electoral Tribunal to carry out an assembly.

The candidate of the For the Good of All coalition, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, announced that tomorrow at 7:00 p.m. the coalition will carry out an informative assembly in front of the Electoral Tribunal of the Judicial Power of the Federation.

During his fourth informative assembly in the Zocalo capital plaza, Lopez Obrador insisted on the necessity of recounting all the votes of the presidential election of July 2.

The coalition's candidate also told his sympathizers that next Sunday they will reunite for another time in the Zocalo capital plaza to continue with their informative assemblies.

Yesterday the magistrates of the Electoral Tribunal determined to reject the total recount of votes and only to proceed to do so in 11,839 precincts of 149 electoral districts in 26 states.³

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Translator's Notes:

¹Lopez Obrador has consistently given his protest gatherings in Mexico City following the July 2 election the name of "informative assemblies."

²The "For the Good of All" coalition refers to the union of Lopez Obrador's PRD (Party of the Democratic Revolution) Party, the Labor Party, and the Convergence for Democracy Party behind his presidential campaign.

³See yesterday's thread for an article with the details of the decision. Briefly; there will be hand recounts of individual ballots in 11,839 out of a total of 130,437 precincts in Mexico, or about 9.07% of all precincts. These precincts are located in states in the south central area of Mexico which were carried by PAN candidate and virtual winner of the election Felipe Calderon. Lopez Obrador is charging that Calderon's numbers were inflated in these states and that his own were deflated. There are a total of 300 electoral districts in Mexico.

[Shuttle Shucker]

Photos of human chains, as opposed to massive crowds? I'm liking the sound of this :-) When you've got a diminishing crowd, you can try to hide that fact by asking folks to form a human chain that goes as far as the eye can see. It seems desperately silly.

[StJacques]

I remember how important the Paseo de la Reforma is to the downtown Mexico City business district. Practically everything of importance is accessed either directly from the Paseo or by crossing it. Once I saw that the PRD decided to blockade that all-important avenue I knew that either everyone would rally to their side immediately to get it over with or there would be a steady stream of defections from disaffected and disenchanted former supporters. And I have seen clear evidence over the past few days that disaffection and disenchantment with the PRD are the more prevalent opinions.

sinkspur, in light of your earlier question about numbers, pay attention to what rovenstinez has been posting about what is going on in Mexico City above. He's there now.

[StJacques]

If any of you want to see the web video, 3 minutes, 4 seconds long, of the Electoral Tribunal's summary decision (in Spanish of course) it is at (pop-up link):

http://www.youtube.com/v/BRc03_1D0dU

[rovenstinez]

http://www.reforma.com/ This link, a major Mexican Newspaper has 2 pictures showing the human chain. As you can see numbers are dwindling.

[SAJ]

Wheat differs not one whit (couldn't resist) from Pesos. The futures on the Board are identical in structure to those on the Merc, although obviously they differ in products and contract values.

You bid for or offer Pesos exactly as you would wheat or beans, bid for X contracts at price Y (or MKT, if you must). You short Pesos exactly as you would short wheat; same thing, offer X contracts at price Y.

BTW, the standard unit of trading for grains on the Board is 5,000 bushels. The 1,000 bushel contracts are e-minis, only traded electronically, and their volume is uaually pretty spotty.

Your comment about 'the "contract" or "contracts" you are purchasing was/were already negotiated with one or more farmer(s) somewhere, as they raised funds for themselves earlier in the year as a hedge' is, I'm sorry to say, pure nonsense. Presumably, some considerable number of farmers have hedged their wheat using the sale of futures; however, your counterparty in a wheat trade is every bit as likely to be a fund, another spec, a local, or a commercial.

Nor is it the case that 'someone will actually get the wheat' necessarily. Less than 2% of all futures contracts are settled by delivery; so -- no offense -- 98+% are settled by offsetting purchases or sales, and thus 98+% of the time, your statement is unfortunately inaccurate.

Any time you place any order in any futures mkt (other than a 'market order, MKT, which demands an immediate fill at the notionally best price available), you will wait to see if the mktplace has a participant who will take the other side of your trade at the price (and/or under the conditions, as for instance in the case of a stop-limit order) you named. Sometimes the wait is a few seconds, sometimes its hours or days. Sometimes, your price is never hit.

Now, I have a Q for you -- and I really need to find this out. Regarding Web pages, if one has prepared a page using PNG graphics (JPG and GIF are, sadly, NOT available, just take my word for this), how does one embed links into the graphical page? I'm going crazy (well, no more than usual...g!) trying to find out how to do this. It ought to be simple as h*ll, but I'm hanged if I can find out how to get this done so far.

[Shuttle Shucker]

Here's the MexElex chart (so this thread won't lack it) :-)

[SAJ]

Yep, Shucker, both Peso and tradesports are dead in the water so far tonight.

The only inference that can be drawn from this is that neither market thinks Obragore's BS is going to go anywhere...at least so far.

As a certain fictional lady named O'Hara once noted, though, ''Tomorrow is another day.''

;^)

[Shuttle Shucker]

I couldn't tell from Reforma's numerous photos that the numbers are dwindling. The distance between the Zocalo and that other place (Torre PeMex maybe) is substantial, isn't it? Maybe the use of a human chain wasn't necessarily to hide numbers. I guess the human chain has symbolic usefulness in that it shows how many roadways can be blocked with this enduring culture of impunity. And it's a fresh new approach to AMLO's frustrations.

[StJacques]

Okay, before we get to the PNG thing, one comment about futures trading. I'm certain I don't know as much about it as you do, but the investment counselor who hired me discussed what he described as the two types of futures contracts, those that could be settled with financial instruments, such as other futures contracts, and those that could only be settled with the delivery of the commodity. It was the latter he was monitoring, primarily soybean futures to be honest, because he did a lot of work with local soybean farmers, and especially co-ops who contracted to deliver soybeans at such-and-such a date, usually September and November if I remember correctly -- but don't quote me on that. I have little doubt that you are correct that the overwhelming majority of those contracts are settled with financial instruments because you obviously know what you are doing.

Now on to the PNG issue; you wrote:

"Regarding Web pages, if one has prepared a page using PNG graphics (JPG and GIF are, sadly, NOT available, just take my word for this), how does one embed links into the graphical page? I'm going crazy (well, no more than usual...g!) trying to find out how to do this."

If I understand you correctly are you asking me how to use a PNG graphic image as an embedded object within a link? By which I mean, do you want to put a PNG object on a web page and have someone click on it as a link?

If that's what you want, then I just uploaded to a web server a demo page I prepared a while back on drawing VML renderings of .png graphics in Internet Explorer. Here is the link to it:

http://207.36.82.245/hidden/HLPNGraphA.htm

If you move your mouse over the .png graphic on the right you will see you can click on it as a link. Just open "View -> Source" and go to the last line of code before the /BODY tag. I placed the hyperlink with a span element, you don't need to do that, just look at the anchor tag, that is the "a" element we all know is a hyperlink and pay attention to the fact that the .png img element has a border attribute set to "0".

And if this was not what you wanted to do, then let me know in more detail.

[SAJ]

Worldwide, there is only one type of futures contract, speaking broadly. There are, however, three types of settlement for futures contracts.

The first is by delivery of the goods, of whatever type, from seller to buyer on or after the first allowable date for delivery (in the US, this date is called 'first notice day'). The seller of the contract, the short, decides whether or not to make delivery in order to settle the contract.

The second, and far and away the most common, type of settlement is by offset. If one is short (i.e 'has previously sold') 5 Dec Wheat, one buys later on 5 Dec Wheat, scores up the profit or loss, and is flat (i.e. out of) the mkt.

The third is cash settlement, as for instance in the CME Lean Hogs contract. Nobody delivers anything to anyone, ever. All contracts that have not been offset on the contract's expiration date are settled ''for cash''. The exchange fixes a final settlement price for the contract in question, and both the owners and shorts of the remaining open contracts calc their profits or losses and either pony up or collect, in a manner defined by the exchange and governed/enforced by the exchange member brokerages.

There are certainly any number of other contracts-in-future when dealing in physical or financial goods. These include spot, forwards, swaps, and switches among other things. None of these are futures contracts. These have different terms and different methods of settlement, although, to be completely fair, there are now a number of futures mkts in various swaps. Still, a swap and a swap future are two different critters.

Different topic ----

I'm not asking how to embed PNG graphics in anything. I have a page, generated by PHP and that blasted 'header' structure, that uses PNG graphics to display the information I want displayed (just an ordinary daily bar chart for ...surprise!... futures prices). This works very well and produces a nice graphical image. No change required here.

What I need to do is to insert **INTO** that page assorted clickable links to other web pages. Ideally, in the best possible case, I'd like these links to be able to use Javascript in order to accomplish one or another 'special' effects. No Java required or desired, and I'll have nothing to do with Active X controls or anything similar.

And that, to quote the odious Walter Cronkite, is the way it is. Grateful for any/all practical advice.

Many thanks again for your patience with my, evidently, poor explanation!

[StJacques]

Well if it's PHP I would be recommending Java components in some form or another here, but if you don't want to go that way, ok, I understand.

But let me ask you two questions.

1. Are you using a .php development tool to create your page code, like PHPTriad or something, which has its own IDE (Integrated Development Environment -- a visual programming interface like Eclipse)?

2. Do you know beforehand what the links are you wish to create (in other words can they be "hard coded" up front) or are the links considered "dynamic content" in that possibly their number, placement on the page, href attributes, appearance, event handlers, etc. are not known until the rest of the content is determined? Note: if the latter is true, i.e. that they are "dynamic content," then you are almost certainly going to need to create at least one "class" to handle this chore and that means either a .php class or possibly a Java class depending upon whether you have an IDE that permits you to do so.

Sorry if I'm burying you in tech-speak but the essential issues are simply two -- development tools and links as "independent" or "dependent" content.

Get past this and I'll see where we are then.

[Shuttle Shucker]

Remember how Dan Rather's and Whoopi Goldberg's unethical misconduct were dealt with most effectively by our contacting their sponsors? Well should the Miami Herald keep letting this kind of pro-ObraGore ideology get published in its name down in Mexico City each day?

http://www2.eluniversal.com.mx/pls/impreso/noticia.html?id_nota=33647&tabla=articulos

I doubt the Miami Herald notices that much because they haven't been asked to. The Herald is our only gringo newspaper in Mexico City (and basically Mexico in general given how small the circulation is for stuff in Lake Chapala and other retirement communities) and it's not doing us justice to portray us as being in favor of the guy most Mexicans voted against.

[Shuttle Shucker]

According to the (Leftist) Houston Chronicle, owned by the San Francisco Chronicle, ObraGore had about TWENTY THOUSAND supporters show up at the Zocalo Sunday: http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/front/4098227.html Were those the ones who went on to form the human chain or did others do that? Either way, it would seem that support is dying down...

[StJacques]

From the linked article:

"There is no democratic argument against a recount."

My rejoinder to this statement:

"There is no democratic argument that the laws governing the electoral process in Mexico should be shelved in favor of the political demands of one party."

That article just enraged me. Here we see an American liberal line of thought imposed on Mexico -- Lopez Obrador represents the poor and disenfranchised in Mexico and he is struggling to make an "unfair" process work. That's pure BS. Lopez Obrador is struggling to circumvent the law governing recounts in Mexico to either have the election he lost annulled or so that he can make Calderon's presidency appear illegitimate. There is nothing "fair" about AMLO's strategy and tactics. And even though the author of that article stated that AMLO "has a strong case," he never related any information about the counting of votes that suggested there was substance to AMLO's arguments. What he related was what took place during the campaign, not what occurred on election day nor anything in the preliminary and official counts the IFE conducted. And he noticeably left out the black marks on AMLO's own campaign; the expulsion of Cuban, Venezuelan, and Bolivian agents working in his campaign contrary to Mexican law, the receipt of outside funding from elsewhere in Latin America -- again, contrary to Mexican law, the use of the Federal District offices as campaign centers during and including election day, the pressure put on Federal District employees to support AMLO's political rallies, once again, contrary to Mexican electoral law.

The left knows how to lie better than anyone and that guy's article is a perfect example.

rovenstinez put up a link to that BBC article (see above somewhere) that was much more balanced. It pointed out that EU and UN observers both monitored the Mexican electoral process and said it was fair. It presented evidence of AMLO's intent to avoid the strictures of Mexican law. And it also pointed out that the PRD was using its control over the Federal District government to AMLO's advantage.

I hate the left. I really hate them. They will never engage in honest argument or permit a full hearing on the evidence. Never!

And oh, by the way, there is a recount underway. It has been determined by the evidence presented that the standards of the handling of the vote in some precincts may have been less than what Mexican law requires, not by some larger sense of the "unfairness" of the campaign. The law in Mexico is working. And the left cannot stand that the "law" is the means for settling differences.

[Shuttle Shucker]

Insightful observations, Saint. A major problem I have with the Left is how they shamelessly infiltrate media outlets to skew their contents while claiming to be fair & balanced. Such skewing has happened with The Herald in Mexico City (which seems far more Left than co-parent El Universal). I wonder if the Miami Herald warrants Freeping so it will wake up to what's going on with its trademark down South.

[StJacques]

Just an update for you all here, nothing major has happened yet today, but we may be heading for a showdown that could come within the next 48 hours if AMLO and his followers decide to disrupt the Electoral Tribunal's work, which they are on the verge of threatening right now.

First; the decision to move the center of the protest to the offices of the Electoral Tribunal has put Alejandro Encinas, the Head of Government in the Federal District, back into the spotlight. A lot of Mexicans, spurred on by the press, are coming to see Encinas as complicit in the shutdown of the center of Mexico City given that Federal District police are actually positioned to protect the PRD militants who are occupying the protest encampments, rather than attempting to move them out of the way to permit the downtown business district of the city to function. Right now, some of these encampments are manned by only a few dozen PRD supporters and it would be a very easy matter to move them out of the way, but Encinas will not do it and says that it is the fault of the Electoral Tribunal for not granting AMLO's demand for a complete recount. The PAN party in the Federal District has very publicly called for Encinas to resign, calling him a "puppet" of AMLO who is complicit in the shutdown of the center of the city. Encinas publicly rejected the use of the Federal Preventive Police (PFP) and said that the way to remove the blockades is "to confront the situation which generated the blockade," which means of course, to give in to AMLO's demands. The Fox administration may be taunting Encinas a bit. The President's spokesman stated this morning that the Federal District Government can ask for help if it cannot remove the encampments.

And now to what is really troubling. On Saturday I put up the information that Fox had ordered Mexican military and federal police units to guard key economic and government sites in Mexico City, including the offices of the Electoral Tribunal. Today, Encinas has ordered 350 officers of the Federal District Police (SSP-DF) to the site of the Electoral Tribunal offices "to guard security in the immediate vicinity" of the Electoral Tribunal. Well; what does this mean? On the face of it one would think these policemen would be reinforcements for the Mexican military and federal government police who are already on station there. But I am worried that there may be conflicts of authority in the making, because the Federal District government has been openly supportive of the shutdown in the center of Mexico City. I can envision several difficult scenarios unfolding here. One is that the Federal District police get into it with the Mexican military and federal police over who has ultimate authority to protect the Electoral Tribunal, because I have a difficult time believing that the federal authorities will want to cede control to the Federal District police, especially since the federal authorities may fear that the Federal District police may want to assist the demonstrators in seizing the tribunal's offices, in the same way they have assisted them in shutting down the central business district. I can also foresee the possibility that the Federal District police might act as an armed guard protecting the demonstrators as they shut down all access to the tribunal. This would put the onus on the federal authorities to act forcefully against the demonstrators, the kind of scenario I really expect AMLO is trying to provoke. And in the worse case scenario, which I think unlikely but still possible, I can envision the demonstrators emboldened to rush the Mexican military and federal police believing that they have the support of the Federal District police behind them. This is all very, very dangerous in my opinion. These next couple of days will be very important for setting the stage for what happens over the next few weeks.

And finally; some notes from an article entitled "A Powder Keg at the Point of Exploding." This is a quote of the scene at yesterday's demonstrations, please note how they are attacking the Pope as being one of their enemies, something very typical of the most radical revolutionary movements in Latin America:

". . . But the people continue giving in [to the exhortations of the speakers]. They say they are ready "to be attentive" to that which their candidate says and with stylized images of the Pope, of Hitler, of Fox, Ugalde, and Calderon they thunder at their adversaries. . . .

. . .Near the [landmark] Suarez Pine a group from Tlane appears in front of the palace headed by a man with a hood, boots, and gold cap; in an instant the demonstrators shout "if there is no solution there will be a revolution." Others add: "we are 600 of the first wave, we are ready, give your orders Señor El Presidente." They ended the assembly and today they will go to [the corner of] Santa Ana and Eje [avenues]. To the Tribunal."

With tempers running short; with PRD militants using rhetoric that far outstrips anything AMLO has said; with the Federal District government using its own security forces to support the shutdown of the very city they rule; with conflicting lines of authority between the Mexican military, federal government police and the Federal District police in front of the Electoral Tribunal; with AMLO and the PRD intent on forcing the Tribunal to do their bidding; and with tens of thousands of PRD demonstrators heading to the Electoral Tribunal today, I submit we are right up to the edge of a collapse here. There is still a chance that a calamity can be avoided, but everyone is right on edge at the moment.

Stay tuned everyone.

[kesg]

Just an update for you all here, nothing major has happened yet today, but we may be heading for a showdown that could come within the next 48 hours if AMLO and his followers decide to disrupt the Electoral Tribunal's work, which they are on the verge of threatening right now.

I seriously doubt that this will go over well with a majority of Mexicans, even many who voted for AMLO.

[StJacques]

I agree kesg, and that is why I think the utmost restraint is called for on the part of Fox and the federal authorities. If they can just keep the situation from exploding until the middle of this month, when the partial recount concludes, it will pretty much be over. AMLO has been losing support slowly but steadily ever since the shutdown of the central district of Mexico City a week ago. All Fox and the federal government have to do is wait it out, the longer AMLO and company continue their disruption, the more unpopular they will become and, after the Tribunal rules against them following the recount, the patience of the Mexican people will become very short.

[CedarDave]

Are all the ballots kept at the offices of the Electoral Tribunal? Is there a chance he/they might try to storm the offices and seize the ballots? And if he tries that are there enough federal officers to prevent it from happening? Would they yield to prevent violence and let the PRD through or do you think they would stand their ground?

[StJacques]

Dave, the ballots are kept at the home offices of the IFE in each of the 300 electoral districts around the country. There have been two instances where the PRD has "mobbed" two of the IFE's regional offices; one in Puebla and one in Comalcalco, Tabasco; where the PAN Party accused them of kidnapping a PAN official. I put that last instance up on a translation I posted.

So as to your question of whether there are enough federal officers to prevent the seizure of the ballots, I did see that the Mexican Army was deployed to guard them after the election and I can only assume that they are still guarding them now, though I do not know that for sure. And I do not see the Mexican Army standing down if push comes to shove.