Mexico's Electoral Tribunal Will Decide Tomorrow Whether to Recount Votes (Translation)

La Crónica de Hoy ^ | August 4, 2006 | Notimex ( translated by self )

[StJacques]

The TEPJF Decides Tomorrow if There Will Be a Recount of Votes

The Superior Court of the Electoral Tribunal of the Judicial Power of the Federation (TEPJF) will convene¹ a public session at 10:00 a.m. this Saturday, to resolve 175 received incident reports and will make a special pronouncement with reference to the challenges to the presidential election.

The seven magistrates who make up the Superior Court should pronounce their decision with respect to the electoral packets² to determine whether or not it will carry out a recount of votes of the presidential election of July 2.

At 10:15 a.m. this Friday the announcement was put up on the dockets of the TEPJF relative to the public session which has the object of resolving the 175 incidents with respect to an equal number of suits of [electoral] inconformity filed by the For the Good of All coalition.³

The list of proceedings includes JIN212, known as the "Mother of All Appeals" or the "Leading Appeal," filed by the For the Good of All coalition to challenge the validity of the presidential election and demanding a vote by vote recount in the 300 electoral districts of the country.

With reference to the aforementioned it is anticipated that Saturday morning the Superior Court will definitively pronounce itself with respect to the recount.

Among the [possible] scenarios are that the magistrates may incline themselves not to open any electoral packets; that they pronounce the opening of a specific number in 173 electoral districts, or they also could decide to proceed to the opening of all the electoral packets in the 300 electoral districts of the country.

The notice of the public session in the dockets is shaped by a total of 14 sheets of paper in which it makes clear the identifying number of each one of the proceedings that will be the object of analysis and legal opinion with relation to the incident report and the special Saturday pronouncement.

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Translator's Notes:

¹Sic, a grammatical error in original article, which uses the Preterite (past) Tense referring to a meeting that will take place tomorrow.

²The "electoral packets" are the crated and sealed paper ballots, which are also referred to as the casillas, a name that can alternatively be used to describe the precincts in which votes were cast.

³The "For the Good of All coalition" (La Coalición Por el Bien de Todos) represents an alliance of Lopez Obrador's PRD (Party of the Democratic Revolution), the PT (Labor Party), and Convergencia (Convergence for Democracy) in support of Lopez Obrador's presidential candidacy.

[SAJ]

Saint, please do add me to your MexElex ping list.

TIA!

[StJacques]

I just put you on it SAJ.

[Welike ike]

On the day before the Mexican election , Tradesports-intrade, the political betting site had Obrador as 78% to win. It is a junk site that is easily manipulated by emotional buyers. On election day 2004 after the Bogus exit polls for Kerry came out, Bush was at 18%. These sites are not Wall street, they are amateur junk.

[StJacques]

Hey kidd, on your "Significance of a Saturday Decision" . . .

It seems Lopez Obrador and the PRD are on to the strategy already and they are meeting to schedule a protest for the end of next week in response to whatever decision the Tribunal reaches.

This was just put up on the El Universal Mexico City newspaper web site (in Spanish) at:

http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/notas/366732.html

It's entitled "Coalition will analyze actions before the decision of the tribunal." I'm going to post a quick translation of the meat of the article:

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The strategy team of Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador will meet together this Friday at 5:00 p.m. in the Zocalo capital square to decide what actions they will take tomorrow when the Tribunal resolves whether it is preferable or not to count vote by vote the presidential election of last July 2.

The meeting between Horacio Duarte, Ricardo Monreal, Arturo Nuñez, and Manuel Camacho with Lopez Obrador will define the actions of civil resistance for the end of next week.

In a press conference, Ricardo Monreal asserted that the Electoral Tribunal has in its hands a historic resolution that will be judged over time.

By which he said "the magistrates cannot leave to one side what is happening in the street, that which the people request."

In as much, Horacio Duarte, representative of the PRD before the IFE [Federal Electoral Institute], advanced that even though they do not have guarantees that the Tribunal will order the vote by vote recount, they trust that the Judicial Power will award legitimacy to the next president of the Republic.

The Tribunal can correct the serious holdup that the federal government is trying to impose with a just decision devoted to the law, he asserted.

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Lopez Obrador and company are evidently making sure that no one is anticipating avoiding a reckoning if their challenge to the election is not upheld. It's pure intimidation.

[Shuttle Shucker]

I presume you've seen this by now, which analyzes what TRIFE might do tomorrow:

http://www.el-universal.com.mx/notas/366672.html

Closure would be nice :-)

[rovenstinez]

How right you are, THunderstorms. Wednesday night they said 400 tons of hail fell on the area, the worst night of rain in a decade. And more is predicted tonight. I like to call this..the paryt FOR THE WELFARE OF ALL, as the word Bien, sometimes in Mexico is used as Bienestar...Well Being. And the party PRD, referred to as Perredistas..should read PERDERISTA. LOSER. See for yourself go to a spanish dictionary and look up LOSER, Perdedor. SO, a Perderista would be the LOSERMAN's party.

[norton]

(still predicting civil war south of the border)

I've nothing much to add to the link - other than that Obrador has nowhere to go if he lets this fall on the wrong side.
His base will go looking for another man on a horse.

Which reminds me; all the talk of closing down mexico city - where is Obrador's base (besides the unions) and do they really care about shopkeepers in mexico city?

[StJacques]

"still predicting civil war south of the border"

I'm very worried about the possibility of violence. I do not think it will split the country up into regional conflict -- one region vs. another -- but in central and southern Mexico you could very well see a lot of violence. Oaxaca, Chiapas, Tabasco, the State of Mexico, and the Federal District could all become overwhelmed by violent political action that takes on a "class" nature very quickly. There could be complete disruption of the workings of the central government, which is unfortunately located in the midst of Lopez Obrador territory. And the worst-case scenario, which I do not think is likely but is at least possible, is that Lopez Obrador and his people could attempt to seize federal offices of all sorts in Mexico City and take on the federal government. That will mean real bloodshed. Again; I don't think it is likely, but I truly do see a willingness to destroy everything on Lopez Obrador's part and I won't discount this scenario entirely.

"where is Obrador's base (besides the unions) and do they really care about shopkeepers in mexico city?"

Lopez Obrador's base geographically is the central and southern part of the country. The State of Mexico (which surrounds the Federal District), the Federal District itself, Oaxaca, Chiapas, Tabasco, and Veracruz. Beyond those states there is a class nature to his support. And the unions are not as steadfast in support of him as they were during the campaign. A major union, the CROC (Revolutionary Confederation of Workers and Peasants), deserted his coalition earlier this week out of anger over the shutdown in Mexico City. Yes; you guessed it norton, Lopez Obrador is hurting his own people in an effort to intimidate the government.

[BunnySlippers]

Obrador's people were prevented from denying entry to the stock exchange today ... unlike yesterday. That gives me hope.

Keep in mind the south is always in turmoil ... even touristy Oaxaca where there have been mass demostrations over the last two week unrelated to the election.

I even witnessed one myself the last visit.

[SAJ]

You're fuller of crap than a Christmas goose, turkey.

While tradesports' various prop bets can be thin at times, and nobody confuses them with Wall Street -- hell's bell -- no one but someone like you would even think of that idiotic comparison.

Here's the lifetime chart of ObraGore's price:

Never above 60 in July, ever. Next time you want to try to scam someone, pick on someone on your own sorry level. 78%? My shiny Celtic a$$. Don't try to run your stupid games on a former professional book and a current professional trader.

Or, you might consider interviewing for a job with the LBM. Apparently, you'd fit right in there with your fellow fraudsters.

Or are you just another sorehead about the N. Korean missile launch mkt? In which, btw, I did not participate.

Yes, you've just been flamed. And I haven't seen anyone more deserving of being called out for a fraud and flamed than you on this forum in a couple of years.

[SAJ]

Quite right, Saint. ObraGore will do essentially anything he considers desirable to acquire power.

As is entirely typical throughout modern history, state socialists are here again not at all interested in their 'constituency' except as a means to power.

[SAJ]

One more thing. One VERY good way to profit consistently from trading is to wait for the emotional types to overbid/underbid a mkt, then fade them.

As regards Bush 2004, both RightWingProfessor and I did exactly that when the bogus exit polls came out in the afternoon, and reaped a **VERY** tasty profit. I only have the low for that mkt as 23 bid @ 24.2 at 2:34 pm central time, but if you say 18, perhaps so.

RWP stayed for the trip and made a good deal more profit than I almost surely, cashing out his possy @100; I took profits that night starting when GWB hit 65 bid, ending at 77.4 bid. Don't know where RWP got in, somewhere in the 30s I imagine. My avg purchase on 160 lots was 34.03 and a fraction, done on 6 separate orders, with a 50-lot at 29.6.

And, if you look it up right here on FR -- assuming only that the threads go back that far, or JimRob can dig them up on request -- you'll be able to see all the commentary in ''real time past''.

[StJacques]

SAJ; remind me never to pick a fight with you. :)

[StJacques]

Yeah; I'm very aware of the Oaxaca situation. I wrote a long blog criticizing the Christian Science Monitor's reporting of it, which didn't get much attention.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/1673383/posts

What demonstration did you witness BunnySlippers? I cannot help but mention here that even though you are somewhat reserved and "low key" in your posting, that you have also shown yourself to be very well informed on more than a few occasions. No need to hold back here now. We're your friends.

[SAJ]

Saint -- I'm the most reasonable chap you've ever met UNTIL sometime someone wants to throw kwap at me and call it 'fact' AND the kwap is easily disproven, as here.

I don't even dislike idiots such as this. Ultimately, they put dollars in my pocket sooner or later -- assuming they do in fact trade their view. If not, if they don't trade, we have a very specific term for them, to wit, ''mouth traders''.

In the wide, wide world of trading, I'm not certain which is held to be worse: welshing on a trade, or being a mouth trader. I daresay you can easily find folks to take either side of that proposition.

In any case, best regards to you, and thanks again so much for doing here, regarding the Mexican election, what the LBM don't seem to be willing to do anywhere.

[rhinohunter]

As a Tradesports player, do you have any predictions on what's going to happen with this Internet Gambling Ban that Big Brother is trying to pass? A) Will it pass the Senate, B) Will it explicitly prevent us from using Tradesports or C) if not an explicit ban will it scare off so many U.S. players that they go belly-up?

[SAJ]

Just guesses, that's all.

A) Probably. The majority there are statists.

B) Probably not. Explicitly naming particular persons/entities in legislation too easily can fall afoul of the ''no bill of attainder'' provision of the Constitution. However, that said, I should think it likely that they're going to try to put BetFair, tradesports, etc. out of business. After all, gambling revenues are their money, dontchaknow.

Now, that said, I don't think they'll succeed. These sites and others are too close to actual futures mkts for any except the hairsplittingest (sic...g!) court to rule differently. A number of the propositions traded serve (or can serve) a legitimate economic purpose of hedging away risk. With legislation like this in place, I should look for these sites to offer many more economic props, e.g., 'Will FOMC (or MPC or RBA or ECB) raise rates at next meeting?', and over/unders on US payrolls and GDP and so forth.

C) No opinion. I've no way to guess how 'scary' the legislation will seem to the average punter. Of course, it is (and will continue to be) utterly child's play to re-route one's play through a non-gambling 3rd party offshore, so -- regarding tradesports et al. -- this bill seems to me to be an exercise in futility.

In short, just about what one would expect from the Regress.

FReegards!

[hosepipe]

Mexicos democracy is a myth.. Except if you know that democracy is MOB RULE... Mexico is run by MOBS.. you are either "made" in the Mob or you be DEAD..

-OR- you are merely a peon... its always been that way in Mexico and more and more in Mexifornia.. and a few other adjoining States.. THATS WHY...

[Shuttle Shucker]

Getta load of this:
Car drives to a protest campamento, harms nobody but gets arrested & the vehicle's impounded:

http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/notas/366835.html

Not a biased police force or anything...

[Welike ike]

You are completely wrong so called expert and Bookie. You admit to being a bookie, what a distinguished career you have. Your chart is bogus and so are you.