[norton]

(still predicting civil war south of the border)

I've nothing much to add to the link - other than that Obrador has nowhere to go if he lets this fall on the wrong side.
His base will go looking for another man on a horse.

Which reminds me; all the talk of closing down mexico city - where is Obrador's base (besides the unions) and do they really care about shopkeepers in mexico city?

[StJacques]

"still predicting civil war south of the border"

I'm very worried about the possibility of violence. I do not think it will split the country up into regional conflict -- one region vs. another -- but in central and southern Mexico you could very well see a lot of violence. Oaxaca, Chiapas, Tabasco, the State of Mexico, and the Federal District could all become overwhelmed by violent political action that takes on a "class" nature very quickly. There could be complete disruption of the workings of the central government, which is unfortunately located in the midst of Lopez Obrador territory. And the worst-case scenario, which I do not think is likely but is at least possible, is that Lopez Obrador and his people could attempt to seize federal offices of all sorts in Mexico City and take on the federal government. That will mean real bloodshed. Again; I don't think it is likely, but I truly do see a willingness to destroy everything on Lopez Obrador's part and I won't discount this scenario entirely.

"where is Obrador's base (besides the unions) and do they really care about shopkeepers in mexico city?"

Lopez Obrador's base geographically is the central and southern part of the country. The State of Mexico (which surrounds the Federal District), the Federal District itself, Oaxaca, Chiapas, Tabasco, and Veracruz. Beyond those states there is a class nature to his support. And the unions are not as steadfast in support of him as they were during the campaign. A major union, the CROC (Revolutionary Confederation of Workers and Peasants), deserted his coalition earlier this week out of anger over the shutdown in Mexico City. Yes; you guessed it norton, Lopez Obrador is hurting his own people in an effort to intimidate the government.