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[Another Field] Poll shows Jessica's Law, new taxes have support
Contra Costa Times ^ | 8/2/6 | Steven Harmon

Posted on 08/02/2006 7:41:01 AM PDT by SmithL

SACRAMENTO - A new statewide poll released today shows that voters are more than willing to make life tougher for sex offenders, smokers and oil company executives.

More than three-fourths of voters -- 76 percent to 11 percent -- support Proposition 83, or Jessica's Law, according to Field Poll surveys on five of the 13 measures on the November ballot. The measure would lengthen sentences for sex offenders and require lifetime global positioning system monitoring

"It would be hard to beat back," said Mark DiCamillo, director of the Field Poll. "I don't see a big 'no' side that would need to be present, so it's pretty comfortable at this stage."

Voters also strongly support Proposition 86, which is another tax on cigarettes, and Proposition 87, which is a tax on oil companies. Opponents, however, are gearing up for big-money campaigns to defeat them.

"Voters tend to be supportive in the early going in a fairly big way," DiCamillo said. "But once the campaign kicks in, you can see what the impact of the ad campaigns have with voter preferences.

"You need to start out with a big lead because you know the interests on the no-side will be waging a vigorous campaign to defeat them."

The tax on oil companies -- proceeds would promote investments in alternative energy -- is favored by 52 percent to 31 percent.

Oil companies already have poured in more than $10 million to defeat the measure. Proponents have raised a little more than $5 million, including a $1.1 million donation from Menlo Park venture capitalist Vinod Khosla.

The cigarette tax had an even wider margin of support, 63 percent to 32 percent, in the poll. The measure would impose a $2.65 per pack cigarette tax to fund hospital emergency services and health insurance to eligible children.

Philip Morris and R.J. Reynolds are bankrolling two separate campaign committees to defeat it, and have dropped in a combined $2.1 million. So far, though, they've been easily out-raised by the initiative's proponents, led by the California Association of Hospitals and Health Systems, which on its own has poured in $7.5 million.

While Republicans typically reject tax increases, 54 percent of those who identify themselves as Republicans said they support a cigarette tax. Only 34 percent of Republicans supported the tax on oil companies.

"You wouldn't expect that kind of support," DiCamillo said. "It must be that if there's a very compelling purpose, like hospital emergency services, funding eligible children, these are motherhood issues that outweigh their reluctance."

The most closely contested measure so far is Proposition 85, which requires doctors to notify parents or guardians before an abortion is performed on a minor. In the poll, 44 percent support the measure and 45 percent oppose it.

A similar measure was put before voters in the November special election and failed by a 53-47 margin. No groups have formed campaign committees on the issue.

"Here we are, eight months from the last vote, and we have similar results," DiCamillo said. "It says voters have come to terms with this idea. They're slow to change their conclusions. It will certainly come down to the wire."

A plurality of voters -- 46 percent to 31 percent -- agree with Proposition 90, which would prevent state and local governments from condemning or damaging private property to promote other private projects.

The results were based on a survey of 762 likely voters, and had a margin of error of 3.8 percentage points.


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Extended News; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: California
KEYWORDS: calinitiatives; cigarettes; election2006; fieldpoll; jessicaslaw; prop83; prop85; prop86; prop87; prop90; taxesarewonderful
tax on oil companies -- proceeds would promote investments in alternative energy -- is favored by 52 percent to 31 percent.

So, 52% of Californians don't think they're paying enough for gasoline?

1 posted on 08/02/2006 7:41:02 AM PDT by SmithL
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To: SmithL

Looks like envy will collect a lot of California votes this year.


2 posted on 08/02/2006 7:43:16 AM PDT by Eric in the Ozarks (BTUs are my Beat.)
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To: SmithL
Tax the evil "Big Oil" so you can pay more at the pump?

Only in CA.

Well maybe in any state where a majority of voters got a public school education. Ooops, that's all states.
3 posted on 08/02/2006 7:44:13 AM PDT by PeteB570 (Guns, what real men want for Christmas)
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To: SmithL

So, 52% of Californians don't think they're paying enough for gasoline?
-----
If this poll can even be believed, it shows how liberals "think". They are not being taxed, the RICH OIL COMPANIES ARE!! Such stupidity keeps liberalism alive, especially in Taxifornia.


4 posted on 08/02/2006 7:44:18 AM PDT by EagleUSA
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To: SmithL
So, 52% of Californians don't think they're paying enough for gasoline?

No 52% of the bad sample that the Field poll chose support it.

5 posted on 08/02/2006 7:46:38 AM PDT by ElkGroveDan (California bashers will be called out)
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To: SmithL

ner-do-wells are always in favor of taxing their betters.

Class warfare is SOP for Rats.


6 posted on 08/02/2006 7:47:34 AM PDT by bert (K.E. N.P. Slay Pinch)
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To: SmithL

I really think it is too late for this state or more accurately, too late for the state's taxpayers. We are all just doing the last swirls around the toilet bowl.


7 posted on 08/02/2006 7:59:06 AM PDT by sheana
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To: SmithL
"Voters also strongly support Proposition 86, which is another tax on cigarettes, and Proposition 87, which is a tax on oil companies."

The tax on gas will only increase the cost per gal. Don't these idiots know that the oil co will just increase the cost to offset the tax. There voting to increase the cost of gas and in return the gov't gets to spend even more of their money. Amen.
8 posted on 08/02/2006 8:00:15 AM PDT by gakrak ("A wise man's heart is his right hand, But a fool's heart is at his left" Eccl 10:2)
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To: SmithL
More than three-fourths of voters -- 76 percent to 11 percent -- support Proposition 83, or Jessica's Law, according to Field Poll surveys on five of the 13 measures on the November ballot. The measure would lengthen sentences for sex offenders and require lifetime global positioning system monitoring...

A mandatory death penalty for child rapists would be better - maybe next year.

9 posted on 08/02/2006 8:02:47 AM PDT by GOPJ
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To: bert
When California raises the cigarette tax to that level the amount of money coming in from cig-tax will go down.

It will be to the point that smokers will smuggle cigarette in from out of state, and then they lose every stinking dime of tax!( even the sales tax )

I think McClintock wrote an article about how stupid that tax would be.

Michigan tried that and now their cig-tax revenue is about half of what it was before the last big increase.
10 posted on 08/02/2006 8:04:50 AM PDT by Beagle8U (Liberals get up every morning and eat a big box of "STUPID" for breakfast)
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To: SmithL
Its still early. We need to make people aware these measures will raise their taxes. All we need is to get them to vote NO!

(Go Israel, Go! Slap 'Em Down Hezbullies.)

11 posted on 08/02/2006 8:07:17 AM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives On In My Heart Forever)
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To: SmithL
The cigarette tax had an even wider margin of support, 63 percent to 32 percent, in the poll. The measure would impose a $2.65 per pack cigarette tax to fund hospital emergency services and health insurance to eligible children.

$2.65 tax on about 70 cents worth of tobacco.

12 posted on 08/02/2006 8:09:15 AM PDT by NeoCaveman (The race is on http://blackwellvstrickland.blogspot.com)
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To: NeoCaveman
http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=109&STORY=/www/story/10-25-2004/0002308503&EDATE=

"We told the Governor and the Legislature a tax this high would drive
smokers to find their cigarettes elsewhere, and this is what has happened,"
said Polly Reber, Michigan Distributors and Vendors Association. "While
Michigan retailers along the state borders have lost almost all of their
cigarette sales, retailers on the other side of the border in Indiana, Ohio,
and Wisconsin have benefited with skyrocketing sales. Michigan's tax rate at
$20.00 a carton is so far above our surrounding states, it is impossible to
compete. By comparison, Ohio is $5.50 a carton, Indiana is $5.55 a carton,
and Kentucky is 30 cents a carton."

Let California give it a try, once they lose the tax base they will never get it back.
13 posted on 08/02/2006 8:33:46 AM PDT by Beagle8U (Liberals get up every morning and eat a big box of "STUPID" for breakfast)
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To: Beagle8U
.....Michigan tried that ...

As an aside, I read this morning in Forbes that Hezbollah developed the Ciggy smuggling business in Michigan and shipped the proceeds to Lebanon to fund their Military machine.
14 posted on 08/02/2006 8:40:06 AM PDT by bert (K.E. N.P. Slay Pinch)
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To: SmithL
Just another example of how rabidly stupid the average American voter has become. They live in a fantasy land where they can "get even" with the Oil Executives while still demanding cheap and plentiful supplies of automotive fuel.

Heck, there are even long term Freepers here who still cannot grasp the reality that Business pay no taxes at all but merely shift the tax cost to those who buy their products.
15 posted on 08/02/2006 8:40:07 AM PDT by MNJohnnie (Fire Murtha Now! Spread the word. Support Diana Irey. http://www.irey.com/)
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To: SmithL

I want to know what Republicans are in favor of the cigarette tax increase. I'd like to give them a piece of my mind. People who don't smoke think "yeah, let's sock it to the smoker". What they don't realize is someday it will come back to bite them in the butt. I hate liberals and conservatives alike when they think they know what's best for me. What, more cigarette tax so stupid people like rob rheiner can do some more commercials about forcing preschool on the public?


16 posted on 08/02/2006 8:43:23 AM PDT by Not just another dumb blonde
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To: bert

http://www.mackinac.org/article.aspx?ID=7151

"These are by no means the first tobacco-related smuggling arrests involving Michigan. In 2002, the Mackinac Center wrote about two cigarette smugglers arrested in an FBI sting. The duo were driving vans of illicit cigarettes from North Carolina to Detroit and allegedly using a portion of their profits to subsidize the work of Hezbollah, a terrorist organization in Lebanon with possible links to al-Qaida.

An associate of one of those smugglers, a Dearborn resident, was arrested in a different operation. He subsequently pled guilty to smuggling as much as $72,000 worth of illicit tobacco each month to Michigan. According to the U.S. Department of Justice, he gave a portion of his profits to an "orphans of martyrs program" run by Hezbollah to help the relations of those killed in the group’s terrorist operations or by its enemies."

You are correct Bert, Cig. taxes should bring lots of terrorists into California to set up business.


17 posted on 08/02/2006 9:02:01 AM PDT by Beagle8U (Liberals get up every morning and eat a big box of "STUPID" for breakfast)
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To: SmithL
Here's a compilation of the two recent Field polls:
(My crystal ball says that they won't even be close to the real outcome)

8/2/2006 #2208: Big early leads for Prop. 86 (cigarette taxes), Prop. 87 (alternative energy/oil tax) and especially Prop. 83 (sex offenders).

                                                            Yes      No   Undecided
Prop 83  Jessica's Law, sex offender punishment              76%     11      13
Prop 85  Parental Notification                               44%     45      11
Prop 86  Cigarette Tax                                       63%     32       5
Prop 87  Alternative energy, Oil Tax                         52%     31      17
Prop 90  Eminent Domain                                      46%     31      23

7/28/2006 #2206: Voters are supporting four of the five bond proposals on the November ballot, although not by overwhelming margins.

                                                            Yes      No   Undecided
Prop 1B  Highway/Traffic/Air/Port Bond  ($19.9 billion)      54%     27      19
Prop 1C  Housing/Emergency Shelter Bond  ($2.8 billion)      33%     42      25
Prop 1D  Kindergarten-Univ School Bond   ($10.4 billion)     48%     37      15
Prop 1E  Disaster/Flood Protection Bond  ($4.1 billion)      47%     33      20
Prop 84  Water Quality/Park Bond         ($5.4 billion)      49%     31      20

No Field Poll yet reported:

Prop 1A  Transportation Funding Protection
Prop 88  Parcel Tax
Prop 89  Taxpayer Funding of Campaigns

18 posted on 08/02/2006 11:26:47 AM PDT by calcowgirl ("Liberalism is just Communism sold by the drink." P. J. O'Rourke)
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To: Gabz; SheLion
Isn't this just precious?

Voters also strongly support Proposition 86, which is another tax on cigarettes... The cigarette tax had an even wider margin of support, 63 percent to 32 percent, in the poll.

The measure would impose a $2.65 per pack cigarette tax to fund hospital emergency services and health insurance to eligible children.

While Republicans typically reject tax increases, 54 percent of those who identify themselves as Republicans said they support a cigarette tax.

"You wouldn't expect that kind of support," DiCamillo said. "It must be that if there's a very compelling purpose, like hospital emergency services, funding eligible children, these are motherhood issues that outweigh their reluctance."

19 posted on 08/02/2006 2:04:42 PM PDT by DumpsterDiver
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To: DumpsterDiver
The need is clear: repeal suffrage, save America.
20 posted on 08/02/2006 2:40:14 PM PDT by newzjunkey (Support Arnold-McClintock or embrace higher taxes, gay weddings with Angelides.)
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