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To: Godzilla
Great analysis, 'Zilla. Thanks.

Do you think that Israel has lost the critical momentum needed to carry this to a swift and satisfactory conclusion? What will it take? They obviously don't want to get involved in another long bloody occupation.

IF Iran is indeed ready to unleash HELL on Israel via the nuclear scenario (maybe August 22nd) is there any sort of speculation as to the nominal yields they may have been able to achieve? How big a bang? Given an answer to the question of yield, do they have delivery capability?

Finally if (GOD forbid) they were successful in launching a nuke on Israel...it's certain that Israel would respond in kind...but what might OUR response be in accordance with any treaties of defense? That's kind of a lot to respond to, sorry.

545 posted on 08/09/2006 11:21:17 AM PDT by ExSoldier (Democracy is 2 wolves and a lamb voting on dinner. Liberty is a well armed lamb contesting the vote.)
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To: ExSoldier
Do you think that Israel has lost the critical momentum needed to carry this to a swift and satisfactory conclusion? What will it take? They obviously don't want to get involved in another long bloody occupation.

It will not be a pretty fight. Hezbollah will go to their well developed system of bunkers to pop-out in the IDF 'rear'. They have shown creativity with ATGMs which will hurt armor support to the infantry. Some have likened it to Iwo Jima. However, Hezbollah has shown to be less than adequate at close quarters with the IDF. As far as time frames, I expect that it will take close to two weeks, unless Hezbollah breaks (and who knows how effective the air campaign has been). To avoid the occupation is why Israel is pushing for a force with TEETH, not the UN.

IF Iran is indeed ready to unleash HELL on Israel via the nuclear scenario (maybe August 22nd) is there any sort of speculation as to the nominal yields they may have been able to achieve?

Assuming they have a working nuke, it would take some time to get it small enough to mount on one of their rockets. If we believe their propaganda regarding where they are on their own, they haven't gotten to the weapons grade enrichment point. This leaves us with a nasty scenario that IF Iran has nukes, the warheads may have come from another country.
If they have a bomb of their own design, it is probably as big as the initial US bombs. If of foreign origin, they could be a lot bigger. Delivery - Iranian origin, vehicular/aircraft, foreign sources, rocket warheads.

Finally if (GOD forbid) they were successful in launching a nuke on Israel...it's certain that Israel would respond in kind...but what might OUR response be in accordance with any treaties of defense? That's kind of a lot to respond to, sorry.

If Iran strikes with a nuke, then all barriers are off and Israel will turn Tehran into glass. That will also permit us to strike at their nuclear program facilities. Our rights will be as expressed under the Bush doctrine of striking terror states that threaten our existence as well as or stated support for Israel that we'll defend it if attacked.

550 posted on 08/09/2006 11:41:18 AM PDT by Godzilla (OK, who stopped payment on my reality check?)
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