Israel At War
24-hour forecast
The situation continues to be very fluid. Expect increased rocket attacks by Hezbollah and the expansion of the ground offensive by IDF (when Olmert finally lets them go).
Godzilla Observations
Disturbing piece of information promulgating across the new wires – China has put the word out for ALL of its citizens in Israel to immediately leave the country. This suggests that some intelligence by the Chicoms indicates that something BIG may be on the horizon.
The ground ‘offensive’ is still going no where fast. The farthest penetration into Lebanon so far has only been about 4 miles – a far cry from the 20 miles to the Litani River. Hezbollah has been employing unconventional tactics including extensive use of guided anti-tank missiles to engage at long distances. One video clip on the web yesterday showed two such missiles fired from a civilian house before it was destroyed. This, combined with the deeply dug in emplacements will make for slow going. Olmert claims the slow pace is to prevent Israeli causalities, but more likely reflects indecisiveness on his part to really let the military do what needs to be done.
IDF Ground Offensive
Israeli troops advanced 4 miles into southern Lebanon Thursday attempting to create a security zone. The size of the IDF ground force currently committed now appears to be approximately 10,000. The IDF have added three new penetrations of the Lebanese territory - one in the general area of Sarda in the eastern portion of the border zone and two in the western portion of the border zone: in the vicinity of Ramyah and a second is further west in the vicinity of Marwahin/Shihin. The thrust toward Shihin appears to have been relatively successful, killing many terrorists and destroying Hezbollah supply storage sites. Heavy shelling is reported this morning in the area, but no significant fighting on the ground. Intensive shelling is reported in all these areas, except in Marun Al Ras. The IDF has maintained and reinforced their presence in five other locations on Lebanese territory :
1. Ayta ash Shab – Very fierce fighting in this area.
2. Marun Al Ras area. This is the area IDF pulled back to after its brief excursion into Bint Jubayl.
3. Mays al Jabal area.
4. Hula/Markaba area.
5. Addasseh-At Tayyabah area including al-Aweida.
In a hopeful sign that Israel is going to get serious in the ground campaign, Senior military officials say Defense Minister Amir Peretz told top army officers to prepare to push Israeli control 18 miles into south Lebanon to the Litani River, The Associated Press reports.
IAF Activity
Israeli jets bombed Hizbollah stronghold in southern Beirut, a bridge in the northern Akkar region, the eastern Bekaa Valley, roads near the Syrian border and around the southern town of Nabatiyeh -- among 70 targets hit.
Hezbollah Rockets
The northern Israeli community of Kiryat Shemona has been hit hard by systematic rocket barrages. Haifa and Acre are also receiving rocket strikes. Firing rates are more densely packed with 100 rockets landing in Northern Israel within half an hour according to Sky News. Additional deaths across N. Israel bringing the count to 8, making today one of the bloodiest one of the rocket blitz.
RUMINT – Continued threat by Hezbollah of rocketing Tel Aviv if Beirut is attacked / bombed. IDF is taking this threat seriously.