Protesters bring gridlock to capital (Leftist seizure of Mexico City central district continues)

Houston Chronicle ^ | August 1, 2006 | Dudley Althaus

[StJacques]

Lopez Obrador and his supporters say they're staying until judges order a full recount

MEXICO CITY - Militants loyal to leftist presidential contender Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador threw up tents and blockaded streets in the center of Mexico's capital Monday, snarling traffic, disrupting business and forcing workers to walk many blocks, even miles, to their jobs.

Newspapers and the airwaves filled with condemnation from officials and citizens alike.

But Lopez Obrador and his followers say they're staying for as long as it takes to convince a tribunal of seven election judges to order a full recount of the July 2 vote.

"We recognize there is irritation, but the only ones who are really bothered by this are those with money," shrugged Rodolfo Caballero, a gray-haired Mexico City ward heeler from Lopez Obrador's political party who manned a tent inthe city center's shopping district. "We're demanding that officials assume their responsibility."

Lopez Obrador claims incompetence, biased election officials and outright fraud robbed him of victory. Official results have him losing by less than one percentage point to conservative Felipe Calderon.

Lopez Obrador and his aides have filed complaints with the federal electoral tribunal, which has until Sept. 6 to rule on who is Mexico's president-elect or to scrap the election altogether. The leftist leader has said he'll never accept defeat without a full ballot recount. . . .

[StJacques]

I think the above article speaks for itself, the blockades of downtown Mexico City are still up and Lopez Obrador's seizure of the central district persists. I have some notes on other ongoing developments from Mexican web sites I want to post to bring everyone up to date on other developments associated with this, but I'll stick those in to a subsequent post I'm going to put up in a second.

[StJacques]

Before we get to the ongoing blockade, there may be a bigger piece of news to address. The Electoral Tribunal released a statement saying that they are analyzing the possibility of a recount. Though the reporting of the Tribunal's exact words is filled with "legalese," I do not think they are preparing to do the full recount Lopez Obrador is demanding, though their language is generalized enough to suggest they are considering it. What is clearly on the table however, is a recount either within or of the entirety of some 122 electoral districts. This is what is said about the possibility of a recount:

"By unanimous agreement of the member magistrates of the Upper Chamber of the Tribunal, they are opening a procedural phase they refer to as "incidental resolution," in which they bring together the [For the Good of All] coalition's appeals of inconformity only for that which they refer to as their solicitude to return to a counting of the votes.

In case they do not proceed, the body clarified that they would only consider a partial recount that would cover precincts [Spanish "casillas"] from 122 electoral districts."

Now one might take from the above that they are bowing to AMLO's pressure, but I would disagree. There is also the following statement to consider: ". . . by the form in which they present their decision, it will be the 7 magistrates who decide if there will be a total recount." I am in no doubt that is their way of sending a message to AMLO that "this matter will be decided in our chambers and nowhere else." I think Mexican judges are very much like judges everywhere, they do not like to be subjected to intimidation and I believe AMLO and company are making a serious mistake to try to do so.

Now; on the blockade, there is some suggestion in the news reporting that the blockage of the Paseo de la Reforma Avenue will be addressed by the Federal District Government (GDF), whose Governor Alejandro Encinas, is a PRD party member and AMLO supporter. Yesterday the trade association Coparmex (acronym for the Employers Federation of the Mexican Republic) demanded that Alejandro Encinas step down as Governor stating that the hotels along the Paseo de la Reforma alone were losing over 12 million American dollars per day under this blockade. There is quite a bit of reporting of tempers flaring, insults and obscenities flying around in the capital as well, so I don't think that popular opinion is with AMLO and company given the extremely numerous articles I am seeing revealing popular indignation over the difficulties the blockade is causing. Encinas did state today that he will try to negotiate an opening of crossings across the Paseo de la Reforma, but he reiterated that he will not use force. And the chorus of political voices accusing Encinas of deliberate complicity with his own PRD in his refusal to clear access to the downtown sections is growing. Federal deputies (congressmen) from both the PRI and PAN called for his removal as head of the Federal District Government for having "permitted one party to do violence to constitutional rights." One deputy in particular said Encinas has "left in evidence that he does not govern for all the city."

And finally; there is AMLO himself. He has announced that he is planning more acts of civil resistance, so there is clearly no intent on his part to back down. He has been touring the various encampments in the center of the city, and he may have been in some kind of a fight. The following picture, taken this morning, shows him with what looks to be the aftermath of a blow above his right eye:



AMLO's aides would not release any details of how this happened and AMLO himself would not comment.

[DustyMoment]

Protesters bring gridlock to capital

Too bad Al Gore didn't think of this. It would have been interesting to see and his supporters go to Mexico City and lock up the central district.

At least it would have spared the US the embarrassment of his childish tantrums.

[weeder]

Tahnks for the heads-up. Shades of Alberto Goreo.

[StJacques]

"Shades of Alberto Goreo"

I think the popular name that has been circulating is "Andres Manuel Lopez ObraGore."

[CedarDave]

From the article:

"We are seeking to make sure the court makes its own decision and is not pressured by the government," said Horacio Duarte, one of the leftist's election experts.

unhuh...the only ones pressuring the election court ARE the leftists.

[Enterprise]

""We recognize there is irritation, but the only ones who are really bothered by this are those with money,"

Again, cloaking himself with the moral authority to act on behalf of those who are poor. However, those who are poor, and who need to work, are those who are walking many blocks, and maybe miles, to get to work. Those people, of course, are not to be considered by the party which wants to seize power (and trust me on this) - "by all means necessary."

[Deo volente]

We had something like this a few months ago here in Los Angeles.

At least 400,000 people were marching and tying up the streets, protesting the House immigration bill. And the mayor, Antonio Villaraigosa, was cheering them on.

Several hundred high school students even walked onto the Hollywood freeway and succeeded in shutting it down for at least an hour. It was a traffic nightmare.

That was just a preview of what we can look forward to here in America, if we don't stop the invasion.

[CedarDave]

In case they do not proceed, the body clarified that they would only consider a partial recount that would cover precincts [Spanish "casillas"] from 122 electoral districts."

A couple of questions, if you can answer them:

...from 122 electoral districts...
What percentage of the total number of electoral districts is this?
And does that mean they would recount each precinct within one of the 122 named districts or only selected ones where they feel there are problems?

Obviously, any recount with that slim a margin can possible make the margin even thinner, but there may be no way around that if the court discovers irregularities. Obviously what I hope is that the number of suspected problems occurred in only a small fraction of the total number of precincts.

[mjolnir]

Thanks again for the great job! I hope PAN's comments about the limits of the power of the judiciary you noted earlier don't come back to haunt them.

Do you remember if AMLO's previous shutdown of Mexico City to get himself on the ballot generated similar disgust within the city?

It sounds as though Encinas not forcing the PRD dupes and thugs to disperse might actually take away from PRD and AMLO's popular support this time. Encinas may think he's advancing the PRD agenda by letting AMLO and the rest repulse everybody else, but perhaps he's unwittingly stabbing his party in the back. I hope so!

[Shuttle Shucker]

Unfortunately, "tacos" of votes may have been stuffed into some of those contested boxes between July 2nd and now. As the law didn't require a recount in this situation, the PAN didn't have the power or incentive to zealously avoid such ballot-stuffing after hours. To punish the PAN now, retroactively, by letting fraud-laced ballot boxes get reopened and "recounted" seems highly unfair.

[JeeperFreeper]

Interesting post. The drug lords will still run the gov't, particularly in the border states of Mexico.

[StJacques]

"What percentage of the total number of electoral districts is this?"

There are 300 electoral districts in all, so, with recounts under consideration in 122 of them, that amounts to 40.67% of the total.

"And does that mean they would recount each precinct within one of the 122 named districts or only selected ones where they feel there are problems?"

This is my question as well. I am certain they can order a recount in every precinct, but what I have been reading of the impugnaciones (challenges) that have been submitted thus far, is that unless serious errors in handling the reports of votes (Actas) at the district level are shown, then a full district recount is unlikely and it would instead take place in those precincts where errors are likely to have occurred. There is also the issue of PRD commissioners being present at the counting of the votes. One article I read on Saturday made clear that the PRD representatives who made the presentation before the Tribunal were questioned extensively about the absence of PRD commissioners in certain precincts and what that meant to the PRD. I can readily envision that if the PRD is presenting evidence that they believe fraud occurred in precincts where they were not represented that the Tribunal would want to give them a chance to see the votes recounted in those precincts.

And do not forget that PAN has also alleged fraud in the counting of votes in numerous PRD-controlled areas of the country too. They presented a total of 122 impugnaciones of their own, so if the Tribunal orders a recount based on PRD challenges, it seems likely to me they would also order one in response to those of the PAN party as well.

I do want to make clear that I am having some difficulty getting a handle on what the TEPJF will really do. It is clear to me that they do not want to annul the election, and that is a point revealed in that article I linked on their deliberations, but I am also sure they want to instill confidence in the vote results. What I cannot tell is to what degree they are genuinely above political pressure. They made a statement today that at least shows they want the public to feel they are non-partisan, but saying and doing are not the same thing. The proof will be in the actions they take.

[gridlock]

Protesters bring Gridlock to capital

I swear, I've never even been to Mexico City!

[StJacques]

I'll say this mjolnir, Encinas and the PRD will lose big-time if all the difficulties they are creating do not result in some verifiable political gain for them and I am pretty well convinced they will not. This could be a dramatic setback for the PRD in the eyes of many voters who either voted for them already with slight misgivings or were among those they could pursue in a future election campaign. Events like this are not quickly forgotten.

I would call to mind the memory of Florida voters of the behavior of the Democrats in 2000. On election day 2004 it was very clear that there was a "hidden" Bush vote that didn't speak up when the pollsters came calling before the election. "Hidden" voters are usually angry voters and the post-election polling in Florida made clear that their memories of 2000 remained strong and that the Democrats lost out in that remembrance.

[CedarDave]

I suspose they could take a middle ground and order recounts of a certain percentage of the disputed precincts from both sides. If there are no significant errors, they would not recount the rest of them. If there were major differences, the recount of those would proceed.

[Shuttle Shucker]

It would help if none of them are made into martyrs though. Some have nothing to lose and will try to mimic Tlatelolco (1968) student massacre victims, going down for a supposedly noble "revolution". If Fidel Castro dies, it will be interesting to see if that emboldens the Lefties or weakens them like the collapse of the Soviet Union did.

[gridlock]

Get Out Of Calderon's House!

[StJacques]

"Get Out Of Calderon's House!"

LOL! And you tried to tell us you'd never been to Mexico City.

[StJacques]

"It would help if none of them are made into martyrs though."

I think you've just hit on what I consider to be the real underlying strategy AMLO and company are pursuing. They want the federal government to intervene so their charges of its complicity in fixing the election will be given substance. Mexicans will rally to what they may view as a courageous stand against the powerful. But they will also reject interference with the normal exercise of the law in a way that hurts the "little people" for reasons of selfish political gain. The time to move against the PRD will be after the Electoral Tribunal rules against it. Then no one will have patience with their desires to disrupt the lives of ordinary working people with no chance of political gain.