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>>>>> ... do you think the DNC is going to pick up 30 seats basely on a generic question?

Probably not. In my original post at #7, I specifically mentioned that the GOP is still ahead based on the individual races.

Since I'm not one of those conservatives who sees a "liberal-bogyman" behind every political poll, I try to take ALL public opinion data at face value. In 1994 the Pew and Gallup polls had the GOP overtaking the Dems in the final month of the campaign. With 90 days to go, many GOP Congressmen believe the outcome in 2006 is very shaky at best.

Reagan, I agree. Why do we all worry about Summer polling when it really means nothing? I mean it is obvious that winds usually change in October when the average voter starts to pay attention. It all comes down to the ground troops and $$$ in the last 4 weeks. Just like Brian Bilbray beating Busby in California due to ground troops, after she, according to many Freepers here, was supposed to win.

I generally agree. It has become much more about the race by race analysis because of another generation of redistricting by both parties which primarily strengthened incumbents. I live near NV District #3 which is supposed to be in the Dem column as it was the last two cycles. But there is virtually no chance in hell they are going to get it since they don't even have a candidate anybody can name.

Even the notion that if the race is nationalized somehow the Dems benefit I think is old wisdom which is no longer relevant. The first nationalized election was 1994 and we smoked them. Each time we have gotten onto the issues and away from local pork, we have won (impeachment being the exception). Strangely, the GOP is now thinking that turning towards local pork politics as being the way to keep the House is smarter since it worked for the Dems for 40 years. That is probably a bigger sign of doom for us than anything else since it will mean we have become that which we sought to overthrow.

Actually, if the generic ballot question were polled ONLY in the districts which were 55% or less in 2004 that would be something I would put much more faith in.