Replies

OK,

before we know what Ms Rice is going to bring to Israel, and before we actually know what the IDF has been allowed to do or not to do, let us look at the situation from the other side.

By the other side I do not mean Iran, Syria, Hezbollah etc, but our other enemies - the appeasers, the EU, the UN, State Dept in the US, FO in the UK, the DIms etc etc.

Whether they understand it or not an end to the present conflict that makes it look like Israel has lost will actually cause a lot of problems for the groups I mentioned above.

a) If Hezbollah is allowed to "win", ie survive, there is no way Iran is going to give in regarding its nuclear development program. UN/EU/diplomacy without any guns behind it will once again be seen to be completely useless - not good for State, UN, EU, FO if its Pentagon that will have to deal with the issue.

b) Whether one likes it or not, in the Middle East Israel is seen as a client of the US. If Israel is seen to lose then it means that the US is weak. Syria and Iran will increase their aid to their respective clients in Iraq and the risk of a civil war will increase. (I argue that in direct contradiction to what so called "right-wing" nuts like Buchanan contend - a US support of a winner will not increase the risk of civil war in Iraq, but a loser will.)

A civil war in Iraq may cause short term benefits to the Democrats, but in the long term it will mean more US forces in the Middle East, and a possible military confrontation with Iran.

c) One of the major losers if Hezbollah wins will be the Christians and the Sunnis and the Druzes in Lebanon. The winners, apart from Hezbollah, will be Syria, Iran and the Shiite community in Lebanon. I am not so sure that France will be happy about that.

d) Another main loser - and now we are talking of a darling of the "International Community - will be Abbas and Fatah. If Hezbollah "wins" it will be a major boost for Hamas. Abbas will lose all power, large numbers of Fatah members will change allegiances, and in any future civil war Fatah will lose.

e) Whether they like it or not sometime the International Community will have to take into account the Israeli voters. If Olmert allows Hezb to survive, and with them the threat of further missile strikes against all of Israel, it is more than likely that we will see a new election in Israel very shortly.

A right wing government, where the leader of Likud may be the most moderate is not unlikely in such a scenario.

The Road Map to Peace would be dead, a reoccupation of Gaza would probably take place, and maybe a new clash between Israel and Lebanon.

And Israel may find it necessary to use Jeffers 4th point - no rockets stationed within x miles of Israel, and ALL options are on the table.

It is possible that the anti-Israeli sentiment, the anti-Semitism, the hope of giving President Bush a black eye, will make the appeasers and Tranzis overlook all the problems that a cease-fire will cause their pet policies, but if only very very slightly rational, the best they can hope for - from their own point of view - is for Israel to thump Hezbollah properly.