That is how I see it as well. But add to this midterm elections are also about getting out the base. The rat base is hot, is ours? I do not know, but I know this many of my friends and family who are reasonably conservative are not happy as of late.
I believe both bases are riled up. But I don't think this will be a "normal" midterm election. I think a lot will depend on the froth -- those who can go either way.
Also, and this is really interesting, look at the number of times folks get called "Marxist" or "DU troll" etc. on FR for voicing an unpopular opinion lately.
It's as if they've lost sight that the candidate with the most votes wins. A lot of these folks who get called names see themselves as conservatives, but are having doubts. That's fine. But to push them to the other side is kinda insane...