Crist Leads All Candidates In Governor Race, Poll Finds

TAMPA - Attorney General Charlie Crist may be running away with the Republican nomination in the governor's race, a new poll for The Tampa Tribune and WFLA, News Channel 8, shows.

Crist leads Chief Financial Officer Tom Gallagher 55 percent to 24 percent among likely Republican voters surveyed last week by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research.

The race for the Democratic nomination remains wide open, however,with a majority of the Democrats surveyed undecided on whether to support U.S. Rep. Jim Davis, of Tampa, or state Sen. Rod Smith, of Alachua. Of those who chose a candidate, Davis led 29 percent to 14 percent.

The poll, which questioned 400 likely primary voters of each party Wednesday through Friday, showsCrist leading both Democrats by at least 16 points. The poll has a margin of error of 5 percentage points.

Crist nearly doubled his lead over Gallagher from the previous Mason-Dixon survey taken in March. Since then, Crist aired a series of upbeat television commercials while Gallagher endured stories about a troubled divorce, a second chance given to him by a judge and acknowledging smoking marijuana.

"It will take a major change in the political landscape to keep Crist from winning at this point," Mason-Dixon pollster Brad Coker said.

The Crist campaign declined to answer questions about the poll. Spokeswoman Erin Isaac issued a release saying the poll was encouraging, but "the one that matters will be taken in just 42 days."

Crist's name is recognized by 89 percent of those surveyed and is viewed favorably by 48 percent, according to the poll. Only 10 percent of those surveyed had a negative view of Crist. Gallagher has equal name recognition but is viewed negatively by 19 percent of the respondents.

Gallagher's campaign minimized the huge gap in this poll, saying it doesn't match what it sees on the campaign trail.

"If you go and you talk to Republican primary voters as we do every day, … people are still forming their opinions about the candidates," spokesman Albert Martinez said. "We're confident that once we have all the info that they'll choose Tom Gallagher overwhelmingly on Election Day."

It's a different challenge for both Democrats, who continue to struggle getting their names and messages to sink in among huge chunks of their party's faithful.

Both campaigns acknowledge that Davis' lead is attributable in large part to his relatively high profile in the Tampa Bay area, Florida's largest media market, compared with Smith's smaller base around Gainesville.

The good news for the Davis campaign is that he continues to lead Smith by double digits, spokesman Josh Earnest said. But Davis has been stagnant since March's Mason-Dixon survey while Smith's support increased, said Smith spokesman David Kochman.

"I think we've closed the gap," Kochman said. Support for Smith increased from 9 percent in the survey in March to 14 percent.

Neither Democrat has aired television commercials and may not be able to afford tofor at least another week. Smith was in the news often during the legislative session and is credited with blocking a series of Republican education initiatives.

But taking on Crist could be a huge challenge, Coker said. Crist has run statewide several times and is poised to emerge from his primary "relatively unscathed."

The fact that a year of campaigning has created little measurable momentum could be a concern for the eventual nominee, he said.

"If they can't get the party faithful fired up," Coker said, "I don't know how they're going to generate enthusiasm in the fall."

Reporter Michael Fechter can be reached at (813) 259-7621 or mfechter@tampatrib.com.

Tom Gallagher's wife is the leader of a major Women's Prayer Network. Tom Gallagher is a devout Roman Catholic and his wife attended Notre Dame. Gallagher was in the Honor Guard at Arlington. Here's some more about Gallagher:
WHY TOM GALLAGHER?

Values

A husband and a father, Tom Gallagher is a lifelong Republican and a family man who is committed to defending the core values of our party and the mainstream values of Florida’s families.

Tom Gallagher is the only candidate for Governor who has served as a Cabinet Member, alongside Jeb Bush, for all eight years of the Bush Administration and who can be trusted to expand Jeb Bush’s legacy.

Tom Gallagher is the only candidate for Governor with a 100% pro-life voting record.

Tom Gallagher is the only candidate for Governor who was consistent in his support of a constitutional amendment defending traditional marriage.

Tom Gallagher is the only candidate for Governor who has not accepted significant sums of money from the Gambling Industry or liberal Trial Lawyers.

Leadership: Tom Gallagher is the only candidate for Governor who has been tested.

As Insurance Commissioner in the 1990’s, Gallagher was credited for coming to the rescue of South Floridians in the wake of Hurricane Andrew. The reforms he spearheaded then were cited as models for the nation in the wake of Florida’s recent storm seasons.

As Education Commissioner from 1999-2001 Gallagher implemented Governor Bush’s A+ Plan for Education which has been responsible for incredible gains in student learning. As Florida’s Treasurer and First Chief Financial Officer from 2001-present Gallagher has served as a trusted fiscal steward of Floridians’ tax dollars, streamlining Florida’s government, advocating policies to protect Florida’s consumers, and empowering small-businessmen and women to drive Florida’s economic engine.

Vision: Tom Gallagher is the only candidate for Governor who is communicating a clear and unambiguous vision for the Future of Florida based on conservative principles. Tom Gallagher is the only candidate for Governor to announce comprehensive policies to expand Florida’s economy, Safeguard Florida’s communities, and Defend Mainstream Florida Values.

In addition, Tom Gallagher will announce policies to improve educational opportunities for our children and improve the availability and affordability of quality healthcare for our seniors.

CRIST IS WITH THE DEMOCRATS ON CLASS SIZE AMENDMENT. Crist's sisters are school principals. He's always with one of his sisters and I spose they are guiding him on how to vote on education.

There are people who went to St. Pete High where Crist went. They aren't going to vote for him. I know people who are friends of Judge Greer and they aren't going to vote for Crist because they don't think he could handle a rough hurricane season. It's rare for someone in the Pinellas GOP to go against the hometown boy but they are breaking w/HQs.

There are 60% undecided voters, not 20 something per cent that the Miami Herald reported.

Crist is from Pinellas and Gallagher is from South Florida, Jeb country.

I voted for Crist for Fla AG and how does he get a pass on the corruption in the Dept. of Corrections? Crosby and Clark are terminated from the DOC and are being indicted. Jeb is handling that so Crist doesn't have to articulate a position on the corruption which it was widely reported is at all levels of the Dept. of Corrections. If Crist is the chief law enforcement officer of Florida, why is there so much corruption and the feds have to step in and enforce the law?

How's that? Crist has done a poor job of enforcing Florida's laws and that is what he was charged to do. He's always there after something bad happens and the feds and Jeb step in to cover for him. If a candidate is from Pinellas County, they are suspect right there. Pinellas has a machine and this machine does what it wants -forget about constituents. Crist is part of the Pinellas machine which rivals the Daley machine in Chicago. Seriesly. We found out the hard way.

Gallagher fixes things. Crist avoids them. Lucky for Crist, Jeb covers for him all the time. Jeb steps in frequently regarding law enforcement matters when Crist should be handling them from the get go.

Jeb hasn't chosen one or the other but Tom Gallagher is a true conservative and Crist is a RINO with no plans except that he makes promises to special interests. He thinks teachers should make $100K per year. IMO, that would require a state income tax to accomplish. (his sister's suggestion?) This last paragraph is probably the one that you should spread around.

50 posted on 07/06/2006 10:09:54 AM EDT by floriduh voter (www.conservative-spirit.org Tom Gallagher 4 Fla Guv www.tg2006.com.)
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