Posted on 07/25/2006 9:24:51 AM PDT by NormsRevenge
As Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger embarks from San Diego County on a campaign bus tour this morning, he will be greeted by good news in the form of a poll showing his re-election prospects brightening.
A new statewide Field Poll shows that 45 percent of the likely voters in the Nov. 7 election would vote for the Republican incumbent and 37 percent for Democratic state Treasurer Phil Angelides. Three percent would vote for minor-party candidates and the remaining 15 percent were undecided.
Although that does not represent a statistically significant change from May, when Schwarzenegger led Angelides 46 percent to 39 percent, other indicators are moving strongly in the governor's direction.
Favorable opinions about Schwarzenegger are back in the 50-percent range for the first time since early last year, and there has been a dramatic improvement in the way voters believe things are going in the state – always good news for an incumbent.
“The backdrop that the governor finds himself in is a much more favorable one now than right before the primary,” said Field Poll director Mark DiCamillo. “The news coming out of Sacramento is largely positive, and so voters are giving the governor a little more credit.”
An unanticipated windfall of tax receipts this spring allowed Schwarzenegger to boost spending for popular programs, particularly education, and the Legislature reached bipartisan agreement on a rare on-time budget.
For the first time since February 2005, more voters approve of the job Schwarzenegger is doing, 49 percent, than disapprove, 41 percent.
In addition, voters have a more optimistic view of the direction of the state than at any time in nearly two years.
Nearly half of the voters, 47 percent, said they believed the state was headed in the right direction, compared with 41 percent who said it was on the wrong track. That represents a sharp turnaround since May, when 57 percent said they thought California was on the wrong track and 32 percent believed it was going in the right direction.
Angelides appears to have gained little traction since defeating state Controller Steve Westly in the June Democratic primary after a bruising campaign.
Schwarzenegger enjoys 85 percent support among Republicans, despite grumbling by conservatives about his return to a bipartisan approach. Only 8 percent of Republicans said they would vote for Angelides.
Angelides has the support of 63 percent of his party – with 16 percent of Democrats saying they plan to vote for Schwarzenegger. Nearly 20 percent haven't made up their minds.
“There's a relatively high proportion of undecideds among Democrats,” DiCamillo said. “The Republicans are already there for the governor, and I guess you could expect them to remain there for the rest of the campaign.”
The Angelides camp maintains there is plenty of time until the election and that President Bush's unpopularity will drag down Schwarzenegger.
“It's summer. It's a wide open race,” said Bob Mulholland, senior adviser to the Angelides campaign. “A month ago, Schwarzenegger was at 44 percent. Schwarzenegger is still stuck in the mid 40s. And for an incumbent governor with 100 percent name ID and with Bush's troubles, this is the best year for the Democrats to defeat a one-term governor.”
Matthew Dowd, senior strategist for the Schwarzenegger campaign, predicted a close race, but said Angelides had a lot of work to do.
“He hasn't even shored up the Democratic base yet,” Dowd said. “That's a difficult spot to be in. He's got to motivate and convince his own base before he gets to reach across to independents and Republicans.”
There is a profound divide between Schwarzenegger and Angelides supporters about the issues they most care most about. With undecided voters more in line with Angelides' supporters on issues, it is a dynamic that could work to the Democrat's advantage.
Among Schwarzenegger voters, 56 percent said illegal immigration was the most important issue, with 40 percent citing taxes and 30 percent citing jobs and the economy.
Among Angelides voters, 57 percent cite education as the most important issue, followed by health care at 50 percent, and environmental protection and jobs and the economy at 42 percent.
It could come down to whether the election is driven by issues or personalities, DiCamillo said.
“It's a Democratic state. The issues could be on his side,” DiCamillo said of Angelides.
“Schwarzenegger is dominating the news. That is going to be a big problem for Angelides. How is he going to get control of the campaign agenda when the governor seems to be setting it?”
The governor is conducting a two-day bus trip of Southern California that begins with a town hall-style meeting scheduled for 9:30 a.m. today at the Harry Griffen Park amphitheater in La Mesa.
You and the rest of your party-above-principle GOP Big Tent Arnold cheerleaders are on a fool's errand. But you're too blinded by celebrity (and latent liberal tendencies) to catch on.
You really do need to come out of Arnold's amen corner once in awhile to see what's going on in the real world.
By the way, I have yet to find a single one of my Orange County conservative friends--all hard right rudder--who is planning on voting for the Austrian. They seem to be as fed up as I am.
"McClintock, who is more conservative than Schwarzenegger, backed the governor against conservative critics earlier this year and praised him repeatedly Thursday for his attention to infrastructure and the deficit. "
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1669857/posts
California Republicans: Arnold's No RINO! (Conservatives Support Him)
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1643459/posts
“The Democrats of Sacramento represent a tax-and-spend agenda that is not likely to change,” wrote the GOP’s “great right hope” of ‘02, Bill Simon Jr., in the latest American Spectator. “The governor could go a long way if he represented a stark contrast to that agenda. People like candidates with a vision, and Schwarzenegger has a reform-minded one.”
On the balance, Arnold’s been a great governor,” Scott Baugh, former GOP state legislator and now chairman of the Orange County Republican Party, told me. “His first act was cutting $4 billion from the budget. His second act, the repeal of the car tax, resulted in $12 billion back to the taxpayers. Worker’s compensation claims have dropped 40%. That sends a huge signal to business that California is serious about welcoming new jobs.”
Like other conservatives, Baugh hopes that a Schwarzenegger re-election this fall will give the state GOP what he calls “a bench,a conservative bench—Tom McClintock as lieutenant governor and Chuck Poochigian as attorney general.”
Nothing has changed.
By all means, though, keep firing those blanks.
Yes. Nothing has changed. You are still attacking Republicans, not attacking Democrats and are actively working to try to get CA turned over 100% to the Dems, by electing Angelides and all Dems.
"On the balance, Arnold’s been a great governor,” Scott Baugh, former GOP state legislator and now chairman of the Orange County Republican Party, told me."
As has been explained to you countless times, Baugh is a lapdog for the silk sock, country club New Majority RINOs, and is no conservative. In a purge engineered by the New Majority (assisted by Dufus Sundheim and his CRP pecksniffs), the real conservative--Tom Fuentes--was displaced and Baugh inserted in his place.
You should avoid posting this kind of utter nonsense to Orange County conservatives. Unlike the blindly faithful, we know better.
Want to try again?
Of course, I didn't say that, now did I?
No. Of course I didn't. Keep on spinning!
This is a blatantly false statement whose purpose is to twist perceptions to support your position. One does not have to be appealing or pleasing to win. Here's the truth:
Anyone running for statewide office in CA has to be PREFERABLE TO SOCIALISTS to get elected, which is not nearly so hard to achieve as is popularity in today's media climate. McClintock's near victory in the controller's race despite being outspent 5:1 clearly so attests.
They don't have to like us, they just have to fear the left more, which isn't THAT hard to do. Of course, if there isn't much of a contrast with the left, then you DO have to appeal to voters, which falls to a pandering contest Republicans seldom win.
All RINOs have to sell is lower taxes, or (more accurately) the appearance of lower taxes. Unfortunately, the concessions RINOs havt to offer in order to be "appealing" inevitably raise costs. Hence our current dilemma.
Interestingly, voters like the results of conservative governance as Reagan's and Deukmejian's landslides easily attest.
I'm an Independant. McClintock appeals to me immensely, Swartzennegger does not. Since the media doesn't inform
us of who else is running for governor I guess I won't be
voting for govenor. As of now all I know is that two liberals are running for that spot and I have an intense dislike for both of them.
Who's idea was it to push Swartzenegger into the special
election anyway?
Who's getting your vote for Gov?
Dilemma?
You consider having the choice between Arnold and Angelides a DILEMMA?!
You can't make up your mind, whether to vote for Angelides or Arnold?!
You want Arnold to take positions which will result in a sure defeat.
Most people aren't so stupid not to see that.
It's a tough decision. As you know, when it became apparent Arnold was going to win the recall (on false pretenses, I believe that had he been honest about what he was going to do the result might have been very different) I voted for McClintock and against the recall. I don't regret that choice.
Yes. The differences are that small.
By the way, OVER A MONTH AGO I challenged you to provide a list of the differences between Arnold and Agelides. So far, you have failed to produce one.
Let me inform you about Angelides, Arnold's opponent:
ANGELIDES:
Angelides calls himself a champion of "progressive values." As state treasurer, he has pushed public pension funds to dump tobacco stocks, invest in urban renewal projects and pressure corporations into cleaning up the environment. A close ally of labor, he also supports abortion rights, gay marriage, gun control and driver's licenses for illegal immigrants.
If he makes it into a general-election race, his call for increasing taxes could pose problems; Schwarzenegger has been steadfast in opposing higher taxes.
http://www.calcoast.org/news/cpr0060122.html
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Workers' comp could trip up governor's race (Lawyers support Angelides)
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1670497/posts
====
Angelides says he would sign gay marriage bill
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1662047/posts
Which postitions are those, FO?
McClintock is supporting Arnold.
I'd say the mutual support between these two is about an inch deep and maybe six inches wide, if that!
Evidently you've never heard Tom wax elequent on how diametrically opposed he is to most of the fiscal/budgetary and financial aspects of Arnold's devastating bondage approach and other "cart before the horse" approaches!!!
If you could hear him being interviewed with Lee Rodgers & Melanie Morgan (who got the Recall started with Mr. Steele) on KSFO in San Francisco you'd know better that to try to propound any love affair between these two.
You are truly and hopelessly ill-informed and many of us are getting very embarrassed for you. We will hold back on our mirth the day after elections when Tom will have absolutely creamed the Governor at the statewide polls!!! (Well, I'm not sure I'll be able to hold back for very long, however)(snort!)
Yes, you have.
It's a tough decision.
Not for those who trust Tom.
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