Posted on 07/25/2006 7:49:58 AM PDT by SmithL
Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has expanded his lead to eight points over Democratic Treasurer Phil Angelides, who is still struggling to shore up support and confidence among those in his own party, according to the latest Field Poll.
The poll, taken July 10-23, shows Schwarzenegger leading Angelides 45 to 37 percent among likely voters in California, with 3 percent favoring other candidates and 15 percent still undecided.
For the first time since February 2005, more voters approve of Schwarzenegger's job performance than disapprove -- and for the first time in nearly two years, more California voters believe the state is heading in the right direction than think it is on the wrong track, the poll showed.
Mark DiCamillo, director of the Field Poll, says the numbers reflect Angelides' continued struggle to recover from the effects of brutal mudslinging in the June Democratic primary against state Controller Steve Westly. The treasurer now faces a tough -- but not impossible -- task in the coming weeks if he is to stop Schwarzenegger's upward trend among voters, he said.
"What's surprising is the weakness of his support among Democrats, and the lack of confidence Democrats have that Angelides will win," DiCamillo said of the treasurer.
Only 49 percent of Angelides supporters polled said they believe the Democrat will win the 2006 gubernatorial election -- compared to 86 percent of Schwarzenegger voters who believe their candidate will win.
Less than two-thirds of Democrats considered likely voters in California support Angelides, compared to an overwhelming 85 percent of Republicans who are behind Schwarzenegger; independent voters favor Schwarzenegger 36 to 35 percent, with 1 in 5 still undecided, according to the poll.
Angelides "has to shore up his base," DiCamillo said. "You want to rally your side to have confidence that you're going to win. ...
(Excerpt) Read more at sfgate.com ...
(Go Israel, Go! Slap 'Em Down Hezbullies.)
http://www.kqed.org/weblog/capitalnotes/2006/07/if-theres-silver-lining.jsp
CAPITOL NOTES
July 25, 2006
If There's A Silver Lining...
in the new Field Poll out today for Phil Angelides, it may be this: given the depth of data showing renewed support for Arnold Schwarzenegger, the poll shows the Democratic challenger down by only 7 points.
Like I said, that may be the good news.
The new survey finds Governor Schwarzenegger with solid support not only among his fellow Republicans, but also from 16% of Democrats surveyed and 36% of independent voters.
In addition, Field finds that the governor is winning among female voters (43-41), a traditional key voting bloc for Democrats. And for the candidate who has reveled in the moniker of the Anti-Arnold, perhaps a case of 'be careful what you wish for': 65% of Angelides supporters say they're really only casting a vote against Schwarzenegger.
But perhaps most intriguing: 41% of voters who identify themselves as living in "union households" say they intend to vote for the governor, the man who most of those unions fought tooth and nail in 2005.
That being said, there are other stats in the Field Poll that seem to leave at least a few question marks for Team Arnold. First, the poll suggests he's tanking with Latino voters-- those surveyed say they prefer Angelides, 58% to 22%. And two issues the governor has spent a lot of time talking about-- taxes and the environment-- are lagging behind issues like education and health care. Who knows where energy will be on that list should the summer heat continue.
Education, however, is (just barely) no longer the #1 issue on the minds of those surveyed: now, it's illegal immigration. Given how divisive and complicated the issue is, it just may drive the next leg of the race in a way no candidate can currently predict.
Early reaction from the Angelides camp to the Field poll is that, in part, their man has been outspent in the early TV ad game by almost 15-to-1 and is still within striking range.
A contest between two liberals? Maybe. But When the state legislature wanted to move to legalize gay marriage it was Arnold that vetoed the bill...because the voters overwhelmingly rejected it. You're not going to get governor like Barry Goldwater in the state of California in 2006, but Arnold is no Phil Angelides.
Here is a link to the poll details:
http://field.com/fieldpollonline/subscribers/RLS2203.pdf
7/25/2006 #2203: Schwarzenegger leads Angelides by 8 points.
Both Governor's image and job rating have improved.
Big differences in how each candidate's supporters view the issues
It might help if Angelides had some IDEAS other than gay marriage, higher taxes, universal health care (paid for by even more and higher taxes, of course), and unrestrained illegal immigration. If the dems stopped worrying about "electibility" and started thinking up some IDEAS that might appeal to the American public, they'd have a much better chance.
Not entirely. Arnold vetoed gay marriage, drivers' licenses for illegal aliens, and has refused to raise taxes. All of these things would become reality if Angelides were elected.
Angelides is another Kerry, dull, lifeless, uninspiring and uninspired. He's Gray Davis without the personality. Stick a fork in him.
No, they reflect California voters finally getting a look at his ugly mug, having a "Ferris Bueller moment", and realizing they can't possibly vote for a guy like that! ;)
"Striking distance." Wait until the voters get to know Phil. He's going to drop like a rock. The Rasmussen poll was an outlier. Even people who don't like Arnold like him personally, whereas Angelides makes milque toast look edgy.
Angelides is Al Gore, John Kerry and Gray Davis rolled into one in terms of boring.
He'll be back!
http://www.pe.com/ap_news/California2/CA_Poll_Governors_Race_246698CA.shtml
Field Poll shows Schwarzenegger leading in governor's race
By DON THOMPSON
The Associated Press
SACRAMENTO
Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's image and job rating appear to be rebounding with voters, according to a new poll released Tuesday that shows the Republican governor leading Democratic state Treasurer Phil Angelides by 8 percentage points.
The Field Poll found 45 percent of likely voters surveyed favored Schwarzenegger, with 37 percent backing Angelides.
Nearly half the 731 likely voters surveyed approved of Schwarzenegger's job performance, the first time since February 2005 that more voters approved than disapproved of the job he is doing, the Field Poll found.
And for the first time since September 2004, more voters rated as positive the direction the state is heading than said it was negative. Schwarzenegger's star had faded last year after voters defeated all his initiatives in his November special election.
The campaign this year has been a referendum on Schwarzenegger, the Field Poll found, with two-thirds of Angelides backers saying their support is a vote against the governor rather than an endorsement of his Democratic challenger.
Some Republicans have criticized Schwarzenegger as too liberal, but the poll found he nonetheless enjoys support from 85 percent of those voters who called themselves Republicans. Sixty-three percent of Democrats said they support Angelides after a bruising primary fight with state Controller Steve Westly.
The telephone survey, conducted July 10-23, had a sampling error rate of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.
It showed 15 percent of voters were still undecided and 3 percent backed other candidates.
Another poll released Monday found the candidates about even. The Zogby poll found 44 percent support for Angelides and 42 percent for Schwarzenegger, but it was within the poll's sampling error margin of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. That survey was conducted from July 11-19.
Angelides' media consultant, Bill Carrick, noted that Schwarzenegger has spent more than 10 times as much on advertising as his rival since the June primary election $15 million for Schwarzenegger compared with $1.4 million for Angelides.
"Clearly, the Schwarzenegger campaign attempted an immediate post-primary knockout punch of Angelides," Carrick said. "They swung and missed."
Support under 50 percent is bad news for an incumbent governor, and Angelides' numbers will likely rise among Democrats and other voters as they learn more about him, Carrick said.
Katie Levinson, Schwarzenegger's communications director, said voters "are rejecting Phil Angelides' negativity and pessimism and his call for a $10 billion tax increase. ... In contrast, we continue to see Californians respond positively to the governor's positive vision for California."
Published: Tuesday, July 25, 2006 06:30 PDT
Suggest some additional research before .. removing all doubt
On the bright side. One out of three correct is still better than the average, unprepared amateur who jumps on a thread with the adults and quickly makes a fool out of themselves.
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