Corker ahead of Republican primary opponents (TN GOP Primary)

Republican U.S. Senate candidate Bob Corker holds a 16-point lead over his Aug. 3 primary election opponents, according to a poll conducted last week for the Chattanooga Times Free Press.

"Corker looks to be in pretty good shape," said Brad Coker, managing director of Washington, D.C.-based Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. "I would clearly put him in there as the favorite and the front-runner at this point."

Thirty-nine percent of likely Republican primary voters surveyed said they would vote for Mr. Corker, compared to 23 percent for Ed Bryant and 22 percent for Van Hilleary. One percent of respondents said they would vote for Tate Harrison, of Dayton, Tenn., and 15 percent were undecided.

Pollsters surveyed 625 registered likely voters statewide from Monday through Wednesday. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent. For questions specific to the Republican primary, 400 likely Republican voters were surveyed. That portion of the survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percent.

This election is for the seat held by Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, R-Tenn., who is not running for re-election to a third six-year term. Early voting for the primary election runs through Saturday. The general election is Nov. 7.

Corker campaign manager Ben Mitchell said the poll numbers "show that our focus on communicating Bob Corker's positive, conservative message, and the hard work of our volunteers and supporters throughout the state, is really producing positive results."

Bryant campaign spokesman Andrew Shulman said ?the conservative momentum" is behind Mr. Bryant. "This new poll shows that conservative Tennessee Republicans are uniting behind Ed," he said.

Hilleary campaign manager Jennifer Coxe called the results "great news" for her candidate.

"At the time of the poll, our TV (advertising) had not yet begun to take effect, and we're still tied for second place in what's shaping up to be a very competitive race, which is why Bob Corker's had to dump in millions of his own dollars to cover up his record of raising taxes (and) supporting abortion," she said.

The Bryant and Hilleary campaigns have criticized Mr. Corker for previously saying abortion was not a government issue and for pushing through a property tax increase as Chattanooga mayor.

The Times Free Press survey indicates Mr. Corker, with a 16-point lead, so far has deflected these charges. The survey shows only 27 percent of respondents said a candidate's position on abortion would be the most influential issue in their voting decision. Only 17 percent said a candidate's record on voting for tax increases will be the most influential issue.

Mr. Corker has said his previous abortion stance was "wrong" and that he now opposes abortion rights except in cases of rape, incest or to save the life of the mother. More than a third of likely Republican voters said that position "comes closest" to their own view on abortion.

Mr. Corker has said the property tax increase was needed to address a budget shortfall the previous administration left him.

Mr. Bryant and Mr. Hilleary also have challenged Mr. Corker's conservative credentials. The Times Free Press survey shows 36 percent of Republican respondents said "how conservative a candidate is" will be the issue that most influences their voting decision.

In head-to-head match-ups with U.S. Rep. Harold Ford Jr., the presumptive Democratic nominee in the Senate race, Mr. Corker fares better than either Mr. Bryant or Mr. Hilleary, both former congressmen. Mr. Corker has a 49 percent to 36 percent advantage over Rep. Ford, with 15 percent of respondents undecided. In the head-to head match-up, the poll shows Mr. Corker has support from 13 percent of Democratic respondents and 47 percent of independents, compared to 29 percent independent support for Rep. Ford.

Mr. Bryant and Mr. Hilleary do not receive similar support against Mr. Ford. Mr. Bryant has a 43 percent to 40 percent edge over Rep. Ford, with 17 percent undecided, while Mr. Hilleary and Rep. Ford are tied at 41 percent each, with 18 percent undecided, according to the poll.

The poll "confirms what a lot of Republicans either think or fear, which is that Corker is the only Republican who can beat Ford in the fall," said University of Virginia political science professor Larry Sabato.

Michael Powell, senior adviser to the Ford campaign, said it is no surprise Mr. Corker is leading the head-to-head match-up because he has outspent his GOP primary opponents on television.

"If Corker's the nominee, this race will change dramatically," Mr. Powell said. "It will be Harold Ford's agenda for change versus Bob Corker's agenda of more of the same."

Mr. Mitchell, with the Corker campaign, said the head-to-head numbers indicate "Tennesseans aren't interested in keeping Congressman Ford in Washington, and instead overwhelmingly prefer Bob Corker and his record of real conservative change."

Mr. Shulman said the Bryant campaign's internal poll numbers, which he declined to provide, show Mr. Bryant is the best candidate to defeat Rep. Ford. He said Mr. Bryant?s West Tennessee base helps him against the Memphis congressman, and also said Mr. Bryant has brought together social and economic conservatives.

The Mason-Dixon poll showed 40 percent of voters in West Tennessee would support Mr. Corker to Rep. Ford's 42 percent, while 44 percent of West Tennessee voters would support Mr. Bryant to Rep. Ford's 40 percent,

Mr. Shulman said Mr. Corker's record on issues like taxes and abortion "will make him mincemeat for Harold Ford Jr. in November."

Ms. Coxe, with the Hilleary campaign, said the head-to-head numbers show the impact of Mr. Corker's heavy television advertising.

"Once Van Hilleary is advertising at the levels of Bob Corker in a general election, he, too, would soundly beat Harold Ford," she said.

Poll respondent Katherine Iles, 62, of Elizabethton, Tenn., is a Republican who said she likely will vote for Mr. Corker.

"Corker's a businessman. I see what he did in Chattanooga,? she said. ?He?s got a good handle on the feelings of people in Tennessee and will take that into the U.S. Senate.?

Poll respondent Ellen Gammon, 63, of Memphis, said she would vote for any of the Republican candidates over Rep. Ford. She said the congressman from Memphis "talks out of both sides of his mouth."

Dorothy Graves, 52, a respondent from Speedwell, Tenn., said she is a Democrat who probably will vote for Rep. Ford in November. She said the Democratic Party has "always been more for the middle class, working-class people."

Mr. Corker has the highest favorable name recognition among poll respondents statewide, with 37 percent, followed by Rep. Ford at 35 percent, Mr. Bryant at 25 percent and Mr. Hilleary at 23 percent.

Among the 400 likely Republican primary voters surveyed, 17 percent did not recognize Mr. Bryant?s name, even though he previously ran a statewide campaign. He ran for the U.S. Senate in 2002, losing to Sen. Lamar Alexander in the GOP primary election.

Eight percent of likely Republican primary voters did not recognize Mr. Hilleary?s name, even though he also ran a recent statewide race. He lost to current Gov. Phil Bredesen in the 2002 gubernatorial race.

The poll also found that Rep. Ford had the highest unfavorable numbers of the four major U.S. Senate candidates, with 35 percent favorable versus 27 percent unfavorable.

Dr. Sabato said Rep. Ford's unfavorable numbers are high, especially considering there have been no negative ads against him so far in the campaign.

"Because the Ford name is controversial in Tennessee, he starts out with a negative that is nipping on the heels of his positive," he said.

Rep. Ford's uncle, former state Sen. John Ford, D-Memphis, is scheduled to go on trial on federal corruption charges in October.

Asked about Rep. Ford's unfavorable numbers, Mr. Powell said he does not "place too much value" in the poll figures.

Many posters here think Mason-Dixon is the best state pollster out there. If so, this is pretty bad news I would think. I understand Bryant is more conservative.

Yeah, Mason-Dixon is good, especially in Tennesee.

Bryant basically bought this primary saturating the air waves for several months. Bryant and Hilleary held back their ads until the past few weeks and it's too late.

Bryant basically bought this primary saturating the air waves for several months.

That should be Corker.

Van Hilleary is more conservative than Corker. Thing is, I can't turn on talk radio here in Memphis without hearing a Corker ad. I haven't heard the first ad for Bryant or Van Hileary or even seen a sign.

In other words, Corker's money and the other two's complete lack of organization has won him the nomination.

I've heard Bryant ads... mostly during Rush on AM 600 in Memphis. But it appears the nightmare scenario is coming about. Hilleary and Bryant splitting the conservative vote. Corker getting the country club Republican vote and that of those that have heard his message. If Corker wins, we end up faced with a Democrat and a Republican that are near mirror images of one another. One simply has an R by his name and says he is conservative. (The other has a D and says he is a moderate.) Both are liberal.

You may be right about Corker, but I would vote for the devil himself before I would vote for a Ford!!!!!!!!

You may be right. Thing is that I can't tune into Rush during my workday, so I'll hear Corker ads on Fleming (even though I can'tlisten to his voice long) or Savage or on the weekends.

I still haven't seen a Van Hilleary or Bryant poster around Memphis, though I did in Knoxville. To be fair, this race will be won in east and central Tennessee, but visibility is vital.

I'll be voting Bryant, though I have a feeling that Corker is going to win. (Corker??? Reminds me of sausages or something.)

Neither Ed Bryant or Van Hillary have done a good job of getting around the state making themselves heard. They are counting on Mike Fleming, Steve Gill, Hallerin Hill, and Phil Valentine to be their campaign mouthpieces. While Corker has spent the cash, the other two have done little to help their cause. It is is truly disappointing and it is no one else's fault but their own.

Corker has another advantage. He makes a statement and the media picks it up. (Same with Ford.) I am on Bryant's daily e-mail list. If it were not for his detailing where he is each day, you would never know he was campaigning.

I've heard more Bryant ads than Ford. In a normal race, Bryant would be leading. But Corker has put almost two million of his own into his campaign. He is basically buying the seat.

Polls I have seen show Corker ahead still, but Corker and Hilleary are in steep declines and Bryant is climbing rapidly. Whether it is enough, I don't know. But in 2000 M/D had Gore neck and neck or ahead of Bush just days prior to the election. A blot on their not so bad track record that year.

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.