Thanks for the ping.
Without going into detail, Stratfor paints a gloomy picture, similar to the one they painted two weeks into OEF.
I think my primary disagreement comes from the claim that reducing Hezbollah's bunkers need be costly. Cordesman has indicated some developments which can mitigate a good part of the associated costs. Al Qaeda thought Tora Bora was safe, too.
I won't rule out a continuous thrust into the Bekaa, but I'm not counting on it either. My guess will be that command elements will confer with political leadership after the area south of the Litani is secured and assess the situation from that view.
The wildcards are of course, Syria and Iran. Key points in their decision making process will occur when general awareness permeates leadership circles that a ground offensive has begun, when Hezbollah is forced out of S. Lebanon, if and when an offensive into the Bekaa begins, and if and when Hezbollah is defeated in the Bekaa. Iran in particular has explicitly stated that they will attack Israeli and US interests should Hezbollah face defeat, and the coming events will judge the credibility of those claims.
All along they have been the wildcards.
Rice: Q: Lebanon has made little progress enforcing 1559..A: help to create the framework to end violence, deploy Lebanon forces southward "with international assistance"...
I would like your opinion on whether you think there is a "cause/effect" between what is happening in Israel and Lebanon and the ratcheting up in Sunni v. Shi'ite atrocities in Iraq right now?
I know the S v. S stuff in Iraq started BEFORE Lebanon kidnapped the Israeli soldiers...but, we all speculated at that time it might be to distract from Iran.
I am not saying I think this...but, I am just wondering what kind of "ties" there might be.
i think you are right, Israel is going to the Litani create a buffer zone and then put the ball in Hizbullah/Syria/Iran's court. Depending on their reaction will depend on whether Israel moves into the Bekka, which will create a whole new set of scenarios. I still don't see how ignoring the threat that comes from the Bekka serves Israeli interests in the long term. If you leave the Bekka alone you are going to leave one big headache for whatever beefed up international force that moves in later