ANALYSIS: Bush's vision, and the region, appear to be near collapse

San Francisco Chronicle ^ | 7/19/6 | Marc Sandalow

[SmithL]

Washington -- The Bush administration's notion that toppling Saddam Hussein would stabilize a turbulent region is among the casualties of this week's Middle East carnage.

The death toll in Lebanon and Israel, which exceeds 250 in the past week, is a grim reminder that the sectarian violence in Baghdad 500 miles to the east is but one of many hotspots in a region that has been plagued by violence for more than 1,000 years.

The oft-stated hope that a new Iraqi government would swiftly transform the region's fractured politics has been realized with unintended consequences: an emboldened Iran; the victory of Hamas in Palestinian elections; and Syria's departure from Lebanon. The familiar strain has been hatred between the Arabs and Israelis and a widely held assumption that the situation will grow worse before it improves.

"Unless and until you solve the Arab-Israel conflict, you are going to have instability in the region,'' said Steven Cook, a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York.

Some scholars view the situation from the opposite direction. Coit Blacker, director of Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford, believes that "there is no answer to the Arab-Israel conflict until the nature of politics within the region changes substantially.''

Yet there is wide agreement that more than three years after attacking Iraq, the administration's mission to build a democracy that would foster stability -- the most often cited reason to go to war after ridding Hussein of his weapons of mass destruction -- is a long way from being accomplished.

"Partly as a result of what's happening in Iraq, the whole region seems to be separating along sectarian lines,'' said Michael Sterner, former U.S. ambassador to the United Arab Emirates and an assistant secretary of state under President Jimmy Carter.

[finnman69]

"Unless and until you solve the Arab-Israel conflict, you are going to have instability in the region,"

Agreed, Iran and Syria need to go as they are the prime funders and enablers of the current fighting.

[Patrick1]

Don't mind this guy. He wrote the same article after the Articles of Confederation fell apart.

[msnimje]

Are they Democrats first and then become nearsighted or do people with myopia become Democrats?

[DoughtyOne]

What passes for logic on the left, passes for extreme ignorance around my household.

[cloud8]

> This is Bush's vision. Strong Israel, Annihilation of Hezbubba, Democratic Iraq, Iraq marginalized and Al-Queerda on the run ...........

That's right. Hezbo and the rest of the Mohammedan savages need to be drawn out to into a fight and be annihilated. They are not going to go away, no matter how many billions the Carter-clinton morons bribe them in the hopes that they'll play nice.

[Marylander]

Bush's vision, and the region, appear to be near collapse

Too bad, Sandalow, wishing does not make it so.

[Louis Foxwell]

I do not believe that there was a significant number of citizens who believed that Hitler's blitzkreig against London was caused by England's unwillingness to retreat from Europe. That is precisely the thinking of these moral midgets.
It is astounding that a preponderance of citizens could so oppose conservatism that they are perfectly willing to allow nuclear holocast to rain down on our heads. Their insanity is proof that they are the enemy we must overcome here on our soil.
Whether it is environmental law, anti-God judges, sexual deviance or the Democratic party the enemy that seeks our destruction is liberalism in all its putrid manifestations.
The day is fast approaching when the madmen of Iran and the madmen of the American left will hear the bell tolling for them and their days of authority will end.

[ModelBreaker]

The Bush administration's notion that toppling Saddam Hussein would stabilize a turbulent region

I don't think that was the point of Iraq. The middle east has been plenty stable in a pernicious and dangerous way. The point of Iraq was to profoundly destabilize the status quo.

[Old Professer]

Anal Ysis; the Ysis is located at the base of the neck...

[DoughtyOne]

I would like to think that you are right. From what I have seen from the right over the last decade, I have grave concerns that the important principles there are also erroding.

There are bight spots to be sure, but this isn't the conservatism of our fathers.

[My2Cents]

many hotspots in a region that has been plagued by violence for more than 1,000 years.

Obviously, this is *Bush's Fault.* The left, uniformally, does not believe that there is anything worth sacrificing for, worth dying for. What the author of this pathetic piece of tripe fails to acknowledge is that those dying in Lebanon are mostly bad guys.

[Gantz]

"The dems have put all their eggs in the losing basket."

Yes. Fortunately for the spineless GOP, God has blessed us with some very stupid adversaries.

[william clark]

Well, the usual SF Bush bigotry aside, I fear that the guy's overall point may be correct.

As supportive as I've been of the war in Iraq, the past week's developments throw a very large complication into the mix. It's pretty much a given that even the "friendly" Iraqis that we've been working with are Islamic-indoctrinated enough to hate Israel. So they already may be feeling torn with regard to their cooperation with us.

If this thing escalates to the point where Syria and/or Iran is attacked, and we have to provide more support to Israel, we may have to pretty much just write off an Iraqi populace that completely turns against us, get the hell out, and let them figure out what to do post-Saddam.