ANALYSIS: Bush's vision, and the region, appear to be near collapse

San Francisco Chronicle ^ | 7/19/6 | Marc Sandalow

[SmithL]

Washington -- The Bush administration's notion that toppling Saddam Hussein would stabilize a turbulent region is among the casualties of this week's Middle East carnage.

The death toll in Lebanon and Israel, which exceeds 250 in the past week, is a grim reminder that the sectarian violence in Baghdad 500 miles to the east is but one of many hotspots in a region that has been plagued by violence for more than 1,000 years.

The oft-stated hope that a new Iraqi government would swiftly transform the region's fractured politics has been realized with unintended consequences: an emboldened Iran; the victory of Hamas in Palestinian elections; and Syria's departure from Lebanon. The familiar strain has been hatred between the Arabs and Israelis and a widely held assumption that the situation will grow worse before it improves.

"Unless and until you solve the Arab-Israel conflict, you are going to have instability in the region,'' said Steven Cook, a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York.

Some scholars view the situation from the opposite direction. Coit Blacker, director of Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford, believes that "there is no answer to the Arab-Israel conflict until the nature of politics within the region changes substantially.''

Yet there is wide agreement that more than three years after attacking Iraq, the administration's mission to build a democracy that would foster stability -- the most often cited reason to go to war after ridding Hussein of his weapons of mass destruction -- is a long way from being accomplished.

"Partly as a result of what's happening in Iraq, the whole region seems to be separating along sectarian lines,'' said Michael Sterner, former U.S. ambassador to the United Arab Emirates and an assistant secretary of state under President Jimmy Carter.

[js1138]

The dems have put all their eggs in the losing basket.

[yobid]

Vomit........ack!

[dirtboy]

The death toll in Lebanon and Israel, which exceeds 250 in the past week, is a grim reminder that the sectarian violence in Baghdad 500 miles to the east is but one of many hotspots in a region that has been plagued by violence for more than 1,000 years.

But this guy thinks Bush should have it all solved in four years, eh?

And I guess he fails to notice how almost all the Arab states have told the Palis and Hizbollah to go pound sand - that alone is a sea change in Middle East politics.

[SmithL]

The fact that the SFComicle and the Carter Administration are squawking tells me that this is going exactly right.

[Red Badger]

This is Bush's vision. Strong Israel, Annihilation of Hezbubba, Democratic Iraq, Iraq marginalized and Al-Queerda on the run ...........

[pissant]

Dude this is a triple barf alert. A 7 year old special ed kid could write a more coherent and convincing analysis.

[EQAndyBuzz]

I sometimes wonder if Saddam was the only one that realized the Shiites were maniacs and killing them scared the beejesus out of Iran.

[petitfour]

I think they don't understand Bush's vision. Freedom and democracy cannot coexist with extremists who believe everyone should do things their way or DIE.

[L98Fiero]

"And I guess he fails to notice how almost all the Arab states have told the Palis and Hizbollah to go pound sand - that alone is a sea change in Middle East politics."

If our media were impartial, that whould be the headline but it isn't even in the story.

[roses of sharon]

And the Dems heads will soon be in baskets if they continue to collude with the enemy, their propaganda for the Islamic Cults will kill all of us.

[telebob]

"The oft-stated hope that a new Iraqi government would swiftly transform the region's fractured politics..."

Where was this oft-stated except as some lefty straw man? I don't recall Bush ever saying change would be rapid. In fact, I recall him saying change would take quite a long time so we best be getting to it now.

[SamAdams76]

At least the Israelis don't have to worry about Iraqi Scuds this time around. All the easier for them to take out the local trash.

[Peach]

Ahem. Not to disturb the little reporters tiny brain, but aren't we lucky that Saddam is out of power and can't launch scuds at Israel like he did in '91? Not that facts matter to most reporters or anything.

[kingu]

The death toll in Lebanon and Israel, which exceeds 250 in the past week, is a grim reminder that the sectarian violence in Baghdad 500 miles to the east is but one of many hotspots in a region that has been plagued by violence for more than 1,000 years.

Again, a liberal media source chooses to use only the numbers of dead in Lebanon and completely ignore the death toll in Israel, nor do they count the death toll from attacks prior to Israel's retribution against terrorists.

As to the meat of the article, that the region is less stable due to the invasion of Iraq, or as stable as it once was, Israel is invading another country to go after terrorists, and Egypt is fighting terrorists, Saudi Arabia is fighting terrorists, Jordan is fighting terrorists, and yes, even Syria is fighting terrorists. The cheerleaders in the MSM haven't gotten their much desired regional conflict.

It just chokes them that on a geopolitic scale, the region is far more stable than ever before.

[tigtog]

The fact that Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Egypt want Hezbollah crushed didn't seem to make it into this analysis. Gee, maybe the SF Chronicle should finance a trip by Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton to broker a peace with Hezbollah, Syria and Iran. As I remember those two dimwits vision of the mideast came out just as they expected it to. Save me from SF morons.

[bybybill]

A little help, is there an election coming up soon?

[2 Kool 2 Be 4-Gotten]

Ah the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies has weighed in on the subject. No further discussion needed.

[crosslink]

Some scholars view the situation from the opposite direction. Coit Blacker, director of Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford, believes that "there is no answer to the Arab-Israel conflict until the nature of politics within the region changes substantially.''

Yes we need to kill all terrorists and the "nature of politics will change".

Dumb ass

[conservative in nyc]

I guess Marc Sandalow doesn't understand the concept of an Axis of Evil. Iran is part of it. And Hezbollah is their baby.