Posted on 07/19/2006 11:10:24 AM PDT by Indianblock
Guest journalist Ahmed Rashid examines why problems are mounting for Pakistan's President Pervez Musharraf at home and abroad.
President Musharraf is faces a tough stand-off with neighbours India and Afghanistan and the international community, who are all urging him to do more to curb Islamic extremists operating in his country.
This comes at a time when he is facing the worst domestic political and economic crises since he came to power in 1999.
The train bombings in Mumbai on 11 July which left 182 people dead have led to a dramatic sea change in Indo-Pakistan relations, after Prime Minister Manmohan Singh accused Pakistan of supporting "terrorist modules" bent on harming Indian democracy.
Such accusations from India have been rare since both countries set out on a path to peace.
Afghanistan accuses Pakistan of allowing the Taleban sanctuary and support in their bid to drive out Western forces from Afghanistan and overthrow the government of President Hamid Karzai.
On both counts Pakistan has rejected the accusations.
But there is little doubt that Gen Musharraf and the military are facing unprecedented global criticism for their apparent reluctance to wrap up extremist groups who still operate with impunity and brazen openness in Pakistan.
However, at the same time, al-Qaeda and their Pakistani and Afghan allies have long expressed a desire to see the end of India-Pakistan rapprochement and an end to Gen Musharraf, whom Ayman al Zawahri, the number two al-Qaeda leader, credits as being the organisation's worst enemy in the region.
Moreover, Pakistan has lost more than 800 soldiers battling militants in the tribal belt bordering Afghanistan.
So where does the truth lie?
Tragic consequences
After suffering heavy losses in southern Afghanistan in recent weeks, US and Nato military commanders in Kabul say they have complained harshly and bitterly to their respective governments about the Taleban's ability to maintain bases for command and control, logistics and recruitment in Pakistan's Balochistan province.
The normally reticent UN has also publicly notched up pressure on Pakistan.
These complaints have resulted in a visit by US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice to Islamabad while senior ministers from European Nato countries are due to make their own complaints.
India has accused Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) of having a hand in the Mumbai train bombings.
Even though the LeT has been declared a terrorist organisation by the UN, the US, Britain and Pakistan, a reformed LeT with a new name was rehabilitated by the military after the earthquake in Kashmir last year, as it acted as a relief organisation.
There is certainly anger amongst many Pakistanis at the way the military has allowed some extremist groups a continued platform for their views.
Despite strong protests by civic groups and Shia leaders, the militant Sunni extremist group Sipah-e-Sahaba was rehabilitated by the regime earlier this year and allowed to hold a huge rally in Islamabad just a mile away from the diplomatic quarter.
The results have been tragic.
On 14 July the country's leading Shia politician and scholar Allama Hasan Turabi was killed by a suicide bomber at his home in Karachi.
The fear of sectarian violence has gripped the country.
In Balochistan the army has depended on the Pashtun-based Jamiat-e-Ulema Islam (JUI) for political support.
The JUI has supported the Taleban since its inception in 1994. Gen Musharraf is hoping to cause a split in the alliance of Islamic parties by weaning away the JUI and enlisting it for his second bid for the presidency. Going against the Taleban now would mean alienating the JUI.
And that is where the contradiction between the international community and the Pakistan military and Gen Musharraf emerges.
Much of what they do is connected with domestic politics - ensuring Gen Musharraf's political survival, retaining the military as the unquestioned power in the country at the expense of political parties and civil society and making sure that the military's national agenda is the only agenda.
Gen Musharraf and the military hierarchy are neither extremist nor remotely fundamentalist.
But they have every intention of using the fundamentalists as political allies against national political parties who question the need for military rule. (The fundamentalists may question Musharraf's personal secular credentials, but they are not opposed to military rule.)
Anomaly
Where the military is not threatened politically, such as the presence of al-Qaeda and other groups in Waziristan and where US pressure is inescapable, the military acts and sends in the troops.
It is an anomaly to many that the army has lost 800 troops battling al-Qaeda in Waziristan, but not a single soldier battling the Taleban in Balochistan.
The present crisis comes at a time when Gen Musharraf's popularity has hit an all-time low as major scandals related to the stock market, privatisation and sugar shortages rock the country and people suffer from high inflation.
Moreover, after seven years people are just tired of military rule, which according to some critics has resulted in a pretence parliament and a puppet government, with the generals calling the shots behind the scene.
In the midst of his waning popularity and growing international criticism, Gen Musharraf is trying to marshal all the political forces to support his re-election bid as president next year - while holding on to the post of army chief.
He then wants to hold an election in which the army will once again forge an alliance between the pro-army faction of the Pakistan Muslim League and some Islamic parties such as the JUI.
It is Gen Musharraf's pressing political agenda for which time and credibility is in short supply that pushes his continued love affair with the fundamentalists, even though the same fundamentalists have shown little real love for the people or the military's national agenda.
Pakistan - just another muslim country (read my tag line).
Any news on India's reaction to the recent bombings?
Pakistan has no more right to exist than does Israel; in fact, even less. But, no one would want them. India would not want them back. Iran might take them if they can get the territory too.
ping
I only hope the airforce and military exercises between India-US and India-Israel have resulted in developing maneuvers to take down Pak's nuke facilities when musshy is killed or taken down.
I read sometime ago, that InAF and IsAF have developed such a plan and have conducted practice drills. not sure where they stand now.
still thinking what to do.
He is caught between a rock and a hard place. I give him credit for sticking his neck out there to begin taking the necessary steps to ridding his country of Islamic militants. He has had several assasination attempts on his life for taking this stand. We as the United States are fortunate to have Musharref around right now.
He needs to make bigger and more public statement that he stands with India as a peace partner, especially in light of the recent terrorist train atrocity. India and the West should help his re-election bid at all costs. Having a pro-islamic militant ruler with nuclear ballistic capabilities is something we never want to see...
Don't count on it. If a shooting war starts up now it will likely involve nukes flying in both directions. If somebody is worried about being caught in a detonation it might be well to move away from a population center or a major military facility. Twenty detonations inside India would disrupt commerce, especially food and medicine, and probably for several years. It is not likely that any amount of foreign aid could arrive in sufficient quantity and quickly enough to stave off disaster. The leaders of both countries need to be very careful now.
Musharraf is one of the few statesmen in the world. He is in a tough position and he is not getting any younger.
yes..he is only a statesman
On the other hand, 20 detonations inside of Pakistan means the end of Pakistan.
India' s population: = 1,000,000,000 (one billion)
Pakistan's population = 162,500,000
Musharraf will adress the nation thursday: Topics the crisis of Stock Exchange, steps taken by government against eradication of poverty, sugar and power crisis.
According to sources president will also highlight about upcoming election, economic development and political situation in the country especially critical situation of Fata and Balochistan.
http://www.onlinenews.com.pk/details.php?id=100177
Speaking of tag lines, if there are any of those pesky mosques getting in the way, I think there's a solution...
Pervez Musharraf Faces Challenges
By Aida Akl
http://www.voanews.com/english/Musharraf2006-07-18-voa65.cfm
Pervez Musharraf Faces Challenges
By Aida Akl
http://www.voanews.com/english/Musharraf2006-07-18-voa65.cfm
I have a friend from Pakistan. He is a "non-practicing" muslim - to say the least.
Jeez does he hate India and Indians though.
"Musharraf is one of the few statesmen in the world. "
Yeah. Right. Give him the Nobel Piss Prize. /sarc
Statesman my @ss.
your friend is welcome to hate us. He will hate us more when we bomb his country.
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