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For Democrats, Wave Is Building
Washington Post ^ | 7/16/06 | Thomas E. Mann

Posted on 07/16/2006 12:39:05 PM PDT by Coop

There's probably no way congressional Republicans can lose this fall, no matter how unpopular President Bush is or how unhappy the voters are with the war in Iraq. That's the prevailing view in Washington today.

But it's wrong.

If history is any guide, we're heading into a major political storm. And that means we could see a national tide in November that will sweep the Democrats back into the majority.

Virtually every public opinion measure points to a Category 4 or 5 hurricane gathering...

But many analysts have noted the absence of strategic behavior on the part of the Democrats, who have failed to recruit good candidates and have allowed the Republicans to maintain a fundraising advantage...

Over the past year, the Cook Political Report has increased the number of Republican seats it considers highly vulnerable from two to 10, and those it considers somewhat vulnerable from 16 to 25. Eighteen others are potentially vulnerable. That's a total of 53 GOP seats at risk, double the number of a year ago. During the same period, the number of competitive Democratic seats declined from 14 to 10;, while the total number of Democratic seats at risk remained at 21...

(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...


TOPICS: Front Page News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2006; democrat; demorats; gop; house; majority; midterm; midterms; murtha; murthadeployedasylum; overoptimistic; pipedream; senate; trainwreck
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To: Coop
That is what I don't get though. When we use a primary contest to purify the party, then we are getting rid of the RINOs. When they attempt to get rid of someone, they are throwing him under the bus.
101 posted on 07/16/2006 2:41:14 PM PDT by Prodn2000
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To: Perdogg

I think you're right! ;-)


102 posted on 07/16/2006 2:44:38 PM PDT by top 2 toe red (To the enemy in Iraq..."Don't bet on American politics forcing my hand!" President Bush)
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To: Prodn2000
Fine. I don't care about your semantics.

Al Qaeda, U.S. Government, it's all the same thing, right?

103 posted on 07/16/2006 2:46:47 PM PDT by Coop (No, there are no @!%$&#*! polls on Irey vs. Murtha!)
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To: Jameison

I share your memory...and don't forget that drunk-off-her-a$$-Susan-ugly-face on with Brit declaring she KNEW, she HAD confirmation John Kerry had won the election! Idiots!


104 posted on 07/16/2006 2:49:28 PM PDT by top 2 toe red (To the enemy in Iraq..."Don't bet on American politics forcing my hand!" President Bush)
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To: jasoncann

Yep!


105 posted on 07/16/2006 2:50:36 PM PDT by top 2 toe red (To the enemy in Iraq..."Don't bet on American politics forcing my hand!" President Bush)
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To: John Jorsett

Barbara Boxer is supporting Lieberman?!? I am shocked!


106 posted on 07/16/2006 2:53:59 PM PDT by top 2 toe red (To the enemy in Iraq..."Don't bet on American politics forcing my hand!" President Bush)
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To: misterrob

That glass of yours...half empty, eh?


107 posted on 07/16/2006 2:56:40 PM PDT by top 2 toe red (To the enemy in Iraq..."Don't bet on American politics forcing my hand!" President Bush)
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To: Perdogg
Frankly I believe security trumps everything. Without a safe homeland nothing else matters and we are living in the most dangerous times in the nations history.

It is improbable that Americans will turn over the country's security to a Party they do not have confidence in on this issue.
108 posted on 07/16/2006 2:58:34 PM PDT by Eagles Talon IV
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To: cmsgop

"There will be No Rat Tsunami"

There will be a Tsunami of far leftist screamers, but it is ho hum for the rest of them. The economy is ok if not great. Israel is taking care of business in the middle east so we don't have to for a while. Immigration issues work in our favor. I think we will be fine despite our rino leadership.


109 posted on 07/16/2006 3:02:59 PM PDT by FastCoyote
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To: top 2 toe red
"and don't forget that drunk-off-her-a$$-Susan-ugly-face on with Brit declaring she KNEW, she HAD confirmation John Kerry had won the election! Idiots!"

LOL!
Poor Susan Estridge:

"Fox had Susan Estridge on Tuesday night. This was after 50% or so of the Ohio vote was in and Bush was up by 130K. In her inimitable way, she described how the Dems had the vote figured in such a way as to have Kerry winning the state, on the strength of high turnout in Cleveland and other urban districts.
It was all plausible enough to have Britt Hume and the rest of the talking heads chewing over the possibility of waiting for the upper mid-west for a decision in this election.

It appears that what the Democrats didn't count on was the enormous turnout in the Republican counties. Precincts that went for Bush by 5K in 2000 returned margins more than twice as large this time. Once again, we saw the conventional wisdom proved wrong in an American Presidential election. This time the error was in thinking that a high turnout automatically favored the Democrat and the challenger. Somewhere in the chaos of the early afternoon predictions of John Kerry's coming success, I heard one east coast prof say that "so many people wouldn't turn out just to say 'good job, Mr President.'" Maybe not, but they clearly turned out to say "No you don't, Mr gay-loving, abortion-mongering, defeat-peddling *liberal*!" The fact is that, while the Democrat's base was energized by the close election in 2000, and by hatred for George W. Bush, the Republican base was at least equally energized, and there are slightly, but significantly more of them now."


http://egbok.com/anger/archives/000063.html



The very thought of President Bush wining that second term was enough to drive her to drink that day.
110 posted on 07/16/2006 3:03:34 PM PDT by Jameison
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To: Extremely Extreme Extremist

Eaten by the damned Dems AND by FR's doom&gloomers.


111 posted on 07/16/2006 3:05:06 PM PDT by nopardons
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To: Coop

Everything is possible in politics. Doesn't make his predictions right.

MESSAGE TO CONSERVATIVES:

WORK TO SAVE AMERICA FROM THE PAIN OF LIBERAL DEMOCRAT GAINS.


112 posted on 07/16/2006 3:06:45 PM PDT by WOSG
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To: LS
I think my prediction of a net GOP GAIN of one Senate seat might be in trouble, but I don't see us losing (net) a Senate seat (+1 in MN, -1 in PA, all else a wash). I still think we can net a few House seats (Bean in IL, for ex.). And I don't see any GOP house people, except Hostetler in IN and maybe Ney in OH, who are in that much trouble.

I had the pleasure of talking with Mark Kennedy at a conservative event here in Minnesota yesterday. He is very confident. Amy Klobuchar is going to get big numbers in the fever swamps of Minneapolis-St. Paul and Duluth. The rest of the state is going to go bright red. I'm working my tail off to make sure that happens, and I'm not usually very active, except for monetary donations.

113 posted on 07/16/2006 3:06:53 PM PDT by mplsconservative
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To: Dont Mention the War

"Somewhere around here is a study someone did showing that the NYT, WaPo, etc., published absolutely nothing predicting a potential GOP tidal wave in 1994 (nor did the TV MSM), while coming up with dozens of articles and TV pieces predicting a RAT recovery in '96, '98, '00, '02 and '04."

And one of these days, they will be right.


114 posted on 07/16/2006 3:07:31 PM PDT by WOSG
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To: Coop

Actually, I am pretty sure that they are not the same thing.


115 posted on 07/16/2006 3:09:02 PM PDT by Prodn2000
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To: Prodn2000
If you're talking about LIEberman, then you are completely incorrect. He has an almost perfect score ( in voting for Dem stuff...including faaaaaaaaaaaaaar lefty things ) and the KOOKS want him gone, for one and ONLY one thing...his stance on the WOT. Funny thing is, other Dems ( Hillary, for one ), who are less staunchly left them he is, are NOT being singled out to be purged this year.

OTOH, when "we" want to oust a RINO, that RINO is someone who hardly ever sides with the president/what we want.

Why don't you get any of this?

116 posted on 07/16/2006 3:15:49 PM PDT by nopardons
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To: Jameison
Lol! You have provided a much more eloquent and factual account than I...unfortunately, I think for eternity THAT voice and THAT image will be SEARED, SEARED I say, in my election 2004 memory! UGH!
117 posted on 07/16/2006 3:16:28 PM PDT by top 2 toe red (To the enemy in Iraq..."Don't bet on American politics forcing my hand!" President Bush)
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To: Uncle Vlad

Because the last 10 years of Dems and RINO's controlling the Country have frustrated people, they are now going to vote in the Dems so that the Dems can do far more to anger and frustrate people.

Makes sense to me.


118 posted on 07/16/2006 3:17:43 PM PDT by OldArmy52 (China & India: Doing jobs Americans don't want to do (manuf., engineering, accounting, etc))
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To: Coop

ROTFLOL!!

This is exactly what Carville said in 2004! And .. the dems still don't get it.


119 posted on 07/16/2006 3:19:01 PM PDT by CyberAnt (Drive-By Media: Fake news, fake documents, fake polls)
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To: Coop
Needs to be shouted out:

President Bush & the GOP have simply not been given enough credit for an impressive economy over the past several years

The media is as biased as it has ever been and is responsible for the under-appreciation of Bush wrt economy. It's all about hurintg conservative agendas ... They want a 'kinder and gentler' GWOT, UN running our foreign policy, eco-extremism, gay marriage, US sovereignty --- and I'm not talking about leftwing Democrats, I'm talking about the New York Times. We need alternate means of getting the message to people around the MSM.
120 posted on 07/16/2006 3:28:38 PM PDT by WOSG
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