For Democrats, Wave Is Building

Washington Post ^ | 7/16/06 | Thomas E. Mann

[Coop]

There's probably no way congressional Republicans can lose this fall, no matter how unpopular President Bush is or how unhappy the voters are with the war in Iraq. That's the prevailing view in Washington today.

But it's wrong.

If history is any guide, we're heading into a major political storm. And that means we could see a national tide in November that will sweep the Democrats back into the majority.

Virtually every public opinion measure points to a Category 4 or 5 hurricane gathering...

But many analysts have noted the absence of strategic behavior on the part of the Democrats, who have failed to recruit good candidates and have allowed the Republicans to maintain a fundraising advantage...

Over the past year, the Cook Political Report has increased the number of Republican seats it considers highly vulnerable from two to 10, and those it considers somewhat vulnerable from 16 to 25. Eighteen others are potentially vulnerable. That's a total of 53 GOP seats at risk, double the number of a year ago. During the same period, the number of competitive Democratic seats declined from 14 to 10;, while the total number of Democratic seats at risk remained at 21...

[Coop]

I think this Brookings cheerleader is being overly optimistic, but of course it is possible. Serves as a potent reminder of Judiciary Chairman Johny Conyers, Speaker Pelosi, Majority Leader Jack Murtha, etc.

I hope some of the "real" conservatives around here think long and hard between now and November.

[Extremely Extreme Extremist]

There's going to be a lot of crow served in November.

[Coop]

A little more incentive to continue our quest to redeploy Johnny Murtha. Plus, wouldn't it just rip the libs' hearts out if they missed taking over by one seat... in PA-12?? :-)

[patton]

Sarcasm will get you nowhere, coop.

[Maelstorm]

Yes they had better.

[Billthedrill]

I have a rule of thumb for these "momentum is building" stories - they're a pitiable admixture of wishful thinking and an attempt to sway public opinion, and the more crushing and inevitable their predictions, the further they're wrong.

[Uncle Vlad]

A couple of months ago, I was so frustrated with the so-called Republican "leadership," I seriously considered staying home in November. I've since changed my mind. Why? Not because the Republican "leadership" doesn't deserve to be shown the door--they do. But we need to start purging the RINOs, who are ruining the country, and support the real conservatives, who are trying to save it.

[Coop]

I tend to agree with you, and do hope you're (we're) right.

[cmsgop]

There will be No Rat Tsunami

[Coop]

I'm not following you.

But actually, sarcasm has worked quite well for me. Except perhaps in my marriage!

[Liberty Valance]

If they build that wave any higher they will finally jump the shark.

[Perdogg]

Historically, with a some exceptions (1990, 1994,& 2002), economic issues drive midterm elections. I say the GOP will pick up house seats.

[Coop]

But we need to start purging the RINOs, who are ruining the country, and support the real conservatives, who are trying to save it.

Exactly. Take 'em out in the primaries. And do like some and stop supporting the RNC or NRCC (and be sure to tell 'em why), but definitely still support conservative candidates!

[E.G.C.]

BTTT

[operation clinton cleanup]

have allowed the Republicans to maintain a fundraising advantage

Have allowed? How does that work? Polls are one thing, but people who contribute money tend to show up at the voting booth.

[Jameison]

"Virtually every public opinion measure points to a Category 4 or 5 hurricane gathering..."

You don't say.
Like that category 5 tsunami that swept the RATS into power in 2002 and 2004 I suppose?
I seem to remember the same jingoistic cheer leading from the bottom feeders at the Washington Post, at this same stage in 2002 and 2004, only for them to start whimpering about "fixed Diebold" machines after their RATS paymasters got clobbered yet again.
When will they learn?
Sigh.

[REDWOOD99]

First you beat the other team. Then you work on improving your own.

[Celtjew Libertarian]

In '94 there was no real sense of how strong the GOP would be until a week or two before the election. Even then, the GOP takeover of Congress, as well as several of the governors races (Pataki over Cuomo in NY and some guy -- I forget who -- over Richards in Texas, for two), came as a surprise.

The fact that the Democratic wave is being called now leads me to believe that it's going to crest before election day.

[abclily]

Wave is building??? Mann is dreaming!!!