Posted on 07/16/2006 7:40:19 AM PDT by veronica
A leading Democratic consultant says why
Can Rudy really win?
The question is quickly moving from upper East Side party chatter to the national political debate.
Conventional wisdom says no: Although Giuliani's moderate positions on divisive social issues and soaring personal popularity in the wake of 9/11 might make him a strong general election candidate, the conservatives who dominate the Republican Party just won't let him get that far.
"As conservative Christians who take the Bible seriously, we have probably irreconcilable differences on life and family and that kind of thing," said the Rev. Jerry Falwell, typifying the view.
The truth is, not only can Giuliani take the 2008 Republican nomination, but he's a likely choice — because there are actually two primaries in the Republican Party, and Giuliani can with them both.
The fi rst involves a relatively small circle dominated by large corporate interests and kingmakers of the party establishment. The winner of this invisible primary gets a tremendous fi nancial advantage and big media buzz, and — from Nixon in 1968 to Bush in 2000 — has never lost the Republican nomination.
The pragmatic powerbroker leaders don't trust John McCain, but they know they need a winner. When they look at Giuliani's security credentials, broad appeal and a list of his recent consulting clients, they'll know they have a man they can count on.
The second contest, of course, is among Republican primary voters. Although certainly focused on social issues such as abortion and gay marriage, characterizations of these voters as a bloc of litmus test ideologues are far too simplistic.
The unparalleled support President Bush enjoyed within his base until recently was based as much on personal attributes — strong leader, straight shooter, stands up for his beliefs — as on policy positions.
Giuliani will offer these voters the same straightforward manner and disdain for political correctness that they love in Bush. Against a field led by an array of D.C. insiders, that will be a breath of fresh air. But maintaining that nonpolitical persona means not backing down from his record on social issues, which will be a red flag for most primary voters. So how does Rudy stay true to himself, assuage the concerns of most primary voters, and win the Republican nomination?
1. President Hillary Clinton. Nothing galvanizes Republicans more than abject fear of this possibility. And can they really trust Bill Frist or George Allen, two other leading contenders, to beat Hillary? With the possible exception of McCain, Giuliani's the dream matchup.
2. Proven leadership. Rudy's New York story should make any Republican drool — record surpluses and tax cuts, huge drop in crime, greatest job growth in city history and nearly 500,000 moved from welfare to work.
3. Post-9/11 world-view. Like Bush at his apex, Rudy is defined by his 9/11 leadership. He can use this platform to detail aggressive views on the war on terrorism, then go beyond Bush with equally strong views on domestic security, starting with our ports and borders. Others talk the talk here — only Rudy has walked the walk.
4. Crossing the threshold. Rudy doesn't need to out-conservative his opponents. He simply needs to cross a threshold on three key issues:
* Abortion: Yes, he is personally pro-choice, but it's judicial appointments that really matter here. Like Bush, Giuliani can say he won't have a litmus test on abortion but will seek judges who are strict constructionists and won't legislate from the bench.
* Guns: Giuliani needs to profess unmistakable respect for the right of every law-abiding citizen to own a firearm if they choose. Most voters aren't focused on details, only that you won't take away their guns.
* Gay rights: Probably the most difficult issue for Giuliani with conservatives, he championed the rights of domestic partners while in office and briefly lived with a gay couple during his divorce. The best option here is for Rudy to stick to his guns — oppose gay marriage but unapologetically support the basic rights of every human being.
And that kind of principled stand might create the biggest contrast of all with his opponents.
At the very least, I would hope this puts to rest all of those silly delusions by Giuliani supporters that he'd ever have any notion of enforcing this nation's borders.
Real What?
The writer is dead on.
Rudy is a RINO but he is also a leader and America in these times needs a leader.
I am confident that Rudy's ability to reach across party lines will compensate the likelihood of the Religious Right staying at home.
Rudy, why'd you have to support abortion? You'd have made a perfect President...
This works for me.
As RINO's go, if it comes down to it, I much prefer Rudy to McCain.
Last Saturday night,I had the priviledge to entertain at a party in East Hampton attended by RUDY!!!
Maybe Rudy can find a home as Comrade Clintons running mate.
Two liberal New York lawyers... I might has well vote for Bullwinkle...
Let's get real. GWB was anointed by the party, the "kingmakers" in the late 1990's. While others eventually ran, GWB was clearly the choice of the party bigs. This may actually be a good thing. Presidents who emerge from nowhere, during my lifetime anyway, have been staggeringly unsuccessful, i.e. Jimmy Carter.
There are others I like in the GOP, such as George Allen, who I hope get into the mix. But in the end I want someone on the ticket who can win. Any Democrat in the WH will be a disaster, especially in these incendiary times.
I don't know why you think freepers are stupid.
You know the NY republicans are too few in number to beat the democrats in NYC.
Neat! How was he?
I like Giuliani but he is not right for President and he would damage the conservative movement more than he could ever help it. He would neutralize some on the left on issues like abortion and gay rights but only because he agrees with them.
What we'd see with a Giuliani Presidency is a hyper "moderate" administration that would attempt to jetison conservatives for an influx of "independants" and leftists. He would be strong on national security but the cost would be very high in every other respect. I prefer someone like Tancredo. I think we need to stick it to the king makers and pick our own candidate this time. We don't need to be told who can win, we need to select a winner and make sure we are there to see him or her through to win.
The state of New York is only NYC?
Too bad he is avidly anti Second Amendment and pro abortion. What is it about him that makes people label him a conservative? He'll never get my vote--unless it ends up in one of those "hold you nose and vote" thingees.
Fortunately most Conservatives don't take Falwell seriously...
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.