Posted on 07/15/2006 11:24:32 PM PDT by BurbankKarl
09:19 MDA: More than 20 people hurt in Katyusha rocket strike in Haifa (Channel 2)
09:16 Residents of Acre, Haifa and its suburbs told to enter bomb shelters (Israel Radio)
09:15 Tenth Katyusha rocket lands in Haifa (Israel Radio)
09:15 Explosions heard in Rosh Hanikra (Israel Radio)
09:11 Katyusha rockets hit Acre and suburbs around Haifa Bay (Channel 2)
09:06 Report: Three to five explosion heard in central Haifa (Israel Radio)
08:47 Chirac: Forces threatening Lebanon`s security, sovereignty must be stopped (AP)
08:41 Sgt. Tal Amgar killed on Navy ship to be buried 16.00 Sun. at Ashdod cemetery (Itim)
08:39 Chirac calls for `show of moderation` in Lebanon, says cease-fire needed (Reuters)
08:37 IDF denies report of air raid on power station south of Beirut (Haaretz)
08:36 Hezbollah says it fought off attempt by IDF ground forces to cross Lebanese border (AP)
08:35 Bush urges Israel `to be mindful of the consequences` of its military actions (AP)
08:19 Jewish man arrested after threatening to stab Palestinians in J`lem`s Old City (Itim)
08:15 Al Manar: Nasrallah to give an interview later Sunday to prove he`s well (Israel Radio)
YIPPEE!
An Iranian diplomat walked into his country’s embassy here in Stockholm Saturday and threatened his colleagues with a gun.
The Swedish police say no shots were fired in the incident and no one was injured. The embassy alerted the police, who later found the man at his home. They were unable to intervene because of his diplomatic immunity, but did help the embassy staff get him to a hospital.
The man has worked at the embassy since 2003, but according to the Swedish Foreign Ministry his position is being terminated.
The UN said that? There have got to be pigs flying outside my window, better go take a look.
According to...."Free Lebanon"? Based in Jerusalem?
Their website is very amateurish. Doesn't look like a serious organization. I wouldn't take this too seriously
Someone has to reign in Clinton, Carter and Halfbright and all their stupid comments. He was President for 8 years and made some terrible mistakes, I didn't hear 41 criticize his every turn.
http://www.frontpagemag.com/blog/index.asp
"Hizbollah missiles from China via Iran - Sunday, July 16, 2006 8:21 PM
From: ChuckDeVore@aol.com [mailto:ChuckDeVore@aol.com]
Sent: Saturday, July 15, 2006 10:45 AM
Subject: My thoughts on the anti-ship missile attack off Lebanon
As a California State Assemblyman I don’t often comment on world events these days. But, with my 23-year background as an intelligence officer (I’m a lieutenant colonel) and my former job as a Special Assistant for Foreign Affairs in the Reagan-era Department of Defense, I wanted to share with you a few observations about yesterday’s missile attack off the coast of Lebanon.
I’ll spare you my thoughts about the larger conflict and Lebanon in particular (I almost attended the American University in Beirut for a semester, instead going to American University in Cairo, and was shot at in Lebanon by the Syrian army in 1984). Rather, I’ll focus specifically on the missile attack and what it means to me as an observer of the region and as an intelligence officer.
The missiles that struck the Israeli Saar 5-class missile ship and an Egyptian-crewed cargo ship, perhaps of Cambodian registry, were likely highly sophisticated C-802 anti-ship missiles. These missiles are made in China where they are known as the Yingji-802. They have a range of about 120 kilometers (72 miles) and carry a 165 kilogram (363 lb) warhead. The missile has a very small radar cross section and a high-tech anti-jamming capability giving target ships a low likelihood of shooting the missile down. This missile is considered to be among the best in the world (http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/china/c-802.htm).
China has sold a number of these missiles to Iran.
The Israeli Saar-5 was made in America, and has advanced defensive capabilities. For this reason, I doubted the initial reports (disinformation really) from the Hezbollah (Party of God) terrorist organization claiming that they used a home-made drone packed with explosives to hit the Saar-5. Were that so, it would have been shot out of the sky by the Saar’s Phalanx CIWS (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saar_5_class_missile_boat#Defensive_systems).
Missiles such as the C-802 don’t just show up in Lebanon and fire themselves. They need highly trained operators to crew them. These highly trained operators are very likely to be Iranian Revolutionary Guard troops. This means that Iran has likely directly attacked Israel while using Hezbollah as a proxy cover to mask their direct involvement.
Last comment: Iran has a large number of C-802 anti-ship cruise missiles covering the Strait of Hormuz at the mouth of the Persian Gulf.
I don’t intend to offer any policy prescriptions at this point, merely to offer you my observations of what happened Friday in the Mediterranean."
Arabs make up the bulk of tourists in Lebanon. It used to be very pretty and very Westernized. Supposedly it was rebuilding but ...
Sounds like certain key players are dissassociating themselves with what the Hizbollah did...maybe something's lining up with not wanting to be part of getting dragged into Iran's attempt to plunge the world into war?
A repost I put up on another site:
I don't want to leave this thread this way, because some unsettling possibilities have been raised, and those currently stand in limbo.
I don't want to retract or rebut anything that's been said so far. This is a serious situation, and I believe it could, in a worst case scenario, go nuclear inside a 12 to 24 hour period. That is a possibility we all have to accept.
However, I want to say that based on what I see lately, my gut tells me it will not go that far. When I talk about my gut telling me something it means that a large collection of tiny details adds together with a large collection of registered fact, information classified as to source and reliability, etc, and because so much of the gut analysis relies on small and numerous detail, it is hard to explain each and every supporting argument.
I can. however, point out some larger issues that make me believe we have a good chance of getting out of this reasonably intact.
1. Egypt says they talked Israel out of an invasion of Lebanon. Iran and Syria have not entered the conflict openly. With air strikes and rockets having been the established norm, there is no reason to think that either country will suddenly decide that what we've already seen, is unacceptable. If Iran and Syria stay out, well Hezbolla and Hamas do not have nuclear weapons, and of the two only Hezbollah seems to have the ability to reach Israel's nuclear facilities, a move which they have promised not to attempt.
2. Iran, regarding their nuclear program, has moved from "There's nothing to talk about, we will not suspend enrichment", to "Well, maybe we could discuss it, but we still aren't suspending enrichment", to "Hey, we're ready to talk, let's get this going." That's a good sign. I don't profess to understand the Iranian mindset, but I think that any person stable and rational enough to compete with others, long enough and well enough to rise to the top of the government pile, a process that usually takes decades, I think most such people, when confronted with the stark reality of seeing their home and country and all their people and all they have worked for for thousands of years vaporized, with irreversible finality, well, I don't think anyone is going to like what they see when they look over the edge into that abyss.
3. Israel hasn't invaded yet. They are losing millions, maybe hundreds of millions of dollars per day with the Port of Haifa shut down, and millions more every day that their military reserves, a large percentage of the workforce, doesn't go to work. Yet they haven't crossed the border. Maybe they looked into the abyss and didn't like what they saw, either.
4. Since this started getting ugly, there has been time for a....preventative military development, on the part of a powerful nation, to have taken place. It is now mathematically possible that an obstrution exists which can prevent this situation from going nuclear, and without that option on the table, the battle calculus changes by orders of magnitude. Because I do not know if this obstruction was implemented when it should have been, I will not discuss it in detail, it might not be ready yet, and were certain others aware that it was being implemented, they might feel pressure to rush into ill advised action.
I do not have access to classified information, this is something simple that anyone interested could figure out. I know that it is unlikely for military advisors to be reading this forum, that there is little chance that loose lips here could sink any ships, but with this much at stake, you just don't take chances.
There are a lot of other reasons to believe that this situation may have already peaked, but as I said earlier, they are too numerous and too small individually to make them worth mentioning.
I also do not want to paint a rosy picture either. It is entirely possible that Israel is still putting together a ground attack force, and that they will invade Lebanon tomorrow or Tuesday. In fact, I would expect this force to take a while to put together precisely because Israel cannot throw everything at Lebanon with the Syrian military staring across the Golan at them.
Even if Israel does not intend to invade, they will probably increase their forces on the border, as will Hezbollah, and with many people pointing guns at each other, accidents are possible. Many times, a force becomes engaged, and can only survive by moving forward, retreat guarantees extinction. I also cannot say that Hezbollah is deserving of being regarded as a monlithic entity. While it is possible for a soldier on either side to take matters into his hands, against orders, I trust the formal military organization of the IDF more than I trust a pick-up team like Hezbollah.
If Israel invades Lebanon, Syria and Iran will face hard choices, and right now, I don't think anyone can say which way they will go.
If Israel and Hezbollah continue to trade attacks without invading, eventually Hezbollah will find themselves losing to a vastly superior force. At that point, Iran and Syria could again face hard choices.
But in the face of all that, I have to say that all out war is not the only possible solution. In fact, I do not feel it is the most likely solution. It remains a possibility, something not to be ignored, but the more time that passes, the lower, in my opinion, the chances of that possibility are.
More as it becomes available or necessary...
I understand that... but today's Lebanon??
Too bad the Kaiser Soze method won't do. Would rather have the soldiers.
We were spoiled with the reporters our military embed in the run to Baghdad, this is what it was like during the 91 war when we had to wait for reports from Schwartzkopf (I really loved that man)..
16 July 2006 – The head of a three-member United Nations team dispatched to the Middle East in response to the unfolding crisis there arrived today in Beirut as an “act of solidarity” with the Lebanese people bearing a call from Secretary-General Kofi Annan for the protection of civilians, support for Lebanon's Government and the release of all those held captive.
“I have come to Lebanon as the head of this United Nations mission as an act of solidarity with the people of this country and the region, who have suffered untold misery as a result of this escalating conflict,” Vijay Nambiar told reporters following a meeting with Lebanese Prime Minister Fuad Siniora.
As efforts to defuse the crisis continue, he stressed three major points: “My first call is for the protection of civilians and civilian infrastructure, which must be respected by all parties,” he said.
“Enough innocent people have been killed. No more innocent life must be lost.”
Secondly, he emphasized that the UN supports the Lebanese Government and Prime Minister. “We support the call for a ceasefire and their aim of exercising full authority over the entire country.”
Mr. Nambiar's third point centred on “the release of the captives as part of a solution to this conflict.”
The head of the three-member delegation, which includes also Alvaro de Soto and Terje Roed-Larsen, concluded his opening statement with a direct pledge to Mr. Siniora: “Mr. Prime Minister, we are with you and the people of this country and region at a time of grave crisis,” Mr. Nambiar declared. “We plan to meet further with you.”
After that meeting, the team met with the Speaker of the Parliament, Nabih Berri. Mr. Nambiar told reporters after that the meeting had been “extremely productive” and that team members looked forward to working with Mr. Berri.
“We hope he will play an important role in resolving the escalating conflict and in defusing the crisis,” Mr. Nambiar said.
its gone beyond just the two soliders now. in fact, I suspect iran/hezbollah will release them as a "fig leaf", as a PR move against israel.
hezbollah must be disarmed and removed from lebanon for there to be a cease fire.
Probably...but I think that even President Bush was thinking there would be more strikes..and he was trying to calm people down..plus, he didn't want the whole economy to tank...
Also...I think he was worried about paranoia..and witch hunts..and vigilantes...
Perhaps it would have been better...but, I think it is more the Vietnamization of America....and the Microwave Nation...it if takes too long...it is too much trouble to deal with.
THAT is what I think Tony Snow and others need to stress...that President Bush..from DAY ONE, has said this is going to be a long war...but, if it works, it works not just for the countries in the Middle East...but for us.
Not sure what you mean. People of other Arab countries vacation there. It is a very lovely spot ... until a couple of days ago. Rebel Yell, who is stuck there, has great things to say about it.
Not so secretly any more.
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