"But all things considered, if Hezbollah returns to its roots, it should return to its first operational model: hostages."
If Hezbollah takes American hostages, we will come in after them. Hezbollah will have declared war on us. The Israelis would be the least of their concerns. We would take apart Lebanon looking for them and will go into Syria as well if necessary without blinking an eye. This is not 1983. This is a new world. It would be the commission of mass suicide on the part of Hezbollah.
Of course that might be the price Iran would be willing to pay (sacrificing a pawn) to provoke an American-Israeli joint intervention into Lebanon and Syria if they thought the resulting regional war could destabilize the entire Mideast, bring extremists to power in far more significant areas than Gaza or South Lebanon, and unite the entire region behind Iranian leadership in fighting the "Crusaders" once again along the same Mediterranean shores where they fought eight centuries ago.
His war for Jerusalem has to be framed as a war on "Crusaders". And to fight the "Crusaders", you have to bring them to the fight.
And Stratfor misses the point. Hezbollah is not running this at all. It is Iran. Right now Tehran says "jump" and Nasrallah asks "how high"? This is not about Hezbollah reverting to its "tried and true" tactics. This is about Iran going "old school". They planned this, and they are provoking the apocalyptic conflict they seek. It is not rational. It is theological. It is not just a geopolitical or strategic military move on the Mideast chessboard. It is a "leap of faith". He believes not only that God is on his side, but that he has been chosen for a special mission by God. Such a man is extraordinarily dangerous - - particularly when just 12 months ago he began to fully command the largest terror apparatus and alliance the world has ever known.
It is not about Hezbollah going back to its roots. It is about revolutionary Iran going back to its origins. It is about a young college student who, with four others, masterminded the storming of the American Embassy in Tehran and took our citizens hostage for 444 days.
That young college student is now the President of Iran. And he believes he has been appointed by God to initiate the apocalypse (the "unveiling" of the hidden Imam) by a regional war involving America, Israel, and the possible mass use of WMD that would globalize the conflict and radicalize the Islamic world to the point where moderate regimes are overthrown and millions join in jihad instead of the mere tens of thousands that do so right now (there are not enough active jihadi fighters on the planet right now to fill more than a baseball stadium or two if you put them all together, but he will have an eager army of millions if he provokes a cataclysmic war).
That is what he is trying to do.
I agree with you, but it's a very frightening image.
Thanks for that perspective, it sounds like I should sell some stocks.
You are just so damn smart.
It's scary.
agree with your analysis. Stratfor does a good job, but they do miss the Messiah complex angle of the Iranian president, which is exactly what makes this conflict so potentially dangerous, it could go global if Hizbullah/Syria/Iran launch some WMD attack into Israel