Calderon willing to accept partial recount in Mexico (Translation)

eluniversal.com.mx ^ | July 13, 2006 | eluniversal.com.mx ( translated by self )

[StJacques]

The total recount would be absurd and illegal, the PAN leader indicates; he offers to accept the judgement of the TEPJF.¹

The virtual winner of the presidential election of July 2, Felipe Calderón Hinojosa, said he is willing to accept a partial recount of the vote, but he ruled out a total reexamination considering it "absurd and illegal," [according to] an interview with the United States daily newspaper The Washington Post.

With the purpose of preventing "the escalation of tensions," Calderón ruled out summoning his followers to go out into the streets and counteract Andrés Manuel López Obrador's sympathizers.²

He said he will respect the judgement of the Electoral Tribunal of the Judicial Power of the Federation (TEPJF) which evaluates the presidential elections.

Nevertheless, last night, National Deputy³ Juan Molinar, a member of the PAN party campaign team, provided information that Calderón did not reveal his disposition to the opening of the electoral packets⁴ to the United States capitol daily newspaper.

"The decision is not incumbent upon the political parties nor the IFE,⁵ it is a matter of law under certain circumstances. This is what he revealed," the legislator argued.

To the Spanish daily newspaper El Pais, Calderón said that he is readying a presidency that will be subject to permanent mobilization. From his point of view, the PRD⁶ challenge before the electoral tribunal "does not have the least substance."

He added that he is sure that the electoral tribunal will ratify the results and he wants "to beat the drum of his mandate."

Josefina Vázquez Mota,⁷ charged with acting as political liason for the PAN party transition team, assured that she has maintained contact and permanent dialogue with "very relevant" actors of the PRD.

She said a common longing exists for the election to come up before the TEPJF and that is the only place in which they can resolve differences. "There is diversity of opinion in the (For the Good of All⁸) coalition, but we are maintaining permanent dialogue."

An important group within the PRD has the desire to build agreements and to respect the law, she commented.

In the capital of the country, PRD supporters from its 40 electoral districts are carrying out marches to the Zócalo capitol plaza, in favor of López Obrador's defense of the vote.

In agreement with Jesús Ortega Martínez,⁹ coordinator of the campaign, in the neighborhood of 50,000 people began mobilizations [for separate marches] in the 32 states.

In a press conference, López Obrador said that in the district committees [of the IFE] they are continuing to open electoral packets and that is a flagrant violation of the the law. He stated that the electoral councils and the IFE and the council president, Luis Carlos Ugalde, had acted like delinquents, a reason why his legal team is analyzing legal proceedings.¹⁰

With respect to this, the IFE ordered the suspension of the opening of the electoral packets in the electoral districts "so as not to feed the controversy unleashed by this motive in our country."¹¹

The IFE has been opening the packets to compose the files they will send to the TEPJF.

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Translator's Notes:

¹Acronym of the Tribunal Electoral del Poder Judicial de la Federación, or the Electoral Tribunal of the Judicial Power of the Federation, the court designated to oversee the election results and which has power to order a recount.

²López Obrador's followers have been very active in street protests since the immediate aftermath of the voting, when preliminary returns showed Calderón leading, a result validated in the certified count completed July 6th.

³A "Deputy" is a member of the Camara de Diputados, the lower house of the Mexican national legislature.

⁴The "electoral packets" are the casillas, the ballots cast in each precinct that are crated and sealed after the count is certified by on-site representatives of all the major parties and which are not supposed to be opened by election officials unless irregularities are detected.

⁵Acronym of the Federal Electoral Institute, which handles the counting of votes under Mexican law.

⁶Acronym of the Partido de la Revolucion Democratica, or "Party of the Democratic Revolution," López Obrador's party.

⁷Josefina Vázquez Mota, former Mexican Social Minister was a high-level functionary in Calderón's presidential campaign.

⁸The "For the Good of All" coalition represents the unification of several political parties aligned with the PRD to support López Obrador's political campaign.

⁹Jesús Ortega Martínez is the PRD's former legislative coordinator who has served as the actual campaign coordinator for López Obrador in the recent election campaign.

¹⁰López Obrador may be trying to spin what happened yesterday in the states of Tabasco and Puebla, in which PRD demonstrators intimidated the IFE into bringing to a halt any opening of the electoral packets containing ballots for reasons of gaining access to their documentation in the normal process of creating files they must keep on the various elections. In Comacalco, Tabasco these demonstrators evidently seized a local PAN party leader, prompting PAN officials to go before the Procurator General of the Republic charging that the PRD kidnapped him.

¹¹You can read the translation of this news story at http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1664771/posts.

[StJacques]

Okay everyone, this particular article with its accompanying notes -- and I would ask that you pay particularly close attention to notes #10 and #11 -- pretty much brings us up to date on the state of the Mexican post-election controversy.

I have examined the other major news items on the Mexican web sites today and I can add the following short items, all originally in Spanish whose contents I will only summarize, to wrap up what has gone down today:

At http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/notas/362196.html there is an article describing the initiation of proceedings relating to the federal electoral tribunal (TEPJF). Some of it suggests there are multiple layers of bureaucracy involved here that will probably require me to get deeper within Mexican governmental institutions that I would want to do, but the main points are that the IFE is beginning to bring materials and files required by the court to judge the validity of the election results and specifically that both PAN and the PRD are protesting the official counts accorded the other in two Mexican states where they allege irregularities occurred. The PRD is challenging the count in one district of the state of Tamaulipas, a PAN stronghold on the northern Gulf Coast bordering Texas, and PAN is challenging the count in the southern state of Chiapas, a PRD bastion which comprises a good portion of the Mexican-Guatemalan border area.

At http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/notas/362142.html Calderon asserts that the TEPJF does not have the legal authority to order a "vote by vote" recount of the entire election. He claims that only where possible irregularities are demonstrated may the TEPJF order the opening of the electoral packets. I'm not so sure this was a good idea since judges everywhere do not like to have the limits of their powers explained to them by one coming before them in the courtroom.

At http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/notas/362136.html the PRD is accusing the Federal Electoral Institute of continuing to open electoral packets "illegally." Supposedly the IFE announced yesterday that they would suspend this process, which they must undertake to compile files on each packet. This looks like a minor issue at first glance but it is not. Once the packets are opened and the seal is broken it is impossible under Mexican law to do a recount of the ballots unless the recount is done immediately by certified officials who witness the breaking of the seal. This is a really big deal for Lopez Obrador and the PRD because the IFE has work to do and if they go too far along a recount is all but impossible.

And without linking to additonal pages other things that have happened are that PAN has instructed its functionaries to avoid confrontation and to quit "using adjectives" to describe Lopez Obrador and the PRD which anger the latter, Lopez Obrador is blaming the government for running commercials not related to the election which he alleges had a pro-Calderon message, this could be important later since under Mexican law a misuse of government funds to benefit one candidate is grounds for annulling the election, and numerous unions are issuing threats to the government if Lopez Obrador's victory is not recognized. They're not asking for a recount, they want Lopez Obrador declared the winner.

[StJacques]

A Mexican post-election ping for you all.

Anyone wishing to see other translated articles on the Mexican post-election controversy can retrieve them using a "keyword" search with the unique keyword -- STJTRANSLATION

[BunnySlippers]

[phoenix0468]

Wow, Al Gore learned to speak spanish and changed his name?

[StJacques]

There has been a near-universal affixation of the name "Obragore" to Lopez Obrador for asking for the recount phoenix.

[phoenix0468]

I want to laugh, but my brain just went numb.

[SAJ]

You're doing a marvelous job, Saint. MANY thanks!

[NinoFan]

Excellent job. Thanks for the ping.

[mjolnir]

You're doing a marvelous job, Saint. MANY thanks!

Ditto!

Great point about judges not enjoying being dictated to! I hope Calderon hasn't pissed them off enough that they act unprofessionally and do start a recount.

One of the things Rush Limbaugh always seems to be coming back to is the idea that, assuming the purpose of President Bush's "new tone" was to keep from angering the Left, it was doomed from the start, the Left having been born angry, getting angrier with every insult and insulted by every kindness.

So PAN can't mollify ObraGore and his followers. What's he trying to do with this "lay off the adjectives" business, then? Does he really have a chance of keeping the flames from being further stoked? Or is he trying to get the middle, the PRI voters on his side? Or to impress the international community? Or is Calderon succumbing to the bullying? Although I suppose he could simply be giving the order because he believes it's the right thing to do.

What annoys me so much about the Left is that, no matter how big voter turn-out is, they assume that if turn-out had been bigger, they would have won, and that if a "chad" is impossible to decipher, why, it must have been intended for the leftist candidate. Why? because they're the party of the People, that's why! It's like Rousseau's old idea of the "General Will"-- what the the people want is actually what the Leftists want, always, whether it's been expressed in their votes or not.

[California Patriot]

Just off the top, I think there is a big difference between W. and Calderon, one that works in Calderon's favor. W. grew up in a comfortable, country-club Republican environment. He never had a sense of being part of the "movement conservative" insurgency. The entire Bush family are nice-guys, "uniters," and bipartisans -- ill-equipped temperamentally and intellectually to fight fire with fire. Not that it's never happened, but it's not who and what they are.

Calderon's father was among the founders of PAN many decades ago. He saw it built up from scratch over a period of decades against very tough opposition, to say the least. While I'm in no position to vouch for the shrewdness of Calderon's every move in this awful mess, I do have some confidence that he has no illusions about the old system's new face, ObraGore, or its idiot supporters. Whatever he may seem to be saying or doing or not doing, I think Calderon is tough enough to stand firm. If he loses this, it won't be his fault.

[StJacques]

". . . So PAN can't mollify ObraGore and his followers. What's he trying to do with this "lay off the adjectives" business, then? Does he really have a chance of keeping the flames from being further stoked? Or is he trying to get the middle, the PRI voters on his side? Or to impress the international community? Or is Calderon succumbing to the bullying? . . ."

Well I can only give you my best guess, but for what it's worth, this is my take on the strategy Calderon and the PAN are pursuing as of this moment.

If there was no controversy over the election results, right now the Federal Electoral Institute would be going about its normal business, opening the packets, i.e. the casillas, and pulling out the relevant documents to place in files and/or to be included within a number of summary reports they are required by law to take to the Electoral Tribunal so that the latter can complete the final stage of certifying the results. Lopez Obrador and the PRD obviously understand that this process of the normal completion of the requirements of Mexican electoral law makes a recount of all the votes impossible if it goes too far. So their apparent strategy is to stoke the flames of public indignation among their supporters to sabotage the IFE's work and prevent the opening of the casillas.

So if I'm Calderon and the PAN, what I would want most is for the IFE to continue its work unabated. Every time the IFE opens another casilla, the chances of a recount become slimmer and slimmer. So in that regard, their decision to "act as though everything is normal" makes perfect sense. Even though everyone understands that "nothing is normal" -- I mean "what's a kidnapping among friends?" -- it is still in the interests of Calderon and the PAN to simply sit back and hope that Mexican electoral law runs its normal course.

Does that make sense? I think it does.

[La Enchiladita]

Thanks so much for keeping up with all these articles and translations, St.Jacques. I appreciate it.

[StJacques]

You're welcome La Enchiladita.

To tell the truth, the more practice I get, the easier it becomes.

[mjolnir]

Thanks, your points about Calderon are well put and reassuring-- at least as regards his side of things.

I wonder, are ANY of the unions in Mexico not supporting this petulant crap?

In this story, it says the miner's union isn't having its members walk off the job to join the demonstrations. Could that be due to their lack of confidence in ObraGore?

[CedarDave]

Thanks again for the PING. Great to have an update, especially now that all eyes in this country are on the middle east.

[mjolnir]

Thanks, StJacques, your translations are very informative but your cool, rational analyses would do Brit Hume proud!

Yes, your explantion makes sense-- the old keep running time off the clock offense.

Ceci Connelly's blog in the Washington Post has an interesting comments section. The AMLO supporters sound make about as much sense as the typical DUer, but the rest of the comments that seem to be from Mexican voters appear to give Calderon credit for keeping cool and reaching out, ven if they didn't vote for him.

[Reverend Bob]

Many thanks. Always enjoy the updates.

[StJacques]

". . . the rest of the comments that seem to be from Mexican voters appear to give Calderon credit for keeping cool and reaching out . . ."

You know I could have added that "looking presidential" is an important part of the PAN playbook right now, particularly in reaching out to the PRI voters and that is something we haven't talked about much. Their candidate, Roberto Madrazo, received something like 28 or 29 percent of the votes for President. I do get the sense from numerous statements made by PRI leaders -- who are on the outside in this controversy -- that they see Lopez Obrador's challenge to the election as a real threat to the country. They formally purged one of their party leaders today, Elba Esther Gordillo, who I believe is a judge, perhaps in the Federal District. She made some public statements which seemed supportive of Lopez Obrador and evidently permitted a phone call between her and one of Lopez Obrador's campaign staffers to be taped -- it had to do with the "bad news" that several PRI Governors were going to recognize Calderon's victory -- and the tape was played at the beginning of the big demonstration AMLO and the PRD held last Saturday in Mexico City. In the article at this link they describe her formal ouster from the PRI Party today. Clearly the PRI is moving to distance themselves from Lopez Obrador and they are lining up behind Calderon.

Some Mexican political commentators think that Gordillo's decision to side with Lopez Obrador threatens the very existence of the PRI, since so many of them are rushing to support Calderon. Here is a political cartoon I ran across last night. Esther Gordillo is standing on the grave of the PRI -- note that the letters "PRI" are rearranged to form "RIP" in the mexican colors of the PRI symbol -- holding two knives saying "I killed it, I killed it."

        

[mjolnir]

How can the defection of one person, how ever influential, kill a party? Do they not have the tradition we do where the winner of the primary is the unoffical spokesman fro the party (unless he's a total loser like Kerry and Gore were)? Why wouldn't the decision by Roberto Madrazo and the others simply outweigh hers in importance? I mean, the Democrats survived Stephen Douglas supporting the Union.

[StJacques]

That's a pretty tough question mjolnir. Here is the best answer I think I can give.

The election campaign just concluded was a contest between two very different ideas of the kind of Mexico that would emerge after years of one-party domination by the PRI. Fox's administration was really no more than "Mexican politics in a holding pattern," given that the PRI-dominated Congress stopped all his major reforms. In the meantime, i.e. over the last five plus years, Mexicans began to make up their minds about whether they wanted a country whose national policies seek to embody the values of a modern business-oriented technocratically-efficient society the PAN aspires to achieve or whether they wanted to emphasize the class-oriented politics of the left as a remedy for the truly terrible problems of social injustice that genuinely do persist in Mexico to this day. The PRI was essentially not in the mix of this debate, because if they stand for anything right now it is political tradition and institutional continuity.

So in light of the paragraph I've just written, I guess my basic answer is that one person cannot kill a party, which you seem to suggest must be part of what's going on down south. There really are some profound political changes that have taken place in Mexico in recent years that seem to indicate Gordillo's defection is more a symptom of some underlying reality that is just now surfacing than it is a seminal event propelling Mexican political life forward. But do not let me finish all of this by stating that this was inevitable, or to go even further, that the PRI is finished, because I do not think they necessarily are done.

As I see it, the PRI is going to have to get into the debate on ideas that has swirled around them for the past several years and contribute something on their own. Part of what they must stand for is moderation, they should also imply stability is a major goal. But they absolutely must do this within a recognizable commitment that things must change and demonstrate that they themselves are changing by presenting ideas that give substance to the claim. This means they are going to have to work with one side or the other in enacting a legislative agenda, and clearly in this case it will be the PAN given the endorsements of their major leaders of Calderon's victory. But no matter what they must actually move to get reforms enacted in their national legislature and in state and local governments. If they fail in this, they are done.

So I'm not ready to write their obituary, but I'm expecting to see things change significantly over the next few years. These are exciting times for Mexico to be honest.

One other thing; if AMLO and co. decide to tear Mexico apart in this election fight, it might just force everyoen in the PRI to take sides and, in that event, I would predict a 2/3 to 1/3 split in favor of the PAN.