Posted on 07/10/2006 12:11:27 AM PDT by M. Espinola
I don't know the reputation of this Rogers guy, but T. Boone Pickens says we will see $100 a barrel before years' end. Pickens knows more about the oil business than any species on the planet. We have China and Indias' economies to thank as well as the fact that world oil production is past the peak. Read Hubbard's Peak for your own interpretation.
Commodities "investing" goes something like this:
I'll bet you the price will go up
Response: I'll betcha it'll go down. How much ya wanna bet?
Stock market investing puts money into a system that historically has created wealth. Commodities investing puts money into a system that has a loser for every winner.
...no kidding....I've invested for 30 years and been a broker for over 15....and I would not touch the commodities market for me or my clients....except the already wealthy who want to really develop 10% as a hedge to their asset allocation....many newbies are getting in now and they don't realize unlike the stock market....you can lose everything....and quickly.....oh, but how they learn a lesson....
Bring it on, it'll be great for my motorcycle businesses.
:)
Oil hasn't gone up much lately (last 6 mos.). I'm betting (not literally)it will go below $60 before it goes over $100.
Executive order: screw the enviroweenies and start drilling EVERYWHERE! Start building three new refineries, one on each coast and one out in the middle.
Let me guess. Rogers is long oil. Am I smart or what?
And no way must will drill in ANWR or the continental shelf!! It would be bad for whales or polar bear or something!!
"One factor that could bring down the price would be a bird flu epidemic, which would send all asset classes plummeting, he said, although oil would probably fall less than other markets."
Sure. That or Barbara Streisand coming out of retirement.
Seems to me he is wrong a lot of the time, on a lot of issues.
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Probably, but he is among the richest men in the entire world, I wish I could be wrong that way!
Given he's hyping $100 oil and worrying about a bird flu pandemic, I'd say he's just parroting what he's read at the blog pimper site newspundit.net. Throw in the imminent collapse of the dollar and American real estate and you've hit the trifecta. LOL!
But none of the Indian or Pakistani recent Governments have
evidenced hostility to the West as Iran's mullahs have...
Likelyhood of a strike from that quarter is remote. From Iran, far higher based on Amadinejad's statements alone.
BLM has said the United States holds significant oil shale resources underlying a total area of 16,000 square miles. This represents the largest known concentration of oil shale in the world and holds an estimated 800 billion barrels of recoverable oil.
Oil Shale Development in the United States, Prospects and Policy Issues
http://www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/2005/RAND_MG414.sum.pdf
Oil Shale and Tar Sands Leasing Programmatic EIS Information Center
http://ostseis.anl.gov/
Back in the 90's the Pakistanis were not friendly to the US and they actually detonated a nuke. The Saudi oil fields were still withing range of Saddam's scuds and Oil traded below $15. Throughout the late 90's the Iranians fielded new missiles along their coast. The current saber rattling has done nothing to affect the flow of oil and inventories are up...The traders are looking for any excuse right now and it is not justified.
I suspect there will be indictments coming soon. Months ago when Congress made threatening overtones, the price would drop overnight. Their investigation looked at the wrong people..As Ted Nugent would say..."It's a free for all!"
Never trust a guy in a bowtie - never.
Sounds a lot like what people thought about the "new economy" during the dot-com bubble...
Of course, with commodities, there's something "real" behind it, like oil.
But Rogers has been touting "commodities" on every show I've seen him on since the 90's.
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