Posted on 07/08/2006 8:24:25 PM PDT by LdSentinal
In July 2004, freshman Gov. Jennifer Granholm was in such demand for interviews at the Democratic National Convention in Boston, she even turned down star ABC News anchorman Peter Jennings.
She was toasted as a bright new hope, chosen for a prime-time speech. Admirers were disappointed to learn she was born in Canada and therefore can never run for president.
Two years later, Granholm's rising star has been yanked to Earth by a lagging Michigan economy. Polls show her virtually tied with Republican challenger Dick DeVos, whose unprecedented TV ad campaign so far has cost an estimated $7 million.
Meanwhile, Granholm holds her fire.
Pundits say Granholm is in danger of becoming a one-term wonder.
If her celebrity has worn thin, her skills as a campaigner have not. The re-election of Michigan's first female governor will hinge on whether her charisma and power of persuasion can trump the public's deep anxiety over the state's economy.
"I think we have very challenging circumstances in Michigan because of our automotive industry, and when you combine that with a very well-funded opponent, it makes a great opportunity to educate voters about our plan," Granholm said in Battle Creek last week, referring to her actions to lure new jobs to the state, upgrade education standards and put people to work repairing roads. "People in Michigan have to have an aggressive plan, and they know we didn't get here because they have a Democratic governor.
"We got here because of the automotive industry, because of unfair trade and old solutions that are not going to get us out."
Michigan's unemployment rate of 6 percent compares poorly to the national rate, 4.6 percent. Granholm must convince voters that her recovery plan will produce more jobs.
But her candidacy is more complex than a simple referendum on the economy, according to interviews with her supporters and critics.
Some say she has carried unrealistic expectations as the first female governor, whom many saw as a whoosh of fresh air after 12 years of contentious rule by Republican John Engler.
She's had to wrestle huge budget deficits, and she acted as a careful centrist to neither raise nor lower general taxes, which at times pleased neither liberals nor conservatives. Budget cuts don't make many friends.
She has protected health care for needy people and school funding and vetoed legislation that was noxious to Democrats, such as stripping Detroit of control of its water system and repealing the Single Business Tax without a replacement. She led efforts to raise the state's minimum wage.
Her supporters say Granholm is hampered by a Republican-controlled Legislature, President George W. Bush and, by inference, DeVos, heir to the Amway fortune and a supporter of Bush's international free-trade policies.
"She came in with a terrible mess on her hands, and she's done admirably with it," said Sonny Bowens, 58, owner of the Par 4 Lounge in Battle Creek. "Some of the things that have happened in this state, the auto industry especially, has made her job much more difficult.
"That trickles down from the president who embraces jobs being transferred out of this country."
John Di Donato, 61, a retired teacher from Warren, thinks his candidate is in trouble.
"She has to do something about jobs, stop young people from leaving this state," Di Donato said Friday. "Look at all the homes that are for sale.
"She has to convince people the state isn't so bad off."
Critics say Granholm has no single, crowning achievement voters can point to. Her economic plans to produce better-educated workers and lure diverse industries are laudable goals that are years away and haven't benefited today's voters.
"Jennifer Granholm lacks a defining issue people can easily categorize her with in a campaign," said Robert Kolt, a public relations executive who worked in the Democratic administration of former Gov. James Blanchard. "It's a challenge to people who are packaging her to come up with something that is defining and non offensive."
Kolt said voters don't view Granholm negatively, but " you don't hear about Jennifer Granholm's leadership on any issue, or an agenda. They'll have to reintroduce her to the public. ... There's a lot of opportunity to do that."
He added: "If it takes an hour to explain your plan, you don't deserve to be re elected. The same goes for Dick DeVos."
Bill Ballenger, publisher of Inside Michigan Politics and a critic of Granholm, said she has been too cautious to champion bold, even outrageous plans, such as a tax increase to prevent budget cuts.
"She could have been bold enough to change the argument; she could have used her charisma to build support for it," Ballenger said. "Instead, she tried to be `Republican lite.' It made her look indecisive."
Granholm has opposed more tax cuts. She supports shifting business taxes so that manufacturers - particularly automakers - pay less and others, like insurance companies, pay more.
Granholm said there are no quick and easy fixes to the economy. She said her campaign will better explain her economic plan, whose centerpiece is a $2-billion cache of state and private money to invest in new businesses that create jobs and innovative products. She said 500 businesses already have applied for money.
She said Republicans have denied her a political victory at the expense of the state's college students by blocking plans to increase the Michigan Merit Award from a $2,500 grant to $4,000 for those who complete a four-year degree.
"We will be reminding people what has happened and what our plans are for the future," she said.
Economists agree that Granholm faces something previous governors have not: a chronic downturn that's not part of the usual boom-bust auto industry cycle. The depth of the problem was underscored by the recent buyout of nearly 48,000 workers at General Motors Corp. and Delphi Corp.
Granholm said it's too early to judge her campaign, and would not reveal when she will launch her first, all-important TV ads. (The Michigan Democratic Party produces the ads currently promoting her.)
"She'll need to be on the air for eight weeks, non stop, with both positive and negative attack ads," said Kolt, the PR expert. "And it will be expensive."
Matthew Dowd, a DeVos campaign strategist, said DeVos' TV ads have made him a more comfortable alternative to Granholm among independent voters and even some Democrats.
"People that have moved to us are people who like her, but don't like the state's direction and have decided she's not up to the job," Dowd said.
Dowd said DeVos' poll numbers will drop when negative TV ads are launched against him.
"In the end, it will be decided by 2 or 3 percent, no matter what," he said.
Macomb Township resident J. Walker, 48, a systems analyst for a health care organization, said Friday that she usually votes Democratic and picked Granholm in 2002. Now, Walker has concerns.
"She's been kind of quiet and passive, and a lot of things have happened in the state," Walker said.
But Walker said she doesn't know whether DeVos has better answers for the state's economy.
"I need to hear and see something more definite from both sides," she said.
It would be better if DeVos were running against Stabenow for the Senate.
Hey, Jennie, how's about you tell us what YOU HAVE DONE, instead of more fiction about what you might do? Typical Democrat crap..."you have it so bad, we promise we'll make it better, just re-elect us. What? You say we've had the opportunity and done nothing, and now we're back telling you how bad it is, and we can make it better if you'll just vote for us? Well, that's all us Democrats know how to do: blow hot air up your skirt! But vote for us anyway!"
Ah yes, but Barack Obama is now the star du jour of the 'rat party.
Who will unseat him from the Rookie of the Year throne?? That blinking goofball from Virginia??
Remember that the Dems tried to sell Gray Davis as Presidential material as well.
"We got here because of the automotive industry, because of unfair trade and old solutions that are not going to get us out."
That's right... Kick out the labor union, and the problem is solved.
Are the Democrats advocating style over substance???
Granholm's a disgrace to my state. If it weren't for Detroit, Ann Arbor, and Flint, Levin and Stabenow would not have been elected as well.
I'm going to get flamed, but it seems that immigrant governors have a tough time of it.
I agree. We need a Senate under real Republican control more than we need control of the Michigan statehouse.
We already hold control of the Michigan Legislature. It's the governorship we're going for, and Gov. Granholm is vulnerable. She was unwise to let the issues be defined by Mr. DeVos, and he pounced on the issues plaguing many more liberal voters: Poor job market and even worse wages. Muskegon, Battle Creek, Flint, and Detroit have been hammered by businesses moving out and closing up shop (Electrolux in Greenville, anyone?).
Sure, it's important to have a good conservative in the Senate, and Sen. Stabenow is also vulnerable, but governerships are important, especially since Michigan is still one of the larger states in the union. Anyway, I think that Bouchard or Butler would make more conservative senators than DeVos.
We need a a combined senate/house that only works part time (with wages to reflect) in MI.
I think Devos is going to win and that I welcome regardless. I still savor the idea of a National Senate free of the liberal stranglehold.
you've got that right! Those damned cities are full of stupid voters! It still just cracks me up that all the teachers and their precious unions fought to get granholm in office and the first thing she did was cut cut cut the schools budgets! She lost powerful allies right off the bat! She totally bit the hands that fed her!
Any reasonably fresh face in the party of old hacks, er, the Democrat Party, is bound to become the media's "rising star." They are trying to sell Napolitano in Arizona as the next best thing, too. Next year, it will be another "fresh face" - preferably a woman, the media loves female winners along with liberal African Americans - who will become the new "rising star." They come and they go, talking of Michelangelo....
She doesn't need to worry about the unions - I can't speak for every union member, but the union leadership will support any demo running against any repub in MI no matter what.
Well, one can always hope for future stardom from her metro-hubby, Danielle ....
I've rather have Stabenow gone than Granholm. Granholm can only ruin the lives on people in that state but big fat Debbie can help ruin the lives of all Americans.
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