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Analysis: N. Korea impact being weighed
AP on Yahoo ^ | 7/4/06 | Pete Yost - ap

Posted on 07/04/2006 6:36:18 PM PDT by NormsRevenge

WASHINGTON - Six-party talks: Dead? Tensions around the Sea of Japan: Off the charts. And in Washington: What do we do now?

North Korea delivered some unwanted fireworks to the Bush administration on the Fourth of July, shooting off missiles in an act heard around the globe. Now the White House must figure out how to transform what it calls a "provocation" into an opportunity.

"We're just going to have to do our homework, do the analysis and see what we can divine about what they had in mind," National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley said of North Korea.

Even before North Korea's latest move, regional talks on the country's nuclear program were stalled, some observers say functionally dead, though they had not been declared so.

Suddenly, with missiles plunging into the Sea of Japan, the idea that any of the negotiators would sit down in a relatively cordial and non-confrontational atmosphere seems inconceivable for the forseeable future.

The temperature-taking is about to begin, with Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill heading to the region for discussions with South Korea, Japan and China about their views and whether the six-party talks are headed for the graveyard.

Sandy Berger, the National Security Adviser in the Clinton administration, said on CNN the United States ultimately would have to enter direct talks with North Korea because the six-party talks have failed.

Another of the many downsides to North Korea's action is the lesson that missile tests might offer for other countries unfriendly to the United States. Take, for example, Iran.

North's Korea's Independence Day display got the attention of the world in a way all of Iran's rhetoric hasn't. None of this is lost on the White House, which wasted no time in letting the two bad boys on the block know where things stand.

"The message that we do not want a nuclear North Korea or a nuclear weapon-armed Iran — that message is the same message and the international community is unified in sending that message," said Hadley. "So that is the lesson that we hope both the Iranians and North Koreas will draw from this."

If there's a silver lining to Tuesday's events, some observers argue, it might be the failure of the long-range Taepodong 2 missile.

On the other hand, says Selig Harrison, an American scholar on the North Korean regime, the flop of the Taepodong 2 could have the unfortunate effect of strengthening the hand of the North Korean military leaders who have argued for more frequent testing of the missile.

Unless the United States succeeds with new diplomatic advances soon, the North Korean generals may win an internal argument in favor of speeding up their missile development program, Harrison said.

___

White House reporter Deb Riechmann, diplomatic writer Anne Gearan, military writer Bob Burns and Washington reporter Larry Margasak contributed to this report.


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; Government; Japan; Politics/Elections; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: analysis; geopolitics; impact; missile; nkorea; northkorea; proliferation; taepodong2; weighed
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1 posted on 07/04/2006 6:36:21 PM PDT by NormsRevenge
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To: NormsRevenge

Japan should send the NK back their rockets.


2 posted on 07/04/2006 6:38:43 PM PDT by austinaero
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To: NormsRevenge

Ignore them....ignore them....ignore them....


3 posted on 07/04/2006 6:40:28 PM PDT by shield (A wise man's heart is at his RIGHT hand; but a fool's heart at his LEFT. Ecc. 10:2)
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To: shield

Maybe. All this "we'll study it and figure out what to do" is weak. The N Koreans only respect credible threats.


4 posted on 07/04/2006 6:42:13 PM PDT by Williams
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To: NormsRevenge

We don't have to enter into direct talks with N. Korea.

We need to decide if we're going to take a firm stand against NK's nuclear ambitions and cut off all foreign aid, and threaten all the countries who try to pick up the slack with trade repercussions. This includes China.



North Korea's sole purpose in gaining nuclear weapons is to escape China's shadow. With nuclear weapons North Korea can hold its neighbors and its own cities hostage, forcing concessions of more aid from the international community. It wouldn't be necessarily overt coercion, but the shadow of nuclear terrorism would hang over all trade and aid negotiations from then on.

China doesn't mind. North Korea serves as a major distraction from China's own military build up. China could put an end to this if they wanted to. That they haven't only means that they choose not to.


5 posted on 07/04/2006 6:42:34 PM PDT by coconutt2000 (NO MORE PEACE FOR OIL!!! DOWN WITH TYRANTS, TERRORISTS, AND TIMIDCRATS!!!! (3-T's For World Peace))
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To: NormsRevenge

"..delivered some unwanted fireworks to the Bush administration "
Well, Pete Yost-AP,If it was just to people in the Bush administration, I guess the remaining of us millions of Americans have nothing to worry about!


6 posted on 07/04/2006 6:42:43 PM PDT by Carl LaFong ("Watch out for snakes!")
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To: NormsRevenge

Let the Asians handle it. There's only 2 light bulbs in North Korea and one of them is burnt out.
Seems like with all this hand wringing going on around the world over a few dead carp that Little Ding Dong has got his way. Again.


7 posted on 07/04/2006 6:42:46 PM PDT by Past Your Eyes (Some people are too stupid to be ashamed.)
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To: NormsRevenge
"The message that we do not want a nuclear North Korea or a nuclear weapon-armed Iran — that message is the same message and the international community is unified in sending that message," said Hadley. "So that is the lesson that we hope both the Iranians and North Koreas will draw from this."

We haven't sent a meaningful message to Iran or NK. We're not in a very good position to do anything to NK without putting millions in Seoul SK in immediate jeopardy. Iran might be easier.

8 posted on 07/04/2006 6:44:28 PM PDT by umgud (Gov't needs a Department of Common Sense)
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To: Williams
we'll study it and figure out what to do

LOL...we already know what to do. We're just putting out disinformation!!! Come on don't be fooled...we've got plans for every scenario you can't even imagine....

9 posted on 07/04/2006 6:47:01 PM PDT by shield (A wise man's heart is at his RIGHT hand; but a fool's heart at his LEFT. Ecc. 10:2)
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To: NormsRevenge
Why no mention about how well our airborne laser worked?
10 posted on 07/04/2006 6:54:20 PM PDT by fella (Respect does not equal fear unless your a tyrant.)
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To: fella

Oh Mannnn,, You're on Triple super duper secret probation for divulging that . ;-)


11 posted on 07/04/2006 6:57:41 PM PDT by NormsRevenge (Semper Fi --- Help the "Pendleton 8' and families -- http://www.freerepublic.com/~normsrevenge/)
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To: austinaero
To all
Pretend your Kim Il-Jong. Where is your motivation to give up nuclear weapon development?
Nuclear weapons make him a 'player' on the international scene. Being nuclear armed make him the second most powerful country militarily in Asia. (Second to the PRC!)
Does anyone rationally (other then a liberal!) think that appealing to his concern for the needs of his 'people' will work ? From his viewpoint his people are fine anything less would admit failure or weakness on his part. Not something a megalomaniac dictator is likely to do.
He will negotiate for the international attention and for material to increase his military arsenal.
Personally I think we should simply ignore him, and let both South Korea & Japan develop antimissile systems and their own nuclear countering force. The PRC won't like this but North Korea is (maybe was !)their client state.
12 posted on 07/04/2006 6:58:52 PM PDT by Reily
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To: All

just a side note,

I don't know which is worse,

a panel of former Clintinoids on with Larry King dissecting the NK situation with a cameo phone call appearance by Slimy Bill Richardson.

or

Hannity&Colmes loading it up tonight with re-hashed Howard Stern and Ward Churchill segments..


13 posted on 07/04/2006 7:01:14 PM PDT by NormsRevenge (Semper Fi --- Help the "Pendleton 8' and families -- http://www.freerepublic.com/~normsrevenge/)
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To: NormsRevenge
I flipped over to CNN and almost puked. Larry King was loaded up with Wendy Sherman, Sandy Berger, John Pike, and a couple others I didn't recognize. Throw in Richardson and you are going to get a really balanced picture. (projectile barfing)

The Dems and the media must have been planning this response for weeks to dig up this many leftist leftovers from the failed policies of the past. Maybe they don't celebrate the 4th of July.

14 posted on 07/04/2006 7:09:44 PM PDT by USNBandit (sarcasm engaged at all times)
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i say pull troops out of South Korea and scare those ungrateful South Koreans a little


15 posted on 07/04/2006 7:10:30 PM PDT by 4rcane
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To: NormsRevenge

oooops.


16 posted on 07/04/2006 7:11:02 PM PDT by fella (Respect does not equal fear unless your a tyrant.)
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To: shield
"Ignore them....ignore them....ignore them...."

Hard to do if you live in Japan.

17 posted on 07/04/2006 7:17:53 PM PDT by blam
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To: fella

Shhh...nobody is supposed to know, Roger that, over.


18 posted on 07/04/2006 7:22:51 PM PDT by Hilltop
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To: NormsRevenge
North Korea delivered some unwanted fireworks to the Bush administration...

I think it's time to start calling AP on this kind of stuff every time they do it. The authors here view this development strictly through the lens of domestic American politics and in the role of hostile opposition toward the sitting administration. They are fools.

It is possible that such luminaries as Riechmann, Gearan, Burns and Margasak actually believe in rewarding this sort of behavior on the part of the North Koreans by diplomatic concessions. But not, I suspect, for the good of the world - they advocate that course of action because they know it will serve to weaken the United States and by extension their political enemy, and that any damage to the former they will be able to lay triumphantly at Bush's door and to hell with the consequences.

Why do they still bother to pretend? The AP has arrogated to itself the role of active political opposition. It isn't even a new organization anymore.

19 posted on 07/04/2006 7:30:23 PM PDT by Billthedrill
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To: Hilltop

Ah, fergedaboutit. Just heard it's the NY Times and the MSM lead story for tomorrow complete with blue prints, bill of materails & operators/maintance manual.


20 posted on 07/04/2006 7:33:28 PM PDT by fella (Respect does not equal fear unless your a tyrant.)
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