Excellent analysis as usual, 'Zilla. Do these new missiles have the range and accuracy to hit Tel Aviv or Jerusalem? If they manage to strike those areas what do you forsee as the IDF reactions?
Also, what do you make of the apparent schism between MOSSAD and the Military Intelligence apparatus? MOSSAD says that Hezbollah has not been significantly degraded, while the military insists that the terrorist infrastructure has been greatly impacted by ground and air operations...that perhaps as much as 50% of the organization has been taken out. What do you see as the potential political fallout inside the government if this squabble continues? Will it impact operations? Myself, I tend to believe MOSSAD. I figure the military is engaging in classic CYA rhetoric. If MOSSAD is correct, then any expansion on the ground is bound to get a whole lot bloodier.
Final question: Do the Israeli people have the stomach to go the distance. This has the potential of being much bigger than any of the conflicts in the '60's or at any other time since 1948. Especially if Iran and Syria decide to play, too.
The Zelzal-2 has more than enough range, it is essentially a slightly smaller version of the old soviet FROG rocket. Current concerns regarding the use of this rocket is that Hezbollah will fire it from the n. Bekaah valley, then scoot the launchers over the border into Syria. Israel will have no other options other than to strike into Syria. Syria, however, is in no position to challenge Israel militarily IMHO. They lost their major supplier when the USSR broke up, half of their air force cannot fly, and the pilots don't have the flight time available necessary for advanced combat training. Ground units are in similar poor shape. IF Israel has to strike into Syria at Hezbollah targets, the best that Syria could do is try to save face.
Also, what do you make of the apparent schism between MOSSAD and the Military Intelligence apparatus? MOSSAD says that Hezbollah has not been significantly degraded, while the military insists that the terrorist infrastructure has been greatly impacted by ground and air operations...that perhaps as much as 50% of the organization has been taken out.
I see this as a serious lack of leadership by the PM. I tend to think MOSSAD is more correct. The IDF incursion into Lebanon recently discovered how deeply dug in Hezbollah is. BDA from IAF is probably too generous and the rate of rocket fire has resumed previous levels. Olmert is losing this thing by holding back. IDF has lost face in that a smaller Hezbollah force has held its own for so long. Now IDF has lost some tactical advantage.
Final question: Do the Israeli people have the stomach to go the distance. This has the potential of being much bigger than any of the conflicts in the '60's or at any other time since 1948. Especially if Iran and Syria decide to play, too.
I think they do, public opinion seems high that this is the right thing to do. However, Olmert's numbers are falling because it seems he is holding back and is afraid of international opinion. For once the international community is FOR Israel, but he is spineless and IMHO is trying to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory with his mishandling of the conflict.