Israel At War
I’m back and the situation is largely unchanged. Rockets continue to fall on northern and southern Israel while IAF bombs away at Hezbollah targets throughout Lebanon.
24-hour forecast
Expect more heavy targeting as the IDF exploits the operational intelligence collected from the Hezbollah bunker in Bint Jbail. Ground attacks using this same intelligence will also be conducted, but as has already been seen, Hezbollah’s ground forces are far better trained than IDF has given them credit for. Hezbollah will continue to target northern Israel, for now avoiding targeting deeper areas such as Tel Aviv.
Hezbollah’s War Preparations Were Extensive
Hezballah’s war preparations were extensive in the six years following Israel’s departure from southern Lebanon. Many of these preparations were a ‘surprise’ for the IDF and have cost them. For example, south Lebanon was divided into 176 combat squares controlled from 40 scattered command bunkers and weapons caches. Hezbollah fighters were/are also equipped with advanced night vision devices and capabilities that surprised IDF forces during the fight for Bint Jbail. During that battle, they showed the capability to maneuver on the IDF in company – sized units, an advanced tactic that hasn’t been displayed by a terrorist force. This, combined with the advanced rockets and missiles used indicate that they’ve been waiting for this moment for a long time.
Increased Syrian Military Readiness
Israeli intelligence sources said the regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad has placed the military on alert. The sources said Syrian infantry commandos, armored units and anti-aircraft batteries have been ordered to launch preparations for an Israeli strike. Syrian television for the first time since the '80's has started broadcasting Syrian military marches and nationalistic songs.
UN Observation Post Hit
The MSM is lambasting Israel on this but overlook something simple as this:
It was also reported that Hezbollah fired from the vicinity of four UN positions at Alma ash Shab, Tibnin, Brashit, and At Tiri.
Hezbollah Setbacks
Hezbollah has lost control of its strategic southern base at Bint Jbail – an area described by the Israeli military as a "Hezbollah capital" – and has suffered dozens of fighters killed or captured, some of them high-ranking, although the terror group also killed eight Israeli troops in an ambush.
Hezbollah was reported to have suffered 150 killed as of this morning, and another 40 killed in today's action after fighting "gun battles at point-blank range." The Hezbollah bunker in Bint Jbail was taken nearly intact. Hezbollah attempted to destroy the equipment in the bunker, but was not successful in destroying it all, according to an intelligence source. Abu Jaafar, the Hezbollah commander in southern Lebanon, may have killed himself rather than being captured.
The Israeli troops seized Hezbollah computers, documents and monitoring devices used to observe the Israeli border, in addition to the "electronic surveillance equipment, weapons and communication devices made in Iran" which was reported yesterday. The bunker served as the equivalent of a Hezbollah headquarters and command and control center for the southern border.
Hezbollah Leadership Balance and Weakening
Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah is so critical to the success of Hezbollah, that if he's killed, the whole organization may fall apart. Although on paper the movement has clear lines of authority, and a defined order-of-succession, if you take a close look at Nasrallah's henchmen, you realize that most of them are pretty much the ordinary run of uninspiring Arab thugs. As none of them comes near Nasrallah in either brains or charisma (in a Moslem way), they would most likely begin squabbling among themselves if Nasrallah got killed. Iran has sent lots of advisers and technical experts to Lebanon, but none of these could expect to lead Hezbollah, largely because all Lebanese are touchy about foreign influence. Although the two decades of Syrian occupation favored Hezbollah, and thus Shias in general, it was still foreign occupation. And it's no secret that Syria considers large parts of eastern Lebanon as territory that should be part of Syria. Iran doesn't like depending so much on one guy, but they don't have much choice. Nasrallah, like most Arab strongmen, sees the elimination of any likely successors as an excellent method for avoiding getting deposed.
http://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htlead/articles/20060727.aspx
Nasrallah Meets in Damascus
Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah was to visit Damascus on Thursday to meet with Syrian President Bashar Assad and the head of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, Ali Larijani, the Kuwaiti daily newspaper Al-Seyassah reported. The report, which quoted Syrian sources, said Nasrallah arrived in dressed in civilian clothes, not his normal clerical garb. According to the report, Nasrallah is scheduled to meet with Iran's chief nuclear negotiator, Ali Larijani and perhaps with Syrian President Bashar Assad.
Buffer Zone
Israel wants to establish a 1.2-mile-wide strip in south Lebanon that will be free of Hezbollah guerrillas, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said Wednesday, giving the dimensions of a new "security zone" for the first time.
However, Israel's government decided Thursday against expanding its offensive against Hezbollah but called up at least 30,000 troops to begin training for duty in Lebanon.
Al-Zawahri Speaks Again
Al-Qaida's No. 2 leader issued a worldwide call Thursday for Muslims to rise up in a holy war against Israel and join the fighting in Lebanon and Gaza until Islam reigns from "Spain to Iraq." Portions of the video were aired on Al Jazeera, and are a continuation of a series of audio/video messages he has put out this year. Earlier messages were seen as probable “go” messages that resulted in major attacks within 30 days of the message. This trend has not been continued with these messages, perhaps indicating that AQ is aware that we are aware of the pattern, thus are trying to mix it up to disguise any real ‘go’ order.