Posted on 06/28/2006 10:22:16 AM PDT by Lunatic Fringe
02:05 Israeli naval vessels off coast fire at open areas in northern Gaza (Reuters)
02:02 Qassam rocket lands in open field in western Negev, no injuries (Israel Radio)
01:38 IAF fires missile at road in southern Gaza Strip, no casualties (AP)
You GO flyboys!
I wish they dropped some snakes and nape.
What a great response by the Israelis. How about an encore so Assad has to change his knickers again.
Well what do you think now, doesn't look like Hamas is playing the victim role, they just announced they executed that 18 yr old settler. Gets more and more interesting
I'm thinking they're frantically searching for a third party to mediate the dispute, and handle the return of the soldier, and we'll see somebody jump in here within the next 24 hours.... possibly Egypt. The Palis can them claim victory when the IDF leaves. I have a pretty strong suspicion the IDF isn't going to leave completely, though.
I'm also thinking the kidnapped youth was probably dead some time ago. With the convoluted relationships between the various factions, it's always hard to figure out how much of the activity of one particular group is dictated from the top, and how much is freelancing. And, of course, the terrorists count on that deniability to protect themselves. Seems to me the Israelis are playing it the right way by simply treating Hamas's top officers as if they're in charge, whether they are or not.
How do you read things?
Here's my read. Meshal's boys (and there might be quite a few of them, maybe 1/4 to 1/2 of Hamas) have the soldier. Meshal has no intention of letting him go. He thinks he is safe/immune up there in Damascus. Meanwhile, the rest of Hamas is pleading with Meshal to release the soldier as they see things a little differently than Meshal as they sit there in Gaza ;)
I see this situation getting difused if Hamas gets on the same page and negotiates the soldiers release. I see this thing getting potentialy real ugly under the following limited set of circumstances:
1)Meshal keeps calling the shots and no release of the soldier or the death of the soldier and one of the following
a) Hamas has some success in inflicting casualites on either the Israeli force in Gaza or manages to kill some Israelis in Israel proper by either Kassam, suicide bombing, etc. OR
b) Israel goes after Meshal in Syria and Syria decides (albeit unwisely) to retaliate OR
c) Hizbullah launches a couple of lucky Kaytushas and kills some Israeli citizens
What's your take on how this plays out
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?t=202311
maybe i should have added chemical weapons as option D., you know as much as I love Bibi, maybe having Olmert in there right now isn't such a bad idea, as Bibi would probably be fueling the Jerichos and radioing the Dolphin class subs with visions of glass parking lots in his mind. Maybe i'm crazy, but these aren't the actions of a group "frantically searching for a third party to mediate the dispute, and handle the return of the soldier"
Another day of bloviation and posturing, a mediated truce, then the Israelis leave part of the strip, but keep the areas from which the rockets are being launched.
But I agree the potential for things to take an unplanned turn is high.
For what it's worth i think you are right, something will get worked out and there will be a cease fire within the next day or two (80-90% probability), but indulge me, if this thing goes down all the way how do you think it happens. It's not every day where there is the potential for a regional war to break out ;)
That's the issue that points to some sort of accomodation being found, because all the alternatives are pretty draconian. I doubt that the Israelis are going to want to go through the whole experience of being occupiers again, so something along the line of a cordon and sweep process, with anyone with even the possibility of being a terrorist being incarcerated, the obvious terrorists being imprisoned, and an announcement made that any of the other detainees can leave if they wish to move to some non-Gaza Palestinian territory, or to any other country that wants them. The few who weren't incarcerated would be on an extremely strict probation, with instant sanctions for being involved in any way with terrorist activities. The result would be more refugee camps, somewhat more penal in nature, but it would be clear to the world that the only reason they're locked up is that there's no other country that wants them.
Obviously, that'd be the death of the great 'Palestinian Independence' experiment, but the reality is that they don't have a society that's sufficiently well formed to function with the level of responsibility that a nation-state must have to get along in the world.
I just don't see any solution to the problem that doesn't involve Israel having to act like a heavy-handed parent dealing with a bunch of unruly kids. Tough love's about it, and that'll be universally decried by the rest of the world, but we're at a 'so what?' stage.
And....
FWIW, I don't see it going regional. Too many militarily weak governments with too much to lose.
Over to you.
As an aside it looks like the capitulation may be starting from the Hamas side asking for the UN to intervene http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?t=202311&page=2
i'm still undecided about what i think the israelis are going to do with Gaza in the long term, but i tend to think if this situation gets dragged on much longer we might see some type of limited reoccupation, at least to prevent Kassam firings at Serdot. If this situation resolves itself quickly, I think that spineless %^$^%(&)^ Olmert will probably give the Gazans another chance, only to have to do this all over again.
What i'd like to see happen is some special ops action in Syria on Meshal and his cronies, i still think he is the catalyst to this whole thing (and something tells me Arma-ima-nutjub from Iran may be pulling some strings too)
In any event i don't think (at least in the short term) we'll see any type of conventional regional war out of all this, but i do see the slim chance of an exhange of Jerichos, Shiabs, FROGS or SCUDS in a worst case scenario. But that's the thing, if those missles start flying around regionally, all bet's are off. Wars have started over less.
Good ol' Fatah... afraid that Hamas is going to get all the 'street cred'... is getting in on the action.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1657488/posts?q=1&&page=1#1
Re: Lesser things wars start over, see "soccer war".
ah yes, nothing like good ol' Arab infighting. I must say though, something about this whole thing just doesn't sit right with me, i think it ends bad; who knows though it may be just something i ate
"Message to GWB et al: Watch how it's done."
Bump to that. And stay the f out of the way.
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