Posted on 06/28/2006 8:43:14 AM PDT by John Jorsett
I attended a social event last weekend, at which the guests were Republican/ conservative activists of varying degrees of intensity. Among the attendees were a current Southern California congressman, a former GOP state chairman, a couple of GOP nominees for statewide offices, a couple of county chairmen, some technician types, a few finance committee types, and so on.
I tell you this not to drop names (as I told Lady Thatcher a few weeks ago, I simply hate name droppers ... ahem) but rather to give you a feel for the kind of folks who were there, necessary to understand the significance of the general mood among the revelers ... which was sunny optimism. Had this group gathered in early May, I suspect the attitude would have been gloom and doom. Six weeks later — in a manageably-sized crowd of 50 or so in an informal backyard setting that afforded everyone a chance to talk with almost everyone else — the considered judgment was that fortune is smiling upon the GOP statewide ticket.
The one person I feel free in quoting, Tom Del Becarro (the energetic and super- competent chairman of Contra Costa County) summed up the governor’s race at the moment succinctly and memorably; “low-charisma and high-tax Angelides versus high- charisma and low-tax Schwarzenegger.” You don’t need to be Nostradamus to predict the winner of a contest played out on those terms.
Angelides is the choice of the hardest of the Democrat hard core ... and virtually nobody else. Had the Primary turnout been 35 percent, instead of 28 percent, he would have lost to Steve Westley, a Democrat with exactly four years political experience, 18 months of which he spent glued to Arnold Schwarzenegger’s hip. Angelides, who has labored decades in the Democrat vineyards, was able to capture only 48 percent of the vote and garnered a majority in only seven counties.
Additionally,the state’s two top Latino politicians are clearly rooting for a Schwarzenegger victory, though it’s unlikely either will openly endorse the governor. L.A. Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa sees the mayor’s office as a stepping stone to running for governor, which in turn he sees as a launch pad for a bid at vice president — at least. A newly-elected Gov. Angelides throws a major monkey wrench in those plans. A re-elected, term-limited Schwarzenegger fits them perfectly.
As for Assembly Speaker Fabian Nuñez, he not only is Villaraigosa’s close personal friend, but, mindful of legislative term limits, sees himself as following his pal into L.A. City Hall as his successor, a plan that also depends on a Schwarzenegger victory. Unsurprisingly, Nuñez and Villaraigosa have made no secret of their non-enthusiasm for their Party’s gubernatorial nominee.
And, between them, Nuñez and Villaraigosa command a large, loyal following among Hispanic voters. If the word goes out that a good Hispanic Democrat can vote for Schwarzenegger, the effect would be disastrous for an already struggling Angelides campaign.
This, in turn, would sow chaos and disruption through the entire Democrat state ticket and infrastructure, destabilizing efforts to coordinate activities. Each statewide campaign would race for the lifeboats, caring only that the statewide nominee going under with the SS Angelides not be them.
Democrats haven’t faced this situation since 1966 when another L.A. mayor, Sam Yorty, received more than a million Democrat Primary votes against incumbent Pat Brown. After the Primary, Yorty made no secret he preferred a victory for the actor/GOP nominee for governor. Said actor went on to lead a GOP statewide sweep of all constitutional office but one.
I asked 8 to 10 folks their governor’s race predictions. All expected a Schwarzenegger victory (I know, not exactly stop the presses news, given the crowd), but victory margin predictions ranged from 5 to 13 percent, averaging about 9 to 10 percent. Again: quite a turnaround from only a few weeks ago. And these are not Pollyannas; they are seasoned political operatives.
Of course, even a large-margin top-of-the-ticket victory won’t guarantee down-ticket success. But it is usually sine qua non (for UCLA graduates, that means absolutely necessary) for lower-race nominees to stand a chance. Given an inherently-strong slate of GOP down-ticket nominees, a Schwarzenegger victory of anything more than 5 points should be accompanied by strong down-ticket showings.
’Tis early in the general election season, of course, and lots will happen before November. But right now, California Republicans and conservatives are feeling their oats, albeit tentatively. That far off rumbling could be the start of a political tsunami.
McClintock's chances in the Lt. Gov. race are getting better and better. Sounds like McClintock vs. Villaraigosa in the 2010 gubernatorial race (hopefully with McClintock running as the incumbent governor after Arnold having resigned in January of that year in order to run for the Senate against Barbara Boxer).
Could be but when sees Arnold not, not dealing with border illegals, one wonders if his own Conserv base will vote for him. Of course, Phil is such a lefty wussy idiot, that not to vote for Arnold would be committing political suicide. The Assembly and State Senate will go very, very Dem unfortunately but Tom Mc might just win.
This is the best chance the GOP has for gaining some ground out there. Not so much for Arnold being the "best" but because Angelides is such a lefty people will literally be forced to vote for Arnold and hopefully pull a few more Rs along with him
As I've stated earlier, the best scenario for McClintock is to win the Lt Governorship while Ah-nold goes down to defeat to Angelides. With Phil, recall won't be far off, and McC moves up (or even if it doesn't, he'll prove such a disaster that the internecine 2010 'Rat primary battle between Phil and Aztlan Tony V. will ensure McC comes out on top). I don't believe McC can win the '10 election to succeed Ah-nold, as we are well aware of the record of Conservatives attempting to succeed RINO Governors.
I don't believe McC can win the '10 election to succeed Ah-nold, as we are well aware of the record of Conservatives attempting to succeed RINO Governors.
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depends. If not then, When?
(Denny Crane: "Every one should carry a gun strapped to their waist. We need more - not less guns.")
Ping!
If McClintock is the incumbent, or if he is running against Villaraigosa (who would not do well outside of LA and the Bay Area), I think McClintock might break the curse.
Sadly, perhaps never. Unless, as pointed out, that McC becomes Governor if Ah-nold resigns, he might hold the office as the incumbent, but I hold out little hope of any other scenario as long as Ah-nold still sits in the office and he has to run to succeed him. Aside from Rhode Island recently, Conservatives almost never succeed RINO Governors.
Lots of indies out here.. lol
I am hoping we can outlive the cats and can retire in Vegas in a few years myself ..
Remember they are both MEChA members
Excellent post. But what is that Saracino dude smoking? The voter rolls of LACAland are so swollen with dead, non-existent, illegal alien, and felonious, triple-dippers that SOCAL could put Lassie in office on the Democrat ticket.
IMHO, Villaraigosa and Nuñez agree that this should be and soon will be a Latino-run state. Boxer and Feinstein, both aging Jewish matrons who have a completely tin ear when it comes to Latino concerns, hardly fit into that category, and neither does der Oestreicher Schwarznegger, or Angelides (el griego). They will be bumped off one by one.
Tactically, Villaraigosa and Nuñez are both smart enough (unlike their compatriot Bustamante, whose Boxer-like IQ will never reach room temperature) to let favored Republicans do the dirty work for a (short) while. They are definitely also smart enough to get underground money in from Mexico, where candidates for the presidency have more money than Bush and Kerry spent combined. And in cash.
Fasten your seat belt. It's going to be a bumpy decade!
Excellent post. But what is that Saracino dude smoking? The voter rolls of LACAland are so swollen with dead, non-existent, illegal alien, and felonious, triple-dippers that SOCAL could put Lassie in office on the Democrat ticket.
IMHO, Villaraigosa and Nuñez agree that this should be and soon will be a Latino-run state. Boxer and Feinstein, both aging Jewish matrons who have a completely tin ear when it comes to Latino concerns, hardly fit into that category, and neither does der Oestreicher Schwarznegger, nor Angelides (el griego). They will be bumped off one by one.
Tactically, Villaraigosa and Nuñez are both smart enough (unlike their compatriot Bustamante, whose Boxer-like IQ will never reach room temperature) to let favored Republicans do the dirty work for a (short) while. They are definitely also smart enough to get underground money in from Mexico, where candidates for the presidency have more money than Bush and Kerry spent combined. And in cash.
Fasten your seat belt. It's going to be a bumpy decade!
Sure you want to go to Vega$ ? That's awfully rodent-infested. Why not move to where everyone in California (or at least your businesses) are moving to... right here in Tennessee. ;-D
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