Posted on 06/26/2006 7:03:57 PM PDT by Extremely Extreme Extremist
Tuesday, Utahns all over the state will be heading to their new electronic voting machines.
Tuesday is primary day in Utah and the hottest contest is in Utah's third congressional district.
There, two republicans - incumbent Chris Cannon and challenger John Jacob - have been battling it out over the issue of immigration.
This race is also attracting national attention because it's viewed as a barometer of how the immigration issue sits with voters; One candidate is accusing the other of being too soft on the issue.
Monday's debate aired on KNRS 570 AM, ABC 4's sister radio station.
Recent polls show Cannon with a slight edge, but with enough undecided voters to keep Jacob within striking distance. At this point, pollsters believe the race is too close to call.
Yes, I think the election has become more about sending a message, as opposed to any of the gritty little details, and that in the end, may or may not push Jacob over the top, although probably not. As a wild speculative guess, I give Jacob about a 20% chance to win. Beyond sending a message, which of course does have importance, will Jacob have any importance about anything? No.
You never "send messages" in elections. You elect representatives who have the responsibility of the vast Federal bureaucracy on their heads. The only way you can "send a message" in an election is in a nonbinding referendum.
And it is certainly the business of Utah voters. I think you will find that the anti-Cannon support was quite overblown.
Kinda like the juggernaut that was the Jim Gilchrist candidacy.
I don't think it matters who I support. I can't vote in Utah's elections.
Make a deal with the devil? Nope. Just that hope springs eternal. Making a sacrificial lamb out of a congressional seat.
The rest of you taking this personally is actually quite funny.
Exactly!
Torie, much of this 'harping' is due to the anti-immigration people painting Cannon supporters as "open borders". None of us are. Nor is Cannon.
Hell yes I take it personally. Jacobs is just a hapless stooge to Tom Tancredo who is making a career of stabbing great conservatives in the back in his quest to be top dog in congressional internal politics. He is a snake. I am more interested inn retaining conservatives in the GOP not purging them for Tancredo stooges.
That is a very nice post of yours. Very informative.
I think in the final analysis the message it will send isn't the one the border folks are hoping for. Will it bring into focus their issue or their inability to impact an election despite their best efforts?
Message sending can be quite important, and effective. It made Joe McCarthy into a natonal figure, who was feared, when he bagged some senator from Maryland, and caused him to lose, back before rocks cooled. I thought Gilchirst had zero chance of winning, and so posted (although I thought he had a remote chance of helping the Dem get elected, which of course did not happen, with the large margin of failure by team Gilchirst and the Dem in part, but only in part, because Gilchirst got some Dem votes in the General). Jacob is not in that category.
Amen.
And as for impact, they'll spin it into "how close they got". They'll never win, thankfully, but they won't go away.... Too much money to be made!
I think if Jacob runs close it will have an impact (particularly given that to most on the fruited plain, Jacob seems to be quite the empty vessel kook, and so it must have been the immigration issue that propelled him forward), but of course an outright win by Jacob would have a far greater impact.
Even if he squeaks out a win, the war isn't over by a long shot. The day after the election he will be challenged afresh. Conservatives and party faithful in the Third District will not rest until he is out of the game for good.
That is exactly why Hastert has decided to punt the issue. He can read polls and the public is more inclined to support Bush's stance but Hastert knows that the borderbots would go crazy if a bill like the Pence bill was passed and signed. So he is just going to allow the status quo to continue. If Tancredo had his way the GOP would never have more than 10% of the Hispanic vote and Hastert know that.
Jacob has more sense than you do.
Didn't they try that with the Bilbray campaign?
How ya doing JC? What's shakin'? Best.
It would be the most cruel case of poetic justice to see Tancredo lose in November due to his lack of attention to his own district.
It is a statistical dead heat with the difference being the margin of error. That is simply amazing given that Cannon has the weight of the establishment Republican apparatus and the President behind him. That and he's outspending Jacob by at least 2 to 1. That's what you get when you are a Republican in a strong Republican district and you vote for amnesty every chance you get and then you lie about it to your consituents.
Well, I guess he would have to, wouldn't he?
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