Reports earlier this year of the death of the Republican congressional majority in Washington may have been premature, but the GOP remains on its sickbed heading into the busy summer campaign season, new polling numbers from Zogby Interactive show.

But while Democrats appear to have the upper hand in Senate races, the GOP has a chance to steal two key races for governor. Freshmen Democrats Rod Blagojevich of Illinois and Jennifer Granholm of Michigan are both in trouble, deadlocked against GOP challengers who have climbed to near-parity. Meanwhile, in California, first-term Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is showing new signs of life.

Control of a state's governor's mansion is thought to help candidates in a presidential election, and Illinois and Michigan could play key roles in the 2008 race for the White House.

In the closely watched battle for control of the U.S. Senate, GOP incumbents Mike DeWine of Ohio and Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania remain in serious jeopardy of losing their seats, New Jersey finds incumbent Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez statistically tied with Republican challenger Tom Kean Jr., leading the Republican scion by a 41% to 40% margin.

Source: Zogby Interactive survey of 792 likely voters statewide, conducted June 13 through 19, 2006. MOE +/- 3.6 percentage points.

Meanwhile, incumbent Republican Senators Jim Talent of Missouri, Jon Kyl of Arizona, and John Ensign of Nevada, all of whom were once mentioned as vulnerable to challenges this year, all appear to be holding their leads. At least one Republican seat once thought not in play appears surprisingly vulnerable, however, with Memphis Democrat Harold Ford, Jr. within striking distance against the Republican field in the battle for the Tennessee seat currently held by retiring Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist.

In the nation's gubernatorial contests, meanwhile, Blagojevich, who faces a stiff challenge from Illinois Treasurer Judy Baar Topinka, a moderate Republican who prevailed in a crowded primary field to take on the first-term incumbent, holds a tenuous three-point lead, but is far below the 50% mark in his race for reelection. Worse for the incumbent, though, is that his lead has been cut in half since late March. He is now leading Baar Topinka by a 41% to 38% margin, and his lead falls within the poll's margin of error - a signal his campaign may be in trouble.

Granholm, whose election four years ago as Michigan's first woman governor met great fanfare and marked her as a rising Democratic star, narrowly leads Amway heir Dick DeVos by a 48% to 46% margin. DeVos has surged from a ten-point deficit in January to a statistical dead heat just over four months from Election Day.

Source: Zogby Interactive survey of 968 likely voters statewide, conducted June 13 through 19, 2006. MOE +/- 3.2 percentage points.

That two Democratic governors find themselves in serious electoral jeopardy comes as unwelcome bad news for Democrats expecting big gains in the fall's elections. And, with Republican resiliency in some Senate contests, plus the cliffhanger election in New Jersey, early projections of major Democratic gains now appear in question. While the numbers still show likely net gains for the Democrats, the latest round of polling shows Democrats playing defense in unexpected places, while Republicans identified as vulnerable are moving out of the danger zone.

Nowhere is that shift more evident than in California. There, Schwarzenegger has regained the momentum in the contest for control in Sacramento. With the Democratic primary victory of the lackluster Phil Angelides, the state treasurer who has been derided as "wonkish" and a "nerd" by blogs and political pundits, Schwarzenegger has seemingly turned the race around. While Angelides led the body builder-turned actor-turned politician in hypothetical match-ups before the primary, the two are now deadlocked, and momentum seems to be on the incumbent's side.

Source: Zogby Interactive survey of 1370 likely voters statewide, conducted June 13 through 19, 2006. MOE +/- 2.7 percentage points.

The online survey was conducted June 13 through 19, 2006, with polling in 25 key states. The margin of error and number of respondents for each statewide poll is given with the above tables. The full data from the surveys is offered to subscribers at zogby.com, and data on key races is released first in the online edition of the Wall Street Journal.

In the primary, I no-voted the Austrian and wrote in McClintock. Felt very good. Our family (7) will not be voting for the Austrian in the general. We will NOT be voting for that left wing puke, Angelides, but simply leaving the position blank, in effect no-voting the office. You might consider doing this too, rather than actually casting a vote for a (D) scumbag like Angelides.

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I don't intend to let anyone disenfranchise me. Schwarzenegger's Democrat operatives know that few GOP conservative's will be voting for him, regardless of who the Democrats run against him. He's deliberately put his finger in our collective eye because from his perspective, there's no consequence.

If the Democrat wins in November, and Schwarzenegger loses, it'll be because I helped make it happen. If Schwarzenegger wins, it'll be because he was right, i.e. GOP conservatives "have no choice" but to vote for him, regardless of how far left he moves politically.

Every GOP voters who sits home in November and allows Schwarzenegger to coast into office is responsible for putting him there. The only way to get him out of office is to vote for a candidate who has a viable chance to beat him, and that unfortunately, will be the leading Democrat.

I helped recall Gray Davis (financially, and via signature collection efforts), and helped elect Arnold in his stead. Arnold has betrayed every GOP voter in California. It's up to us to remove him, and the only viable means of making that happen is to vote for the Democrat. If you're serious about making a difference, you won't let Arnold "own" your vote by default, i.e. by refusing to vote in November. Kick his a$$ out of Sacramento by voting for his opponent. Do something meaningful with your vote, and no, a token 3rd party vote won't mean anything, either.

I'll be glad to start gathering signatures for the Democrat's recall the day after the election. We can just leave the "cause" blank; within six months he or she will have enacted retroactive taxes, signed an executive order authorizing gay marriage, outlawed private schools, outlawed private ownership of guns, declare California a Mexican state, etc. and etc.. It won't take long; the Democrats always revert back to true form when they think they "own" polical power.

SFS

My recommendation. Work against the liberals in the CAGOP, bite the bullet when the Democrats win in November and then wrestle back control of a lost party when Sundheim, Wilson and their New Majority financiers rush to escape the sinking ship. I'll be waiting to throw them an anchor.

I'd certainly like to see a conservative elected governor in California in 2010 but don't see any Democrat alternatives and I'm certain that Wilson and Sundheim will pull the rug out from under Senator McClintock just before the election which puts a solid conservative out of public service and out of the public eye.

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The CA GOP is screwed. Our fearless leader has hired all Democrats to run his administration, i.e. the same Democrats WE WORKED TO RECALL when we booted Gray Davis.

The only meaningful thing to do in November is to get Schwarzenegger out of office!! As long as he's governor, there IS NO VIABLE California GOP. As long as he's governor, he OWN'S the CA GOP.

Vote for the Democrat, unless perhaps, some independent starts polling at 40% or higher. Use your vote, your franchise for some meaningful purpose. Dump Schwarzenegger and his RINO/Democrap buddies in November.

Will it be disasterous to have a real Democrat in the governor's office? Certainly. But electing Schwarzenegger will only be worse, because he will be claiming a mandate, and very shortly after the election, a NATIONAL mandate for everything he does in your name.

I'm not some Democrat Underground/KOS "poser" folks. I'm speaking seriously. The CA GOP needs to get Schwarzenegger out of Sacramento ASAP, along with his Gray Davis and Pete Wilson buddies. As repulsive as this may be, VOTING FOR THE DEMOCRAT is the only way we can deny Schwarzenegger a mandate for pushing California, and the national GOP hard left politically.

Vote for Phil Angelides

Democrat for Governor!

Then recall his Marxist ass out of Sacramento twelve months later.

SFS

I have no problem voting for a Democrat, if that Democrat is conservative. I do have a big problem voting for a liberal or socialist regardless of party registration. Angelides is a very liberal businessman who may, in fact, turn into a Greek Ron Dellums once in office.

I'd have to have a lot more incentive to vote for Angelides than either the simplistic he'll screw up or the vague notion of then we can recall his ass. Once a dog bites you you don't continue feeding it. You dispose of it. Immediately.

Along the difficult path of getting rid of a popular spokesman for some really sinister folks, I'll make a selection for governor, maybe even a write-in, resurrecting dead heroes. It won't be either Angelides or a European liberal with dual citizenship.

"If conservatives surrender their franchise both parties win. If conservatives vote for a liberal Republican not only would the state suffer, but liberals would continue their death grip on the CAGOP party apparatus. If conservatives vote for the little socialist weasel, they deserve their fate."

Pretty much the evaluation process I went through just before the primary. Our family (7) will not be casting any votes for that left wing POS, Angelides. I will be no-voting the Austrian, perhaps writing in McClintock again, if only to make me feel better. Steel and Fire and Stone, while I understand what you're doing, and why you are doing it, I am simply unable--mentally or physically--to actually cast a vote for a Rat (unless a rare conservative one), certainly not a despicable little communist like Angelides.

"Work against the liberals in the CAGOP, bite the bullet when the Democrats win in November and then wrestle back control of a lost party when Sundheim, Wilson and their New Majority financiers rush to escape the sinking ship. I'll be waiting to throw them an anchor."

Agree this is by far the best strategy for true conservatives (naturally, the pretend-conservatives on these threads will not buy in). When Dufus Sundheim and Petey jump ship, that will be my rowboat in the water and I will be the one holding the harpoon.

Steel and Fire and Stone, while I understand what you're doing, and why you are doing it, I am simply unable--mentally or physically--to actually cast a vote for a Rat (unless a rare conservative one), certainly not a despicable little communist like Angelides.

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LOL... same thing happened to me during the primary. I thought that I might have a bit of fun and vote for the weakest Democrat (forget "most conservative"; that ain't happening in Kalifornia). In the end, I just left my vote blank.

But again, I won't do what the governor expects me to do, and be a good little obedient conservative GOP'er, and go along with the party "big tent" - as we ALWAYS do. That's how we ended up with Arnold in the first place. Arnold is counting on conservatives staying home, and siphoning off enough Democrats who can't stomach Angelides "reconquistadora" political leanings, to put him back into office.

Look at it this way. The Demo's are so rocked by their hard-left-wing, so badly splintered, that they NEED GOP conservatives to elect them a governor, or Arnold wins by default. So, Arnold will continue to keep stiffing GOP conservatives, moderates, President Bush, and anyone one else with an "(R)" political affiliation after their name. Then he'll claim a national mandate for gay marriage (yes he will, AFTER the election), illegal immigrant "rights", higher taxes, mandatory business controls, and every other "lefty" policy in Gray Davis' play book.

I can't stop this from happening, but I CAN stop it from happening with a man in office with an "(R)" next to his name.

TERMINATE ARNOLD, and his Gray Davis operatives!! It will require YOUR VOTE in protest for the hardest-leftwing Democrap politician since Jerry Brown. Just suck it up, and do it. The look of complete shock on Arnie's face the day after will be priceless, worth the price of your vote.

SFS

"It will require YOUR VOTE in protest for the hardest-leftwing Democrap politician since Jerry Brown. Just suck it up, and do it. The look of complete shock on Arnie's face the day after will be priceless, worth the price of your vote."

As I mentioned above, there is some kind of invisible force which prevents me from actually voting for a Rat. The only way I could possibly do it would be to have that part of my permanent absentee ballot filled out, say, by my son. I figure I would perhaps make it about half way through my explanation for what I wanted him to do at which point he would pronounce me a victim of Alzheimer's, call the paramedics, and have me committed. I could ask my wife, but she would refuse, telling me I must be insane. Looking at the available remainder of the family, it's even worse and I can foresee violence.

So, as much as I empathize with your position and admire your fortitude, it's not for me.

Not yet.

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New Jersey Senator	9-21-05	10-31-05	1-13-06	3-27-06	6-19-06
Menendez (D)	34%	37%	38%	40%	41%
Kean Jr. (R)	43%	41%	43%	40%	40%

Michigan Governor	9-21-05	10-31-05	1-13-06	3-27-06	6-19-06
Granholm* (D)	51%	54%	50%	49%	48%
DeVos (R)	40%	36%	40%	43%	46%

California Governor	9-21-05	10-31-05	1-13-06	3-27-06	6-19-06
Angelides (D)	49%	48%	45%	46%	45%
Schwarzenegger* (R)	41%	41%	41%	41%	45%