Posted on 06/24/2006 11:15:02 AM PDT by FairOpinion
Republican Governor Candidates Mount Strong Challenges
by John Zogby
Posted Jun 23, 2006
Audio commentary by John Zogby available now.
Reports earlier this year of the death of the Republican congressional majority in Washington may have been premature, but the GOP remains on its sickbed heading into the busy summer campaign season, new polling numbers from Zogby Interactive show.
But while Democrats appear to have the upper hand in Senate races, the GOP has a chance to steal two key races for governor. Freshmen Democrats Rod Blagojevich of Illinois and Jennifer Granholm of Michigan are both in trouble, deadlocked against GOP challengers who have climbed to near-parity. Meanwhile, in California, first-term Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is showing new signs of life.
Control of a state's governor's mansion is thought to help candidates in a presidential election, and Illinois and Michigan could play key roles in the 2008 race for the White House.
Democrats Hold the Advantage in Senate Races
In the closely watched battle for control of the U.S. Senate, GOP incumbents Mike DeWine of Ohio and Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania remain in serious jeopardy of losing their seats, New Jersey finds incumbent Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez statistically tied with Republican challenger Tom Kean Jr., leading the Republican scion by a 41% to 40% margin.
|
New Jersey Senator |
9-21-05 |
10-31-05 |
1-13-06 |
3-27-06 |
6-19-06 |
|
Menendez (D) |
34% |
37% |
38% |
40% |
41% |
|
Kean Jr. (R) |
43% |
41% |
43% |
40% |
40% |
Source: Zogby Interactive survey of 792 likely voters statewide, conducted June 13 through 19, 2006. MOE +/- 3.6 percentage points.
Meanwhile, incumbent Republican Senators Jim Talent of Missouri, Jon Kyl of Arizona, and John Ensign of Nevada, all of whom were once mentioned as vulnerable to challenges this year, all appear to be holding their leads. At least one Republican seat once thought not in play appears surprisingly vulnerable, however, with Memphis Democrat Harold Ford, Jr. within striking distance against the Republican field in the battle for the Tennessee seat currently held by retiring Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist.
Dogfights for Governors' Mansions
In the nation's gubernatorial contests, meanwhile, Blagojevich, who faces a stiff challenge from Illinois Treasurer Judy Baar Topinka, a moderate Republican who prevailed in a crowded primary field to take on the first-term incumbent, holds a tenuous three-point lead, but is far below the 50% mark in his race for reelection. Worse for the incumbent, though, is that his lead has been cut in half since late March. He is now leading Baar Topinka by a 41% to 38% margin, and his lead falls within the poll's margin of error - a signal his campaign may be in trouble.
Granholm, whose election four years ago as Michigan's first woman governor met great fanfare and marked her as a rising Democratic star, narrowly leads Amway heir Dick DeVos by a 48% to 46% margin. DeVos has surged from a ten-point deficit in January to a statistical dead heat just over four months from Election Day.
|
Michigan Governor |
9-21-05 |
10-31-05 |
1-13-06 |
3-27-06 |
6-19-06 |
|
Granholm* (D) |
51% |
54% |
50% |
49% |
48% |
|
DeVos (R) |
40% |
36% |
40% |
43% |
46% |
Source: Zogby Interactive survey of 968 likely voters statewide, conducted June 13 through 19, 2006. MOE +/- 3.2 percentage points.
That two Democratic governors find themselves in serious electoral jeopardy comes as unwelcome bad news for Democrats expecting big gains in the fall's elections. And, with Republican resiliency in some Senate contests, plus the cliffhanger election in New Jersey, early projections of major Democratic gains now appear in question. While the numbers still show likely net gains for the Democrats, the latest round of polling shows Democrats playing defense in unexpected places, while Republicans identified as vulnerable are moving out of the danger zone.
Nowhere is that shift more evident than in California. There, Schwarzenegger has regained the momentum in the contest for control in Sacramento. With the Democratic primary victory of the lackluster Phil Angelides, the state treasurer who has been derided as "wonkish" and a "nerd" by blogs and political pundits, Schwarzenegger has seemingly turned the race around. While Angelides led the body builder-turned actor-turned politician in hypothetical match-ups before the primary, the two are now deadlocked, and momentum seems to be on the incumbent's side.
|
California Governor |
9-21-05 |
10-31-05 |
1-13-06 |
3-27-06 |
6-19-06 |
|
Angelides (D) |
49% |
48% |
45% |
46% |
45% |
|
Schwarzenegger* (R) |
41% |
41% |
41% |
41% |
45% |
Source: Zogby Interactive survey of 1370 likely voters statewide, conducted June 13 through 19, 2006. MOE +/- 2.7 percentage points.
The online survey was conducted June 13 through 19, 2006, with polling in 25 key states. The margin of error and number of respondents for each statewide poll is given with the above tables. The full data from the surveys is offered to subscribers at zogby.com, and data on key races is released first in the online edition of the Wall Street Journal.
Click here for a detailed methodology statement on this poll. To subscribe to the Zogby 2006 Battleground Polling Series, go to www.zogby.com.
Support Republican candidates everywhere -- otherwise the Dems win.
For more detail, go to:
http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2006/06/21/spitzer-soars-schwarzenegger-pulls-even/
then click on the
UPDATE: Here are the results of the Battleground States Poll. link in the article, which takes you to an interactive window, where you can check the races for various states.
ROFL. Guess again, Zogby.
Zogby Interactive - even more useless than usual because you'd have to print it out to line the birdcage.
Look at Ohio, Pennsylvania and Tennessee, in the link I gave above -- currently we have R incumbents, but the Dems are ahead in the polls.
Losing 3 Senate seats would really hurt -- it's bad enough as it is, because the Dems keep filibustering everything the R try to do.
Ford is pure Washington inside the beltway crack pipe smoking. Not even near in the game. Family under corruption investigation and he just voted to cut and run in Iraq. Ford is pure "How can I make this sound more exciting then it is" wishful thinking on the part of Junk Media talking heads.
Then there is Minnesota. Here is a Democrat seat in a LOT of trouble. Open Seat, Weaker then crap Democrat candidate, well funded Republican VERY strong Republican Gov up for reelection.
Not in Tennese we do not have a 'rat ahead. Read what he said "Memphis Democrat Harold Ford, Jr. within striking distance against the Republican field". Against the field. The Reps have not united behind a candidate and Ford is BEHIND You have got to quit listening to the enemy pollster. Pure make belive just like his "Kerry in a landslide" election day prediction of Nov 2004. Best the Dems can do is +1 and I suspect Dewine will win in the end. The Democrats in Washington are busy sawing away at the Red State Dems throats with their antics.
"DeVos gains every day, Jenny is toast."
DeVos-R would be a huge upgrade for Gov. in Mich. Is Stabenow-D up for re election in the Senate? Dump her too.
=====================================================================
I, my wife, and (probably) my two 18 year old kids will not. I'll vote for a Democrat, any Democrat running for the governorship, in opposition to Schwarzenegger. It'll be my first non-GOP-party line vote, and certainly, the first lifetime vote for a Democrat.
I've tried very hard to get through to Schwarzenegger, but his office is like (Senators) Boxer and Finestein; they don't accept calls, email, or letters from the GOP rank and file. I kid you not. Schwarzenegger's entire senior staff consists of new-hire Democrats who used to work for Gray Davis.
If you vote for Schwarzenegger you're voting for a Democrat, and the Dems will be laughing at you all the way to the bank. They'll own the governor's mansion in either case, but with Schwarzenegger, they also have a shill to use in blaming the GOP for every Democrap policy they enact. The GOP in California will not advance one iota until Schwarzenegger is out of there.
SFS
Stabacow and Grandstand are both up for election this year, both will lose.
Who is the GOP challenger to Stabenow in the Mich. race for senate?
Michigan (Primary August 8)
Debbie Stabenow Democratic incumbent
Michael Bouchard Republican challenger, Oakland County Sheriff
Rev. Keith A. Butler Republican challenger, former Detroit councilor
Leonard Schwartz Libertarian challenger
Bret McAtee Constitution Party challenger
Rev. Gerald "Jerry" Zandstra Republican challenger (withdrew, spring 2006)
Nick H. Smith Republican challenger, former U.S. Rep (no candidacy)
Forget zandstra and Smith, the others are running.
Keeping in mind that zombie over polls rank and file rats, these polls look good. I do question the idea that ANY governor's seats are "key" to anything. Because of changes in how political wars are won, whom the is in a given state has little effect on the outcome of presidential races.In his two races W has lost Pa, Wisc. Minn, NY.Ky. Mass with GOP govs. The rat has lost in N.C. La. W.V. Ind. etc. There are more, but you get my point.
In the primary, I no-voted the Austrian and wrote in McClintock. Felt very good. Our family (7) will not be voting for the Austrian in the general. We will NOT be voting for that left wing puke, Angelides, but simply leaving the position blank, in effect no-voting the office. You might consider doing this too, rather than actually casting a vote for a (D) scumbag like Angelides.
Oh man!!! I'm sure glad I didn't miss that great quip!!! Ha Ha Ha!!! ROTHFLMAO... PIMP... GFA!!!
Oh never mind. I thought you were referring to F.O. as "Zogby!" And THAT really struck me funny!!!
If conservatives surrender their franchise both parties win. If conservatives vote for a liberal Republican not only would the state suffer, but liberals would continue their death grip on the CAGOP party apparatus. If conservatives vote for the little socialist weasel, they deserve their fate.
My recommendation. Work against the liberals in the CAGOP, bite the bullet when the Democrats win in November and then wrestle back control of a lost party when Sundheim, Wilson and their New Majority financiers rush to escape the sinking ship. I'll be waiting to throw them an anchor.
I'd certainly like to see a conservative elected governor in California in 2010 but don't see any Democrat alternatives and I'm certain that Wilson and Sundheim will pull the rug out from under Senator McClintock just before the election which puts a solid conservative out of public service and out of the public eye.
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