Posted on 06/22/2006 9:35:05 PM PDT by sukhoi-30mki
Do UK nukes make military sense?
By Rob Watson
Defence and security correspondent, BBC News
There is no doubt Chancellor Gordon Brown has set off a major ideological debate within his own, once avowedly, anti-nuclear Labour Party.
But what are the military arguments for and against Britain retaining an independent nuclear deterrent?
Nuclear submarines are based at Faslane on the Clyde
Perhaps the first question to consider is why this is an issue now.
At the moment Britain has 16 Trident missiles, based on four nuclear submarines, providing a total of 200 warheads.
The problem is that the missiles will reach the end of their operational life by the year 2024 and it is argued by some experts that a decision is needed now to allow enough time to replace the system, if indeed Britain is to retain a nuclear weapons capacity.
The arguments against doing so run something like this:
It is said by some critics Britain would not really have an independent nuclear deterrent because it would rely on the US for operating and maintaining any new system, just as it has with Trident.
And then there is the cost, estimated at anywhere between £12bn and £25bn, which not surprisingly some would rather see spent on things such as schools and healthcare.
The most pointed military argument against replacing Trident however is that it is hard to see Britain ever using a nuclear weapon independent from the US.
The point being that, while it is conceivable to imagine a confrontation with a nuclear-armed North Korea or Iran for example, it is very hard to imagine Britain having to go it alone without the US.
And what use would nuclear weapons be against the asymmetrical threat posed by international or domestic terrorism?
But there are also powerful arguments for it.
What many military analysts believe, including Dr Lee Willett of the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), is that ultimately retaining an independent nuclear weapons system is an insurance policy against the unknown, and a reasonably priced one at that.
With countries like North Korea and Iran presumed to either have or be determined to acquire nuclear weapons and others such as Syria, Egypt and Saudi Arabia nursing such ambitions, Dr Willett argues this is not the time for Britain to be getting out of the nuclear game.
Then there is the political and diplomatic argument - that it is vital for Britain to maintain its big power role in the world, including its permanent seat at the United Nations Security Council and its status within the European Union and with the US.
As to the independence of the deterrent from the US, supporters say though it is true any system would likely be acquired from America, its use, like the existing Trident, would be controlled by Britain.
In many ways these are arguments that have been rehearsed over and over again since nuclear weapons were first invented and proliferated around the world.
Does the possession of a nuclear arsenal deter potential foes from attacking you or is their use so inconceivable as to make them in the end a poor deterrent?
Ummm, yeah. Right. Nice try.
If I were a Brit, I'd sure as heck want to keep nukes. Pooty-poot is intent on resurrecting the soviet empire. Home grown British crazies are allied with Middle East crazies. Can the Brits rely on the U.S. nuke deterrent instead of their own if Tehran slips a suitcase nuke to some nutburgers in London??
We already did, remember?
Well, according to
the movies Britain did kill
a lot of Zulus,
but when up against
tough, First World folks like Germans
you had to call us!
Be reasonable --
India gave you the boot
and Kingsley didn't
even have to call
Steven Seagal for advice!
Other than that thing
where Britain beat up
on China (to sell them drugs!)
Britain's claim to fame
for their "warfare" skills
was a constant, smoldering
draw with tough-guy [!] France . . .
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