Uh oh. This phrase is going to have DUmmies up in arms.
Posted on 06/22/2006 2:39:58 PM PDT by Gothmog
The roller-coaster mood swings of Republican strategists are surging back with growing confidence that the fall elections won't be the disaster for the party that Democrats are predicting.
Buoyed by President Bush's two-week bump up in the polls, a congressional victory in California, and new polling that finds Republicans holding their own or challenging in races Democrats have focused on, some strategists are reviewing their earlier expectations of major losses in the House, Senate, and statehouses.
A recent surprise poll that has Republicans hopeful came in the Michigan gubernatorial race where Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm is now behind GOP challenger Dick DeVos.
Just three months ago Granholm held a 17 percent lead and last fall was up by 23 percent.
But a May EPIC-MRA poll put DeVos ahead 46 percent to 45 percent, and a newer poll has him leading by 8 percent, 48 to 40. "Looks like we may steal a big governorship from the Dems in Michigan!" a Bush adviser e-mailed.
"That would be sweet. Could also be important for '08 and the ability of our GOP nominee to win this state," he added. Democrats, however, are not looking at defeat there, and say that Granholm is just starting to take on DeVos.
Still, the Republicans are not depressed anymore and are "starting to rise to the battle," said a Republican National Committee insider, who explained that last week's trip by President Bush to Iraq and the clearing of Karl Rove in the CIA spy case have boosted GOP spirits.
Some GOP officials, however, warn against too-early celebration. "Things have finally gone our way for two weeks," said a Republican official, "but we don't want to overstate this." The official said GOP strategists are cautious because they fear the expectations for a comeback will rise too high and could be dashed with any unexpected bad news in the coming weeks.
Another said "we've simply gone from being in reverse to being in neutral." Said another, until three weeks ago "there had been an uneasiness in our circles. This gives people a feeling that things are changing, that's all."
And if the challenger won over Chaffee in Rhode Island primary would he lose in the Fall election?
Isn't Rhode Island a pretty liberal state?
good for you ogg, take buddy with you.
The only disaster coming is for the Democrats.
Kerry should keep talking and conditioning his responses in the most complex way he can manage.
Why not? The Democrats always overstate everything!
I never, ever was worried, period!
In the long run, the House and the Senate will stay in GOP hands - no major changes. The Dems may make small gains but they won't make major gains.
Yup, but the problem is that Bush gets ALL the blame, not jenny.
My best friend has not been able to find a job, but would never vote for DeVos.
It reminds me of Lucy holding the football for Charlie Brown.
This isn't 1994 in reverse. It's 1998.
A basically break-even year, with a fair amount of change, but that change netting out overall.
::shaking head::
I understand exuberant moods when good news hits. I understand depression, uneasiness, fury, frustration..during the bad.
What I don't like and refuse to give sway to is basing my predictions and, therefore, actions upon mood swings.
What is so hard to understand here?
Mid-terms are about base turnout. That's it. That simple. So what do you do to generate base turnout? Make them happy. What do you do to the opposition? Attempt to make their base give up.
Where the Republicans have screwed up is that they spent the last two years, for the most part, making their base miserable sucking up to Liberals that will never like them. Gee, that worked swell for them huh?
What's changed in the last few weeks? Well, the House didn't sign up immediately for amnesty. A pro-enforcement candidate won in CA-50 making conservatives believe we may be able to have a shot at averting the disaster the Senate and admin planned. They are back to standing up for the war, and it doesn't hurt that the Prez made a visit and Zarqawi is gone. Hey, they even blocked min wage hikes in the Senate. Only 52 in favor. Six months ago they might have had the 60 to pass it. The House conservatives managed to hold down the pork to only 2 million, as opposed to over 10 mil, over budget. Small victory, but one none the less. a FEW judges are getting through...on the flip side Dems are back to arguing over who has the bigger yellow streak.
What's our lesson boys and girls in D.C.? Stop listening to the NYT's, John McCain and Kos and start listening to the conservatives that got you there and your moods will improve...as will your electoral chances.
There's no question Chafee would lose a REPUBLICAN primary.
The problem is that Democrats can switch to the Republican Party to vote in the primary, and Chafee has been registering them to do just that. That's why he even still has a chance to win it, but if it keeps going as it is even those Dem registrations may not save him.
I predict we lose seats but retain control.
IMO, if they passed an enforcement only bill they'd guarentee gains in both the House and Senate.
If they simply kill amnesty I think they'll hold status quo, which is what I've said for months unlike these useless "experts" that ride the rollarcoaster everyday. :-)
I'd disagree in part with you over the "come home to Bush" aspect. Not quite true. On the WOT, saving a few, no one ever really left among the "base" in their support for the policy.
We're still worlds apart on illegal immigration and that allows friction in this relationship to still stand. But that friction doesn't really matter. So long as his policy doesn't actualize in a passed bill.
I really don't think this election is about him for anyone but Democrats anyway. It's about issues and turnout. And the reason I've never bought the polls or conventional beltway wisdom is that I'm confident conservatives are the majority. Therefore I'm confident the net result will be as conservatives determine it will be. I've always felt, then, not the NYT's, not the alphabet networks and not even John McCain really call the shots. Conservatives do. So it's always come down to whether we're motivated to turnout. If conservative actisvists are motivated to turnout, that translates into millions more votes because they'll man the polls, the GOTV efforts, door to door, etc.. pulling out the needed votes for the Majority.
And that's why conservatives have been screaming bloody murder, and been insulted many times for it, for demanding action from Republicans that WILL induce excitement and high turnout. And, yeah, there has been talk of boycotting the election and the talk has been serious too. But think the arrogant beltway cliques would listen if we weren't serious? Nope. They had to be convinced their butts were on the line to stop pandering to liberals and START making some steps back to the people that brung them, conservative activists, that need something to take to undecideds to convince them to vote Rep. Nancy pelosi ain't going to sell an undecided to vote Rep., and for awhile that was all they were offering.
Now I'm not stating I'm back on the GOP wagon. I'm not. I'm keeping them on a tight leash up till November. We'll see what they do between now and then. But I'm not AS mad as I was three months ago.
Whoops, you're right it is donor. Anyway that is what Michigan is.
I agree with the thought expressed in the article - let's not rush to celebrate - the end of the race is still miles away. Pubbies need to be straining and working their butts off all the way til the end. Pubbies should be thinking in terms of the numbers of dead people who are going to vote Dimocratic; those are part of the numbers that Pubbies need to defeat!!
Could be dyslexia with an occasional backwards "b"?
It always seems the polls get better for the GOP as we get closer to election and the media begins polling registered voters. When they start polling likely voters we win. The rats and their polls win every month except Nov.
(Denny Crane: "Every one should carry a gun strapped to their waist. We need more - not less guns.")
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