Washington Senate: Cantwell (D) Slide Continues

Ramussen Reports ^ | June 21, 2006

[Clintonfatigued]

Thanks largely to her support for the war in Iraq, electoral support for Senator Maria Cantwell (D) has slipped once again—for the fifth survey in a row.

In the latest Rasmussen Reports poll of an increasingly competitive U.S. Senate race, Senator Cantwell now leads former Safeco CEO Mike McGavick (R) 44% to 40%. She led by five points in May, eight in April, thirteen in March, fifteen in January.

[wouldntbprudent]

The delicious thing is (1) how this news must make MRS BILL CLINTON positively pee in her Old Crusty, and (2) how this news encourages John F. Kerry in his embarrassing quest to regain the nomination by prostrating himself to the moonbats.

[Publius]

...but 8% of Democrats now say they would vote for another candidate altogether given a Cantwell-McGavick match-up.

This is the key. The Democratic Party in Washington State is in the very early stages of splintering. The Green Party has put up a former Black Panther who is attracting support from anti-war Democrats.

Lunchbucket "Scoop Jackson" Democrats are backing Cantwell, but Hard Left "Jim McDermott" Democrats are not guaranteeing that they will vote for her.

This is going to end up being a very interesting race, and I expect Election Night to be a real nailbiter.

[Paperdoll]

Believe me, I do not think Cantwell's slide is due to her "support of the Iraq war". After what happened to the Republican candidate for governor in Washington State, after winning it twice, I think the Republican voter will really turn out to vote on this one.

[pissant]

Looks like Santorum might get waxed, so we need to oust Cantwell.

[sionnsar]

Thanks to Publius for the ping.

Say WA? Evergreen State ping

FReepmail sionnsar if you want on or off this ping list.

Ping sionnsar if you see a Washington state related thread.

[doug from upland]

Green Party, Black Panter, yellow streak; now, that's colorful!

[mike70]

Election night will be boring. What will be interesting is how many votes King County Elections will need to manufacture to guarantee Cantwell's victory.

In the 2004 governors race, Gregoire led Rossi by 180,000 in four of king county's 13 COunty COuncil districts, and trailed Rossi in the rest of the state.

There is good evidence that Gregoire's win was tainted (see www.soundpolitics.com)

Cantwell will likely win in the same way.

[LS]

This is one I hadn't factored in when I said we'd gain one seat (net). It's looking worse for Santorum . . . IF the polls are to be believed. But I think we'll gain MN and possibly NJ, so if we get WA, it's a net two.

[Clintonfatigued]

I agree. Also, it's worth noting that Mike McGavick has employed much of the staff which ran Dino Rossi's 2004 Gubenatorial campaign.

[Clintonfatigued]

It's also looking worse for Conrad Burns. I expect that race to fall, also.

[Kuksool]

I never thought this seat was in play. It would be a pleasant surprise if we could pick up the Senate seat. Given WA's blue zone nature, what is causing Cantwell's erosion? Are republicans energized to avenge the stolen election in 2004?

[NeoCaveman]

The easiest Senators to knock off are the freshmen going for term 2

The Democrat freshman class of 2000 is Cantwell (WA), Stabenow (MI), Nelson (NE), Nelson (FL), Clinton (NY).

It was a bad Repub year in 2000, which should helps us out.

Of course I think Clinton and the Nelson(s) are safe.

Watch for Stabenow to fall along with Gov. Granholm once we get to past the primary.

[Doctor Raoul]

Hillary's first fundraiser at her multimillion dollar Whitehaven (yes black Democrats, I said, "Whitehaven") Manse was to help poor little pennyless Cantwell raise money to pay herslf back the millions she spent on buying her Senate seat.

When it comes to helping the disadvantaged, it's poor white liberal former millionaires go to the head of the Hillary empathy line.

[NeoCaveman]

I'm looking at losing PA, MT, and RI, but picking up at least two of the following (WA, MN, NJ, MD, MI).

So I'm at net loss of one.

I'll revise that up a seat if Tommy Thompson decides to run.

[Publius]

First off, the King County Democratic machine stole the 2004 gubernatorial election outright. They didn't even try to hide it, and they had the Mainstream Media outlets working for them 24/7.

I had earlier doubted whether Cantwell's victory over Gorton in 2000 was stolen, but the Democrats' antics in 2004 made me suspect her first victory 6 years ago was stolen.

You have a point. Any close statewide election could be stolen, but people are so ticked off after 2004 that it will be harder to get away with it again.

[91B]

Any chance of picking up Byrd's seat? Or pulling a win in CT if Lieberman is forced to run as an independent by the Kossacks?

[NeoCaveman]

Any chance of picking up Byrd's seat? Or pulling a win in CT if Lieberman is forced to run as an independent by the Kossacks?

In a 3 way race the Republican could possibly win, the Republican governor is very popular and she could have coattails BUT Chris Shays would try to save his own House seat by supporting Lieberman for Senate. In fact, he's already endorsed Lieberman.

As for West Virginia, it has gotten too conservative for Byrd, but he's an institution in that state and will probably occupy that seat until he dies. That's my take, until I see any polls on that one.

[montomike]

Don't count Conrad out. He will win if Montanans see Tester as just another democratic hack for the National Committee.

Tester could be a problem if he shows some independence from the DNC and not let them run his campaign.

The race is already really negative, suprisingly negative. As soon as Tester beat Morrison, Burns ran a commercial congratulating Tester on his victory and how he looks forward to debating him. Then Burns started ripping him for gay marriage, taxes, Iraq, etc.

Its gonna be a real nasty campaign.

If Burns is indicted related to Abramoff...Tester will win.