N. Korean threat activates shield U.S. cites a launch as 'provocative'

Drudgereport.com ^ | June 19,2006 | Drudge Report / Bill Gertz

[edpc]

The Pentagon activated its new U.S. ground-based interceptor missile defense system, Bill Gertz reports in Tuesday's WASHINGTON TIMES, just as officials announced that any long-range missile launch by North Korea would be considered a "provocative act."

Poor weather conditions above where the missile site was located by U.S. intelligence satellites indicates that an immediate launch is unlikely, said officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity.

However, intelligence officials said preparations have advanced to the point where a launch could take place within several days to a month.

Two Navy Aegis warships are patrolling near North Korea as part of the global missile defense and would be among the first sensors that would trigger the use of interceptors, the officials said yesterday.

Gertz reports: The U.S. missile defense system includes 11 long-range interceptor missiles, including nine deployed at Fort Greeley, Alaska, and two at Vandenberg Air Force Base, Calif. The system was switched from test to operational mode within the past two weeks, the officials said.

[garbageseeker]

sorry for the double posting

[garbageseeker]

Bump

[garbageseeker]

By the time airpower does arrive to destroy the artillery would Seoul be a heap of rubble due to the reign of artillery shells? Read my post number 84

[LibertarianInExile]

You made a rather simplistic statement earlier. I wasn't sure if you were unconcerned about those lives, or ignorant of their peril. What you have posted since makes clear that your post was merely intended to emphasize the relative danger Kim is in compared to us. I apologize if my response seemed patronizing--I thought it a point that needed to be made in the event you WERE unaware or unconcerned about these people.

[BIGLOOK]

Yeah, the ROKs rocked.

[garbageseeker]

Kim Il-Jung is an extremely dangerous man and he will do anything to regain the Korean Peninsula under his control. That is why its imperative to stop him.

[GSlob]

"Century"? Unless a cobalt-cased nuke, or large H-bomb, 5-10 yrs at most. Hiroshima is an inhabited city, and has been for a while.

[LibertarianInExile]

"I said that if we hadn't wasted six years with these ridiculous multi-lateral "talks" and negotiations, this wouldn't be happening. This all proves that Bush is right and the only way to stop rogue terrorist nations like this from getting nukes and holding the world hostage with them is to strike first, destroying their nuclear weapons programs before they are producing completed weapons, like in Iraq."

That said, Bush is doing the same sort of timewasting Clinton did in Iran right now. He ain't so right he knows not to repeat the Clinton mistakes. That scares the crap out of me. Kim's goofy and his minions a little spooky, but Iran is full of inspired insaniacs. The longer we wait to blast Iran the longer we give them to get their nukes into the hands of these crazies.

[DannyTN]

"And if we don't? How will Kim know it was not another design failure if we do. I doubt if they have a RADAR that is sophisticated enough to tell what happened to it."

I'm sure the Chinese or the Russians would probably provide him the info.

However, we could test a laser on it. I doubt anybody could tell we did that unless they found the wreckage.

[garbageseeker]

That said, Bush is doing the same sort of timewasting Clinton did in Iran right now. He ain't so right he knows not to repeat the Clinton mistakes. That scares the crap out of me. Kim's goofy and his minions a little spooky, but Iran is full of inspired insaniacs. The longer we wait to blast Iran the longer we give them to get their nukes into the hands of these crazies.

Right

[TexasPatriot8]

Again, if the North used chem and bio weapons, they are putting our nukes on the table. And with the really advanced CIA / NSA satellites we have in orbit with thermal imaging that can also detect metal from natural ground clutter, I don't think the North could have many truly undetected atrillery pieces. But the bottom line is, it is extremely unlikely that North Korea would launch a strike against the South, and our people there, even if we shot down a test missile launch of theirs. They know they would lose. It's far more likely that China would force us into a confrontation over Taiwan, than it is that North Korea would decide to give up their soverignty and be forcably re-unified with South Korea, which is going to happen someday anyway. You can't keep the same people apart forever. And there are far more people in the north that want to join with the south, than the other way around.

[TexasPatriot8]

Eh, it happens. :)

[garbageseeker]

Military Situation on the Korean Peninsula September 12, 2000

The FY2000 National Defense Authorization Act (Section 1233) directs the Secretary of Defense to submit a report on the security situation on the Korean Peninsula. This report provides an assessment of the warfighting capability of the Republic of Korea-U.S. Combined Forces Command when compared to the armed forces of North Korea. It also provides an assessment of the North Korean threat to the Republic of Korea. Finally, it examines the current status and future direction of North Korea’s weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missile programs.


DEMOCRATIC PEOPLES REPUBLIC OF KOREA (DPRK) FORCES INTRODUCTION
North Korea remains the major threat to stability and security in Northeast Asia and is the country most likely to involve the United States in a large-scale war. While the historic summit between the North and South leaders holds the promise of reconciliation and change, no evidence exists of the fundamental precursors for change. There is little or no evidence of economic reform or reform-minded leaders; reduction in military forces; or a lessening of anti-US rhetoric. A decade of steep economic decline has not deterred the North's leaders from allocating precious resources to improving their military forces. The DPRK maintains a dogged adherence to a "military first" policy even against the backdrop of a nation facing severe economic and social challenges.

LEADERSHIP
Less than six years after the death of his father, Kim Jong Il has consolidated power and is firmly in control of North Korea. The leadership continues to focus on its three fundamental themes—regime survival, reunification, and achieving status as a "great and powerful nation." Lacking his father's revolutionary credentials, the North Korean leader relies upon military and security forces to maintain his chokehold on the citizenry. The North Korean leader relies heavily upon military and security forces to maintain his regime. Kim Jong Il sustains regime support by providing resources to key areas at the expense of lower priority sectors of the economy and society. The result is neglect of entire segments of society selected by geography, age, and political reliability. Meanwhile, his inner circle, insulated from the economic and social trauma impacting the lives of ordinary citizens, remains an exclusive group in which relations by blood or marriage, revolutionary ties, and loyalty are the primary prerequisites for power.
MILITARY FORCES
1. The "Military First" orientation has always been the heart and soul of the North Korean regime. It provides the only conceivable means by which the regime can survive and achieve its ultimate security through reunification. The military continues to grow in both conventional and asymmetrical forces with increasing emphasis on the latter. The military provides deterrence, defense, and a massive offensive threat, as well as leverage in international negotiations. The army is much more than just a military organization; it is North Korea's largest employer, purchaser, and consumer, the central unifying structure in the country, and the source of power for the regime.

2. Pyongyang's military goal is to reunify the peninsula by force. North Korea's fundamental war-fighting strategy mandates achievement of surprise, prosecution of a short and violent war, prevention of major United States reinforcement of the peninsula, and negation of the Republic of Korea's mobilization. The North Korean Armed Forces today are the fifth largest in the world. The ground forces, numbering one million active duty soldiers, provide the bulk of the North's offensive war-fighting capability and are the world's third largest army. They are supported by an air force of over 1,600 aircraft and a navy of more than 800 ships. Over 6 million reserves augment the active duty personnel. Seventy percent of their active force, to include 700,000 troops, 8,000 artillery systems, and 2,000 tanks, is garrisoned within 100 miles of the Demilitarized Zone. Much of this force is protected by underground facilities, including over four thousand underground facilities in the forward area alone. From their current locations these forces can attack with minimal preparations.

3. North Korea fields an artillery force of over 12,000 self-propelled and towed weapon systems. Without moving any artillery pieces, the North could sustain up to 500,000 rounds an hour against Combined Forces Command defenses for several hours. The artillery force includes 500 long-range systems deployed over the past decade. The proximity of these long-range systems to the Demilitarized Zone threatens all of Seoul with devastating attacks.

4. Realizing they cannot match Combined Forces Command's technologically advanced war-fighting capabilities, the North's leadership focuses on developing asymmetrical capabilities such as ballistic missiles, special operations forces, and weapons of mass destruction designed to preclude alliance force options and offset our conventional military superiority.

5. The North's asymmetric forces are formidable, heavily funded, and cause for concern. The progress of the North's ballistic missile program indicates it remains a top priority. Their ballistic missile inventory now includes over 500 SCUDs of various types. They continue to produce and deploy medium-range No Dongs capable of striking United States bases in Japan. Pyongyang is developing multi-stage missiles with the goal of fielding systems capable of striking the Continental United States. They tested the 2,000-kilometer range Taepo Dong 1 and continue work on the 5,000 plus kilometer Taepo Dong 2. Pyongyang is one of the world's largest missile proliferators and sells its missiles and technology to anyone with hard currency.

6. In late 1999 North Korea agreed to a moratorium on future missile test firings for the duration of discussions with the US to improve bilateral relations. North Korea publicly reaffirmed that moratorium in June 2000. The US continues to engage North Korea in talks to resolve the threat of North Korean missiles in the region as well as broader concerns with proliferation of North Korean missiles globally. 7. North Korea's Special Operations Forces are the largest in the world. They consist of over 100,000 elite personnel and are significant force multipliers providing the capability to simultaneously attack both our forward and rear forces.

8. North Korea possesses weapons of mass destruction. A large number of North Korean chemical weapons threaten both our military forces and civilian population centers. We assess North Korea is self-sufficient in the production of chemical components for first generation chemical agents. They have produced munitions stockpiles estimated at up to 5,000 metric tons of several types of chemical agents, including nerve, choking, blister, and blood. We assess that North Korea has the capability to develop, produce, and weaponize biological warfare agents, to include bacterial spores causing anthrax and smallpox and the bacteria causing the plague and cholera. While North Korea denies possession of nuclear weapons and has frozen its nuclear program at Yongbyon, we remain concerned the North could revive a weapons production program. The Perry process provides a diplomatic roadmap for addressing that threat as well as the missile threat.

TRANSPORTATION
North Korea has taken steps to upgrade its transportation system in support of its industrial and military needs. Infrastructure improvements are ongoing, with rail and highway repairs and construction projects progressing during the past few years. However, electrical power problems and poor equipment continue to hamper major construction and upgrade projects. The major project during the past 18 months has been the Pyongyang-Nampo expressway, which is probably designed to enhance the movement of goods should trade be opened through the port of Nampo. At the same time, it could also be used to transport troops during a defense against an amphibious attack on the West Coast. The transportation system, which includes a 30,000 kilometer highway system (15% paved) and a 5,000 kilometer rail network (mostly single track) could support initial combat operations during wartime; however, the infrastructure would experience difficulties supporting sustained operations. Rugged terrain; limited east-west routes; numerous bridges, tunnels, and other chokepoints; and inferior road surface types would be limiting factors during combat operations.

The summit related promises of massive road, rail, and electrical infrastructure improvements poses an dilemma for the ROK. Without any simultaneous reduction in the DPRK’s conventional military capability, such infrastructure improvements enhance the North's ability to rapidly mobilize and invade south with minimum warning.
LOGISTICS AND SUSTAINABILITY
1. During the Korean War, lack of adequate logistics hampered North Korea’s military forces and kept them from completely controlling the peninsula. After the war, sustainability of its military forces became a primary requirement of the North’s military doctrine. Pyongyang continues to implement military doctrine that calls for maintaining war reserves for all classes of supply for six months of sustainability for regular forces and three months for reserve units and paramilitary forces. A major increase in the number of active forces and the deployment of many new types of weapons systems in the past 20 years complicate this doctrine; however, North Korea’s massive war reserve stockpiles continue to expand despite the tremendous cost to its economic structure and hardship to its people. 2. North Korea is expanding its ammunition and equipment storage capacities by building additional hardened and underground facilities and enlarging existing facilities. Major national-level storage installations have been built, and construction of unit-level storage depots continues, especially near the DMZ. Current ammunition stockpiles are estimated at over one million tons. A major military POL war reserve exists, despite the severe shortage of fuel supplies for the civil economy. Substantial food and combat ration war reserves are stockpiled, despite widespread starvation and malnourishment in recent years. 3. North Korea has over 200,000 vehicles, 1,000 locomotives, and over 20,000 railcars that are mostly nonmilitary but would be mobilized to support a conflict. Much of this transportation is tied to reserve force units that would provide a substantial part of the logistic support required by military forces and would move personnel, ammunition, and supplies into the ROK during a conflict. Truck transportation units would provide a full range of support. Rail assets would provide heavy-lift capacity to move armor, self-propelled artillery, and resupply from national depots. Merchant and fishery vessels would support naval forces and ground troops along the peninsula’s coastal waters, and the civil air transport fleet would be mobilized to carry troops and high-value cargo and possibly for aerial delivery of chemical and biological warfare agents. FORCE IMPROVEMENTS North Korea continues to improve its military. In the last 12 months, North Korea has worked hard to arrest a decline in readiness and to improve its military capability. Highlighting these enhancements is an ambitious program to improve ground forces capabilities. A key component of this initiative involves the deployment of large numbers of long-range 240mm multiple rocket launcher systems and 170mm self-propelled guns to hardened sites located near the Demilitarized Zone. Other force improvements include emplacement of anti-tank barriers in the forward area, establishment of combat positions along major routes between Pyongyang and the Demilitarized Zone, repositioning of key units, beefing up of coastal defense forces in the forward area, construction of missile support facilities, preparations for extended range missile testing, and procurement of fighter aircraft. Applying lessons from US operations in Europe and Southwest Asia, the North Koreans have modified key facility defenses, dispersed forces, and improved an already impressive camouflage, concealment, and deception effort. Summer and fall 1999 training levels were extremely high. Key activities during the 1999-2000 winter training cycle were at record levels and demonstrated a concerted effort to improve readiness. Additionally, early indicators reflect that this summer training cycle (Calendar Year 2000) may well be headed toward near record levels. Production of limited numbers of military equipment, to include missiles, aircraft, submarines, and artillery systems also continues.

[TexasPatriot8]

That seems like an uncertain thing. Statistically, I would be surprised if the North had more than a half hour of free shots at Seoul before they started taking heavy losses. And the North can't replace men and material like the North and her allies can. But with Seoul, that's the down side to it being so close to the border.

There would surely be heavy damage, but the Koreans are very tough resiliant people. The Japanese treid to conquer them for hundreds of years and never did until WWII. With all the advanced listening posts we have there, and covert agents we are certain to have in North Korea, I wouldn't rule out the possibility that we would know about a first strike attack before it happend. I think that is being overlooked here also. The South Koreans have been sending over spies to the north for decades. So have the south, but the edge in that competition goes to the South. And our superior air power is a huge asset if the North launches a first strike. Night fighting tech makes our planes even better than in the day time, and so we could start picking off the North's platforms at will, and it would be very difficult for them to move, or defend themselves. If the North was stupid enough to launch a first strike they better get their shots in early, because I wouldn't give a cup of warm spit for their chances of having any kind of half way decent offensive artillery, armored, or air force after three to five days of fighting with us, IF we're only going in against the North Koreans. If the Chinese decide to jump in, well. That's a whole different can of ugly.

[garbageseeker]

North Korea fields an artillery force of over 12,000 self-propelled and towed weapon systems. Without moving any artillery pieces, the North could sustain up to 500,000 rounds an hour against Combined Forces Command defenses for several hours. The artillery force includes 500 long-range systems deployed over the past decade. The proximity of these long-range systems to the Demilitarized Zone threatens all of Seoul with devastating attacks.

It says in the report to Congress.

[garbageseeker]

It also proves my thesis on post 84

[TexasPatriot8]

Hey that's okay. I sure didn't mean to make it sound like it was a trivial situation there. Really, my initial comment was kinda just a passing one. It was simplistic, but I was more talking about a kinda passing glance at the situation, primarily through the "eyes" of the ICBM scenario. I don't see Il, nutso as he is, as willing to throw it all away on a nuclear missile program that he knows leads only to two places. Dead and out of power, or in prison awaiting execution for war crimes against his people and the South, and out of power. Despots love their power above all things, and I think he'd much rather die while in power after years of maintaining a stand off, trying to look like a tough guy with his nuclear program.

Like others have mentioned, I'm not totally convinced that this isn't just a rouse by the Chinese, seeing if they can bait us into something, or check out our capabilities in responding to a NK missile launch, and then respond publicly, "Gaw-ree, we no be-weev he did dat!" I'd be surprised if in 30 years, there wasn't a military conflict of some sort between the U.S. and China. I think it will be over Taiwan instead of North Korea. It behooves the Chinese to have N.K. there so they don't have U.S. troops right on their border there.

That makes Afghanistan kinda interesting. There iis that tiny little sliver in the NE of Afghanistan that borders far Western China. I wonder how close to that border our troops have come. It would be the first time U.S. troops bordered Chinese troops since the Korean War, and that was when they were shooting at each other. Kinda eerie.

[TexasPatriot8]

Yes they did, and do. My Dad told me some really colorful stories about them from his time there over the years. I'd rather poke a bear with a stick in the woods at night than go up against those guys. They'll rip you eight ways from Sunday and just be getting warmed up. We really should get some of them to go to Iraq and have them search for terrorist hideouts. :) Boy I'd go for that big time.

[TexasPatriot8]

I'm not just talking about the radiation. When you consider the condition of North Korea, if that happened there, they'd lose a lot of people and material that they can't replace. And it would take generations to recover the people lost. The loss of people and material and the overall effect it would have on the North's already terrible economy and infra structure would practically send the country back to the 1800's in some ways. And radiation drifts. Plus, we don't know 100% for certain what kind of radioactive material they're using for their nukes. The radioactivity in the area after detonation could be much longer than just a decade. Iran wouldn't suffer as bad as North Korea if that happened since it's a much larger nation, with more spread out population centers, and large uninhabited areas hundreds of miles from cities to build the weapons. North Korea could be damaged far more if they had a self-inflicted nuclear detonation.

[TexasPatriot8]

Yeah but the thing is, all the talking the Bush administration is doing with Iran and North Korea is because the democrats and the UN are convinced that will work with them. I've never heard anyone in the administration say they really think talking and negotiating will work with Iran or North Korea. And if they fail, which it basically already has failed with North Korea, because of the lefts insistance on talks, it will be the fault of the liberals and the UN who insisted on unilateral talks.

It won't work blaming Bush for talking to long to North Korea or Iran, since it was the democrats who demanded talking instead of military action. And they can't have it both ways with the American voter. They said we should have talked to Iraq instead of using miliary action, and say we should use military action against Iran and North Korea instead of talking. Can't have it both ways. Talking did no good with Iraq for over a decade and 18 UN resolutions, and it will be that much of a dismal failure with Iran and North Korea. In the end, military action is the only real way to deal with those kinds of despots with nuclear weapons programs. They like to talk because to them, talk gives them time to finish their programs. And like in North Korea, they have nukes now because the liberals insisted Bush talk to them. Iraq definitely doesn't have nukes because Bush did it his way. The liberal way just doesn't work. Multi-lateral talks and negotiations with people like that is just a more diplomatic way of saying "wait and see". And if history has taught us anything, it's that "wait and see"ers will get you had every time. I refer to those before Pearl Harbor who predicted that attack, and went ignored, and in the case of General Mitchell, was run out of the Army because he so strongly pushed the idea of a Pearl Harbor attack, after a simulated attack against the Panama Canal using the Langly and old bi-planes.