First it is obvious that Nancy Pelosi got Murtha to carry tht "Surrender Now" water, because Murtha has one of the saftest seats in the house. Look at the shape of the 12th district. It is the most gerrymandered thing you can imagine. Plus it has a 2 to 1 Demoratic edge in registered voters. With moderates it has to be a 70 to 30 or better Democratic district.
Usually I argue against trying to defeat a Democrat where the odds are that long. It is usually a waste of time, money, and effort, but that is not the way I see this race.
Let us say that if Murtha is defeated by Diana Lynn Irey, the repercussions in the Democratic party would be beyond belief.
But what if Murtha instead of winning 72 to 28 wins 55 to 45. This is a district in which a Democrat should win by at least 70 to 30. A 55 to 45 result would prove that in a majority of districts Gerrymandered 54 to 46 to elect a Democrat, a Democrat taking Murtha's positions would lose big time. That would scare the stuffing out of 2/3 of the Democratic members of the house. If most Democrats lose 15 percent of their support they are history. And a 55 to 45 Murtha win in the 12th would prove that to a lot of Democrats. None of them would likely come with in 5 miles of Murtha. His influence on other Democrats would be, in effect, zero. His surrender now position would get far less than 59 votes in the house.
Murtha is taking the risk becuase if the "Bring the Troops Home" ploy fails he believes he will still hold his seat. But if he suceeds, he will be the big dog in the Democrat House. It is our job to see that he does not succeed.
What Murtha has to know is that if he wins by a much smaller margin than ususal, he will prove the Anti War ploy is a loser for Democrats.
In most districts there may be difficulty determining what cost a candidate votes. This fall it could be immigraion, the war, gas prices and in many districts local issues.
In the Pennsylvania 12th, the issue is Murtha's position of "Surrender Now and Avoid the Rush Later".
If it can be shown by the election returns that Murtha has cost himself a lot of support that will change the minds of a lot of Democrats.
It would be wonderful to defeat Murtha. But even if all Ivey can do is make it a fairly close contest, it will scare the crap out of a lot of Democrats. And even if the Democrats managed to take the house, not many would want to follow the Murtha plan for Iraq.
It is not likely the RNC will do much to help Ivey at this point. They are always structured to help those who have the best chance of winning. It will be up to us to help her make the race against Murtha competitive.
I do know this if the Ivey / Murtha race becomes competitive in the final weeks, the Republican party will be surprised and pleased.
Neither Republicans or Democrats do much of anything in 70 to 30 districts. Lets make this one an exception.
Our goal as Ivey supporters should be to do what every we can to help her become competitive. If that can be done, she will have all the help she needs.
I disagree with this point. Kerry only took 51% in 2004 in PA-12. There were a lot of folks pulling the lever for Bush and Murtha. They'll not be too amused this time around. Murtha has been relatively conservative over the years - pro life and pro military (although with a pronounced yellow streak). With his horrific actions he's almost certainly lost a good chunk of those conservative votes.
If this were an open seat, the Democrat would need to run a very solid race to win, IMHO.