I disagree with this point. Kerry only took 51% in 2004 in PA-12. There were a lot of folks pulling the lever for Bush and Murtha. They'll not be too amused this time around. Murtha has been relatively conservative over the years - pro life and pro military (although with a pronounced yellow streak). With his horrific actions he's almost certainly lost a good chunk of those conservative votes.
If this were an open seat, the Democrat would need to run a very solid race to win, IMHO.
I have NEVER looked back at a race won and told myself I was foolish for thinking this race was going to be very hard to win. I have never been unhappy for trying to prevent every possible way I could face defeat. I have never heard of any candidate chewing himself out for thinking the task was bigger and larger than it turned out to be.
I have met hundreds if not thousands of candidates and supporters who told themselves the job was easier than it turned out to be and as a result lost the race. They are always filled with recriminations after the fact.
I can't recall a candidate with a 2 to 1 registration advantage and a long time in office losing a race, no matter what happened in a previous presidential race... or what the incumbent did short of being caught in bed with a live boy or a dead girl.
The dumbest thing a Murtha challenger can do is tell the voters they made a mistake 2 years ago electing Murtha. I can tell you that attacking Murtha as a yellow backed turn coat will not work. The people that voted for him will take that as an attack on their judgement. It is just human nature.
People defend past actions. Let me say it again. It is just plain old human nature. I suspect that the Ivey campaign will try to attack Murtha for his war stand. That has to be very carefully done or it will blow up in her face.
Telling people they did wrong by electing Murtha 2 years ago is a huge mistake. People will react by rationalizing their vote for Murtha in 2004 and repeat it in 2006.
I wonder if anyone in the Ivey campaign knows diddly sqwat about how to defeat a man who has held a post for 32 years. From what I have seen and read so for, I am not sure anyone in her campaign does.
You greatly underestimate the difficulty you face in defeating a 32 year incumbent. You will have a hell of time convincing people who have voted multiple times for Murtha that they have made a mistake in supporting him.
This is Not a Bush-Kerry race. This is a race where no one has ever voted for Ivey and nearly every voter has voted for Murtha. Get the Bush- kerry race out of the head of every Ivey supporter or you will face massive defeat on election day. Think of what the Bush Kerry race would have been if most voters had voted for Kerry from 4 to 16 times before.
Try to think like a person who has voted for MURTHA at least 6 times and was happy to have done so. If Ivey's campaign manager can do that and effect a campaign pitch that takes that into consideration they just might pull off an upset.
I know it is hard to resist the impluse to think that others are motivated by what motivates you. But I can tell you that I learned from the school of hard knocks to never ever do that.