Yep. It moved things around a bit but the equilibrium is the same as it has been since I was old enough to pay attention. The War on Drugs does not factor into casual drug use at all except indirectly as second-order consequences. Drugs are still widely available and people still use them. The War on Drugs simply does not enter the calculus when people decide to use drugs. Casual drug users tend to worry far more about the health and social effects than whether or not the government approves. On the other hand, social factors unrelated to the WoD have been shown to have an impact on drug use. And the WoD has taken a pretty serious toll on US society itself.
The problem is that many people (and the government) conflate reducing drug availability with reducing drug use, which are two very different issues and with the former having no obvious positive impact on the latter and the government fixating on the former. Reducing drug availability is fine, but lets not pretend that it is generating the desired result -- we need to be doing something else to reduce drug use. Unfortunately, we only have finite resources, so less effective programs will need to be eliminated to free up resources for more effective programs.
Yep. It moved things around a bit but the equilibrium is the same as it has been since I was old enough to pay attention.
That constant, meanwhile how many tax dollars have been wasted and how many lives have been diminished or ruined as result of drug prohibition? The cost is huge. Sixty billion dollars a year that the government spends isn't even half the cost when you factor in the crime and violence of the black market that drug prohibition facilitated. Not to mention the opportunity cost of people being imprisoned rather than working productive jobs and money wasted on fines and lawyer fees rather than being invested in various markets where capital gains are often compunded.
If you started paying attention about 15 years ago, yeah, drug use has been relatively flat. But drug use dropped 60% from its high in 1979, leading me to believe that it could go right back to where it was not that long ago.
"and the government fixating on the former"
They're not. About half the federal ONDCP budget goes towards anti-drug advertising, drug education, and drug treatment programs -- the "demand" side.
"The War on Drugs simply does not enter the calculus when people decide to use drugs."
Certainly with some people, that's obvious.
But I do not agree that legalization would not result in increased use. Given the fact that legalization, today, implies societal acceptance and given the fact that the price of drugs would drop dramatically, I believe existing users would use more, we'd see an increase in the number of adult users, and we'd see a doubling of teen use.
We've seen a slight increase in the number of users in the last five years, and I believe it's due to a relaxation of our state criminal drugs laws (decriminalization) and the recent trend of states recognizing medical marijuana.
"On the other hand, social factors unrelated to the WoD have been shown to have an impact on drug use."
I agree. That's certainly part of it. And what kind of message would society be sending if it says that recreational drugs, illegal for almost a century, are now legal? You're asking me to believe that people would simply shrug their shoulders and go on with their lives? I do not believe that, and I find it hard to believe that you do.